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121.
Balázs Rosivall 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》2008,62(6):1037-1042
In avian sex ratio studies, results often differ between species and between populations within species. Some researchers
argued that positive results were simply statistical artefacts and that sex ratio adjustment did not exist. However, many
of the proposed mechanisms of sex ratio adjustment result in costly laying gaps. In these cases, females laying large clutches
may restrict the sex manipulation to the first egg of the clutch. Consequently, detectability of sex ratio adjustment on the
level of the clutch can be low. Though obvious, this fact is often neglected in the literature. Using simulations, I show
that the proportion of undetected sex manipulation can be surprisingly high when the manipulation is restricted to the first
egg. If the sample size is 50 broods, there is 47% and 71% chance in 6- and 12-egg clutches, respectively, that sex manipulation
is undetected. Even with large samples (n = 100), the figures are 15% and 46%. These data suggest that nonsignificant results for clutch sex ratios do not necessarily
mean that sex is not manipulated in a portion of the brood, e.g. in first-laid eggs. Hence, whenever possible, data on laying
order-specific sex manipulation should also be collected. Without such data, contradictory results on brood sex ratios should
be interpreted cautiously. 相似文献
122.
PM_(2.5), formally defined as particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 μm, is one of most harmful air pollutants threatening human health. Numerous epidemiological studies have shown that both short-term and long-term exposures to PM_(2.5) are strongly linked with respiratory diseases. In this study, various types of spatio-temporal data were collected and used to estimate the spatio-temporal variation of PM_(2.5) exposure in Beijing in 2014. The seasonal and daily variation of the population-weighted exposure level(PWEL) in 2014 was estimated and compared. The results show that the population exposure to ambient air pollution differs significantly in the four seasons, and the exposure levels in winter and spring are notably higher than the other seasons; the exposure level changes greatly from North to South, and each sub-district maintains similarity to neighboring sub-districts. 相似文献
123.
Edwards NC 《Journal of Safety Research》2011,42(6):537-541
There is a growing body of research about the etiology and prevention of falls. However, the persistently high incidence of falls among seniors calls for renewed efforts to develop, test, implement, and scale-up fall prevention strategies for older adults. This paper considers advances in the field and describes three priority areas for generating research and translating knowledge on fall prevention. Clinical practice guidelines, systems change approaches and environmental risk factors are discussed. Recommendations include transcending our health sector view of the fall prevention problem, supporting comparative research on system-oriented approaches to fall prevention, and examining ways to sustain and scale-up fall prevention efforts. 相似文献
124.
There is a growing awareness that cyclic population dynamics in vertebrate species are driven by a complex set of interactions rather than a single causal factor. While theory suggests that direct host-parasite interactions may destabilise population dynamics, the interaction between host and parasite may also influence population dynamics through indirect effects that result in delayed responses to either density or to life-history traits. Using empirical data on mountain hares (Lepus timidus) infected with a nematode parasite (Trichostrongylus retortaeformis), we developed an individual-based model (IBM) that incorporated direct effects and delayed life-history effects (DLHEs) of a macroparasite, alternative transmission mechanisms and seasonality in host population dynamics. The full model describes mean characteristics of observed mountain hare time series and parasite abundance, but by systematically removing model structure we dissect out dynamic influences of DLHEs. The DLHEs were weakly destabilising, increasing the propensity for cyclic dynamics and suggesting DLHEs could be important processes in host-parasite systems. Further, by modifying model structure we identify a strong influence of parasite transmission mechanism on host population stability, and discuss the implications for parasite aggregation mechanisms, host movement and natural geographical variation in host population dynamics. The effect of T. retortaeformis on mountain hares likely forms part of a complex set of interactions that lead to population cycles. 相似文献
125.
Restoration of waterbird diversity and abundance is a key objective of river system management in Australia. Therefore, understanding the effects of climatic and hydrological variables on waterbird population dynamics is fundamental for successful river restoration programs. We investigated the population dynamics of waterbirds (total abundance) and seven functional waterbird groups in the floodplains of lower Murrumbidgee River. We found a general declining abundance trend from 1983 to 2007, except for the deep water foragers. We modelled the relative contribution of the climatic and hydrological factors to waterbird population decrease using the generalized additive model (GAM) framework after identifying the negative binomial distribution. Most of the seven functional groups were positively related to both annual rainfall and water usage, defined as the total water volume intercepted by the river reach, and the models indicated that rainfall was slightly more important. Temperature also played a role in waterbird abundance: the maximum summer temperature negatively influenced the abundance of dabbling ducks, shoreline foragers and fish eaters, while the minimum winter temperature positively affected the abundance of dabbling ducks and shoreline foragers. Overall, our results support the practice of providing environmental water for sustaining waterbird populations. However, environmental water provision is likely to be most effective when timed to coincide with antecedent rainfall. 相似文献
126.
