Floating Population Increase and Its Influence on the Urban Population Situation:A Case Study in Beijing

1 BACKGROUND OF FLOATING POPULATIONIN CHINAChina's urbanization process was influenced mainly bythe government interventions before the adoption of thesocial and economic reform started in 1978. Since thefoundation of the People's Republic of China, thegovernment had strictly controlled the internal migration,especially from rural to urban areas. The ability of thegovernment to make a strong impact on the migrationand urbanization was realized by the household registrationsyste…     

Improving inferences about private land conservation by accounting for incomplete reporting

Private lands provide key habitat for imperiled species and are core components of function protectected area networks; yet, their incorporation into national and regional conservation planning has been challenging. Identifying locations where private landowners are likely to participate in conservation initiatives can help avoid conflict and clarify trade-offs between ecological benefits and sociopolitical costs. Empirical, spatially explicit assessment of the factors associated with conservation on private land is an emerging tool for identifying future conservation opportunities. However, most data on private land conservation are voluntarily reported and incomplete, which complicates these assessments. We used a novel application of occupancy models to analyze the occurrence of conservation easements on private land. We compared multiple formulations of occupancy models with a logistic regression model to predict the locations of conservation easements based on a spatially explicit social–ecological systems framework. We combined a simulation experiment with a case study of easement data in Idaho and Montana (United States) to illustrate the utility of the occupancy framework for modeling conservation on private land. Occupancy models that explicitly accounted for variation in reporting produced estimates of predictors that were substantially less biased than estimates produced by logistic regression under all simulated conditions. Occupancy models produced estimates for the 6 predictors we evaluated in our case study that were larger in magnitude, but less certain than those produced by logistic regression. These results suggest that occupancy models result in qualitatively different inferences regarding the effects of predictors on conservation easement occurrence than logistic regression and highlight the importance of integrating variable and incomplete reporting of participation in empirical analysis of conservation initiatives. Failure to do so can lead to emphasizing the wrong social, institutional, and environmental factors that enable conservation and underestimating conservation opportunities in landscapes where social norms or institutional constraints inhibit reporting.     

A Bayesian hierarchical approach to quantifying stakeholder attitudes toward conservation in the presence of reporting error

Stakeholder support is vital for achieving conservation success, yet there are few reliable mechanisms to monitor stakeholder attitudes toward conservation. Approaches used to assess attitudes rarely account for bias arising from reporting error, which can lead to falsely reporting a positive attitude toward conservation (false-positive error) or not reporting a positive attitude when the respondent has a positive attitude toward conservation (false-negative error). Borrowing from developments in applied conservation science, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify stakeholder attitudes as the probability of having a positive attitude toward wildlife notionally (or in abstract terms) and at localized scales while accounting for reporting error. We compared estimates from our model, Likert scores, and naïve estimates (i.e., proportion of respondents reporting a positive attitude in at least 1 question that was only susceptible to false-negative error) with true stakeholder attitudes through simulations. We then applied the model in a survey of tea estate staff on their attitudes toward Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in the Kaziranga–Karbi Anglong landscape of northeast India. In simulations, Bayesian model estimates of stakeholder attitudes toward wildlife were less biased than naïve estimates or Likert scores. After accounting for reporting errors, we estimated the probability of having a positive attitude toward elephants notionally as 0.85 in the Kaziranga landscape, whereas the proportion of respondents who had positive attitudes toward elephants at a localized scale was 0.50. In comparison, without accounting for reporting errors, naïve estimates of proportions of respondents with positive attitudes toward elephants were 0.69 and 0.23 notionally and at local scales, respectively. False (positive and negative) reporting probabilities were consistently not 0 (0.22–0.68). Regular and reliable assessment of stakeholder attitudes–combined with inference on drivers of positive attitudes–can help assess the success of initiatives aimed at facilitating human behavioral change and inform conservation decision making.     

Gender and career success: A typology and analysis of dual paradigms

Despite women's advancements in the workplace, gender inequality persists. We classify and test two frameworks used to explain gender differences in career success: unequal attributes and unequal effects. The unequal attributes framework suggests that gender is related to other attributes, which result in unequal career outcomes for men and women (i.e., a mediated effect). The unequal effects framework suggests that even when men and women share the same attribute or circumstances, they are rewarded differently, such that individual attributes have unequal effects on career outcomes for men and women (i.e., a moderated effect). We collected survey data from a gender‐balanced sample of 394 business school alumni. Using structural equation modeling to test the unequal attributes framework, we found that work hours, career orientation, having a nonemployed spouse, and working in a predominantly female job were unequal attributes that explained gender differences in career success. Using multigroup path analysis to examine unequal effects, we found that being agentic, married, having children at home, and working in a predominantly female workplace had unequal effects in relation to career success for men and women. We find support for both models across three categories of career success antecedents (i.e., personal, family, and job attributes).     

The control of emigration and its consequences for the survival of populations

Dispersal is the key process enhancing the long-term persistence of metapopulations in heterogeneous and dynamic landscapes. However, any individual emigrating from a occupied patch also increases the risk of local population extinction. The consequences of this increase for metapopulation persistence likely depend on the control of emigration. In this paper, we present results of individual-based simulations to compare the consequences of density-independent (DIE) and density-dependent (DDE) emigration on the extinction risk of local populations and a two-patch metapopulation. (1) For completely isolated patches extinction risk increases linearly with realised emigration rates in the DIE scenario. (2) For the DDE scenario extinction risk is nearly insensitive to emigration as longs as emigration probabilities remain below ≈0.2. Survival chances are up to half an order of magnitude larger than for populations with DIE. (3) For low dispersal mortality both modes of emigration increase survival of a metapopulation by ca. one order of magnitude. (4) For high dispersal mortality only DDE can improve the global survival chances of the metapopulation. (5) With DDE individuals are only removed from a population at high population density and the risk of extinction due to demographic stochasticity is thus much smaller compared to the DIE scenario.With density-dependent emigration prospects of metapopulations survival may thus be much higher compared to a system with density-independent emigration. Consequently, the knowledge about the factors driving emigration may significantly affect our conclusions concerning the conservation status of species.     