Shigehide IwataKazuyuki Kobayashi Shinichiro HigaJin Yoshimura Kei-ichi Tainaka 《Ecological modelling》2011,222(13):2042-2048
The population dynamics of species interactions provides valuable information for life sciences. Lotka-Volterra equations (LVEs) are known to be the most popular model, and they are mainly applied to the systems of predation and competition. However, LVEs often fail to catch the population dynamics of mutualism; the population sizes of species increase infinitely under certain condition (divergence problem). Furthermore, LVEs never predicts the Allee effect in the systems of obligate mutualism. Instead of LVEs, several models have been presented for mutualism; unfortunately, they are rather complicated. It is, therefore, necessary to introduce a simpler theory for mutualism. In the present paper, we apply the lattice gas model which corresponds to the mean-field theory of the usual lattice model. The derived equations are cubic and contain only essential features for mutualism. In the case of obligate mutualism, the dynamics exhibits the Allee effect, and it is almost the same as in the male-female systems. In our model, the population sizes never increase infinitely, because our model contains not only intra- but also interspecific competitions. If the density of one species increases disproportionately in respect of its mutual partners, then this might imply downward pressure on the population abundance of the mutual partner species and such feedback would eventually act as a controlling influence on the population abundance of either species. We discuss several assumptions in our model; in particular, if both species can occupy in each cell simultaneously, then the interspecific competition disappears. 相似文献
127.
Dynamical models usually assume that predation occurs between mature stages and/or between mature and immature stages. In this work a stage-structured discrete time model is developed for a system where intraguild predation takes place only in the course of immature stages of predator and its prey. Therefore, the proposed mathematical setup demands functional relations linking predation in immature life stages with survival and fecundity in mature stages. The behavior of the model is examined in order to investigate the interplay among predator attack rate, its satiation of prey consumption and the success of intraguild predator invasion. 相似文献
128.
Daniel RodríguezJosé Ricardo Cure José Miguel CotesAndrew Paul Gutierrez Fernando Cantor 《Ecological modelling》2011,222(19):3626-3639
This paper is the first of three on the coffee production system consisting of (1) the coffee plant, (2) coffee berry borer (CBB) and (3) the role of CBB parasitoids. A previous simulation model of the coffee plant was developed using data from Brazil where coffee phenology is characterized by distinct seasonal flowering (Gutierrez et al., 1998). In contrast, flowering in Colombia is continuous with low seasonality. To capture the differences in coffee phenology and growth in the two climatic regions, the Gutierrez et al. (1998) model was modified using new data from Colombia.The modifications to the model include:
- (1)
- The effect of solar radiation on floral buds initiation;
- (2)
- An age structure population model to track the daily input and development of the floral buds;
- (3)
- The effect of leaf water potential on breaking dormancy in flower buds, and hence on the timing and intensity of flowering;
- (4)
- The incorporation of both the vegetative and the reproductive demands to predict the photosynthetic rate.
- (5)
- The effect of low temperature on photosynthesis and defoliation.
129.
The effects of the following modes of density-dependent control of population growth: density-dependent birth rate, adult survival rate, juvenile survival rate are compared based on the mathematical model of population dynamics. It is shown that the most efficient mechanisms limiting population size are decreasing with the growth of the adult population birth rate and/or the decreasing survival rate of the offspring with the increase in their number. However, these same mechanisms are responsible for oscillations of the population size and its chaotic change. The density-dependence of the adult survival rate is not efficient in constraining the population growth, but it can substantially limit the magnitude of oscillations of the population size. 相似文献
130.
Several studies have proven the importance of field margins in sustaining biodiversity and other work has been done on the effect of field management on field margin flora. However few models have been built to predict the effects of field management on the flora. Our project addresses this need for a model capable of predicting the effect of cropping techniques and their timing on the flora of field margins. Primula vulgaris is a biodiversity indicator, characteristic of undisturbed flora and found in field margins and woodlands: its population has been declining for several years. We created a temporal matrix model of P. vulgaris populations on field margins, taking into account the effects of field, field margin and roadside management based on literature and expert knowledge. We then analysed its sensitivity to demographic parameters by comparing lambda (growth rate) sensitivity and elasticity. We compared the management parameter effect using the relative growth rate of the population after 6 years of simulation. Sensitivity analysis to biological parameters showed the importance of adult survival and seed production and germination. Results show that P. vulgaris is particularly sensitive to broad-spectrum herbicides and that other management techniques like early mowing, scything and scrub-killer (diluted broad-spectrum herbicide or specific herbicide) are less aggressive. Our simulations show that management of cash crops in Brittany is too aggressive for P. vulgaris populations and that 4-5 years of grassland in the adjacent field are necessary to maintain populations. 相似文献