Does song reflect age and viability? A comparison between two populations of the great reed warbler Acrocephalus arundinaceus

Song complexity is often regarded as a sexually selected trait that reflects the overall quality of a male. In many passerine species, old males possess larger song repertoires than younger males. This may be either because individual males improve their performance as they get older (longitudinal increase) or because poor singers have reduced viability and, hence, are underrepresented in old age classes (cross-sectional increase). We studied the age dependence of repertoire size and other song traits in a German and a Swedish great reed warbler (Acrocephalus arundinaceus) population. We found marked differences between longitudinal and cross-sectional approaches, as well as between the two study populations. In the German population, we found that syllable switching, a measure of immediate versatility and strophe length, increased with age in a cross-sectional analysis. This was not because birds improved with age (longitudinally) but because syllable switching was positively correlated with male longevity. However, in Sweden, syllable switching seemed to be unrelated to age and longevity. In the Swedish population, individual males increased their repertoire size as they got older (longitudinal increase), but this did not happen in the German population. Hence, two populations, even when belonging to the same subspecies, may differ in whether or not they show delayed song maturation.     

中亚热带次生林成林规律及经营技术研究——Ⅱ.次生林的演替规律

本文研究了湖南省中亚热带次生林的种群动态,建立了静态生命表、存活曲线、结构模型以及材积或生物量动态模型,提出了中亚热带次生林的演替基本模式。     

Using the bootstrap with two-phase adaptive stratified samples from multiple populations at multiple locations

Recently the two-phase adaptive stratified sampling design proposed by Francis (1984) has been extended by Manly et al. (2002) for situations where several biological populations are sampled simultaneously, and where this is done at several different geographical locations in order to estimate population totals or means. The method uses the results from a first phase sample to decide how best to allocate a second phase sample to locations and strata, in order to maximise a criterion (based on estimated coefficients of variation) that measures the accuracy of estimation for population totals, for all variables at all locations. One potential problem with this method is bias in the estimators of the population totals and means. In this paper bootstrapping is considered as a means of overcoming these biases. It is shown using model populations of Pacific walrus and shellfish, based on real data, that bootstrapping is a useful tool for removing about half of the bias. This is also confirmed from some simulations using artificial data.     

Male approach and female avoidance as mechanisms of population discrimination in sagebrush lizards

Reproductive isolation and speciation can result from female choice for particular males. Isolation can also result, however, from male mating preferences or from aggressive encounters which then influence mating decisions. In this study, we use laboratory discrimination trials to study the behavioral mechanisms of population discrimination in sagebrush lizards (Sceloporus graciosus). We specifically ask three questions about population-level discrimination: (1) Does it vary in strength in relation to the geographic distance between the populations? (2) Is it more apparent in inter- or intra-sexual interactions? (3) Does it take the form of attraction or avoidance? We ran 890 trials that tested the ability of male and female sagebrush lizards from one population to discriminate their own population from four other populations. In addition, we utilized both sequential and simultaneous-choice designs, which enabled us to distinguish between attraction and avoidance. We found that most population-level discrimination was exhibited by male lizards preferring to associate with particular types of females, as well as female avoidance of particular types of males. The strength and direction of both discriminations depended on the populations compared and on whether the tests were conducted as sequential- or simultaneous-choice tests, producing a complex relationship between geographic distance and behavioral discrimination. Our results suggest that there are roles for male attraction and female avoidance in population discrimination, reproductive isolation, and speciation.     

Population structure and historical demography of the thorny skate (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Amblyraja radiata</Emphasis>, Rajidae) in the North Atlantic

Population genetic structure of the thorny skate (Amblyraja radiata) was surveyed in >300 individuals sampled from Newfoundland, Iceland, Norway, the Kattegat and the central North Sea. A 290-bp fragment of the mt cytochrome-b gene was first screened by SSCP. Sequences of SSCP haplotypes revealed 34 haplotypes, 14 of which were unique to Iceland, 3 to Newfoundland, 1 to Norway and 3 to the Kattegat. The global F _ST was weak but significant. Removal of the two Kattegat locations, which were the most differentiated, resulted in no significant genetic differentiation. Haplotype diversity was high and evenly distributed across the entire Atlantic (h = 0.8) with the exception of the North Sea (h = 0.48). Statistical parsimony revealed a star-like genealogy with a central widespread haplotype. A subsequent nested clade analysis led to the inference of contiguous expansion with evidence for long distance dispersal between Newfoundland and Iceland. Historical demographic analysis showed that thorny skates have undergone exponential population expansion that started between 1.1 million and 690,000 years ago; and that the Last Glacial Maximum apparently had little effect. These results strongly differ from those of a parallel study of the thornback ray (Raja clavata) in which clear structure and former refugial areas could be identified. Although both species have similar life history traits and overlapping ranges, the continental shelf edge apparently does not present a barrier to migration in A. radiata, as it does for R. clavata.