Resampling methods for estimating dispersion indices in random and adaptive designs

In many surveys in environmental and natural phenomena the aim is to evaluate the heterogeneity, and the skewness of the distribution of the number point-objects in the study area opportunely partitioned in sub-regions. For this purpose, in this paper the estimation of dispersion indices is considered by using simple random sampling and adaptive sampling with initial simple random sampling selected with replacement or without replacement. The jackknife and the bootstrap procedures are proposed in both cases for reducing bias. Finally, both a simulation study and a case study on biological population referred to a Oidium tuckeri contamination in a growing vineyard is performed to assess the accuracy of the proposed estimators.     

Window Sensitivity Functions for Line Transect Sampling

L and width 2w, then by a selection of viewing window is meant a choice of w, with the intent being to search for optimal viewing windows, with the goal in mind of improving variances of estimators of population density, reducing sampling effort, while maintaining the property of unbiasedness. The notions of increasing window sensitivity (IWS) and decreasing window sensitivity (DWS) are introduced, and a method of deriving confidence intervals is discussed.     

PMA-PP分析模型在内河水质科学评价中的应用

针对目前我国城市内河普遍遭到污染的问题,在分析影响内河水质因素的基础上,选取BOD5(五日生化需氧量)、CODcr(化学需氧量)、石油类、挥发酚、NH3-N(氨氮)、总磷等6个主要因素作为评价因子,建立了城市内河水质评价的投影寻踪分析模型,采用人口迁移算法对评价模型进行优化,并将该模型应用于南宁市10条内河水质的评价与排序。研究表明,用投影寻踪回归分析法进行水质评价,避免了传统评价方法由于主观原因造成的误差,评价结果合理可信、方法简单,为我国城市内河水质的评价提供了新途径。     

21世纪人口与资源环境可持续发展的概念和理论(待续)

论述了可持续发展概念的由来,从４个方面对可持续发展的理论进行了详细研究。指出可持续发展概念最本质的创新是改变过去人与自然的对立关系为和谐关系,中国将人口科学研究与可持续发展结合起来是跨世纪的国略。研究指出可持续发展的条件,揭示了人口、环境与发展变得和谐的现实可能性;判断可持续发展水平的高低,可由５个基本要素衡量,其社会应具备５个特征,以朝着更加均衡、和谐、互补的方向进化;指出可持续发展的中心矛盾是持续圈与行为圈的关系问题。     

Use of heterospecific cues by the lizard Platysaurus broadleyi for food location

Flat lizards (Platysaurus broadleyi) at Augrabies Falls National Park, South Africa, are restricted to rocky terrain where the predominant tree is the Namaqua fig (Ficus cordata cordata). P. broadleyi readily feeds on Namaqua figs when they are available, and the lizards sometimes form large (maximum recorded=134) congregations under fruiting fig trees. The distance lizards travel to fruiting trees also exceed normal daily foraging distances. Location of fruiting fig trees by a lizard can have a high pay-off because figs are energetically rich and trees fruit irregularly and asynchronously, resulting in a resource that is available, but unpredictable in time and space. The prediction that bird activity in fig trees provides a cue to the presence of ripe figs was tested experimentally. By placing cages containing birds and empty control cages in trees devoid of fruit, we demonstrated that P. broadleyi are drawn to fig trees with high bird congregations. We also tested if the presence of a fig tree was necessary to draw lizards to bird congregations by placing cages containing birds and empty control cages in a matched-pairs design on rock away from trees. Namaqua fig trees were not necessary to draw lizards to bird congregations. Received: 12 May 1998 / Accepted after revision: 30 November 1998     

Does the African social spider Stegodyphus dumicola control the sex of individual offspring?

By scoring the chromosome number of developing embryos, we show that the sex ratio bias of the African social spider Stegodyphus dumicola Pocock is the result of an overproduction of female embryos. Only 17% of 585 embryos sexed from 14 egg sacs were male, a significant departure from a 1:1 sex ratio. We also explored the possibility of direct control of the sex of individual offspring in this species by examining the variance in the number of males per sac and the spatial distribution of male and female embryos within the sacs. We postulated that a variance in the number of males per sac lower than binomial (i.e., underdispersed or precise sex ratios) or a non-random distribution of male embryos within the sacs would suggest direct control of the sex of individual offspring. We found that the variance in the number of males per sac was indistinguishable from binomial and significantly larger than expected under exact ratios. Likewise, the spatial distribution of male embryos within three sacs examined was no more clustered than expected by chance. The sex ratio biasing mechanism in this species, therefore, apparently only allows control of the mean sex ratio but not of its variance. We present randomization and Monte Carlo methods that can be applied to test for departures from a random spatial arrangement of male and female embryos in an egg mass and for departures from binomial or exact ratios when not all members of a clutch have been sexed. Received: 21 October 1998 / Received in revised form: 23 March 1999 / Accepted: 26 April 1999     

Age group differences in collision risk

Introduction

The purpose of the current study was to examine differences in factors associated with self-reported collision involvement of three age groups of drivers based on a large representative sample of Ontario adults. Method: This study was based on data from the CAMH Monitor, an ongoing cross-sectional telephone survey of Ontario adults 18 years and older from 2002 to 2005. Three age groups were examined: 18-34 (n = 1,294), 35-54 (n = 2,428), and 55+ (n = 1,576). For each age group sample, a logistic regression analysis was conducted of self-reported collision involvement in the last 12 months by risk factor measures of driving exposure (kilometers driven in a typical week, driving is stressful, and driving on busy roads), consuming five or more drinks of alcohol on one occasion (past 12 months), cannabis use (lifetime, and past 12 months), and driving after drinking among drinkers (past 12 months), controlling for demographics (gender, region, income, and marital status). Results: The study identified differences in factors associated with self-reported collision involvement of the three age groups of adult drivers. The logistic regression model for the youngest group revealed that drivers who reported that driving was stressful at least some of the time, drank five or more drinks on an occasion, and drove after drinking had an increased risk of collision involvement. For the middle age group, those who reported using cannabis in the last 12 months had significantly increased odds of reporting collision involvement. None of the risk factor measures showed significant associations with collision risk for older drivers (aged 55+). Impact: The results suggest potential areas for intervention and new directions for future research.     

Effects of site-selection bias on estimates of biodiversity change

Estimates of biodiversity change are essential for the management and conservation of ecosystems. Accurate estimates rely on selecting representative sites, but monitoring often focuses on sites of special interest. How such site-selection biases influence estimates of biodiversity change is largely unknown. Site-selection bias potentially occurs across four major sources of biodiversity data, decreasing in likelihood from citizen science, museums, national park monitoring, and academic research. We defined site-selection bias as a preference for sites that are either densely populated (i.e., abundance bias) or species rich (i.e., richness bias). We simulated biodiversity change in a virtual landscape and tracked the observed biodiversity at a sampled site. The site was selected either randomly or with a site-selection bias. We used a simple spatially resolved, individual-based model to predict the movement or dispersal of individuals in and out of the chosen sampling site. Site-selection bias exaggerated estimates of biodiversity loss in sites selected with a bias by on average 300–400% compared with randomly selected sites. Based on our simulations, site-selection bias resulted in positive trends being estimated as negative trends: richness increase was estimated as 0.1 in randomly selected sites, whereas sites selected with a bias showed a richness change of −0.1 to −0.2 on average. Thus, site-selection bias may falsely indicate decreases in biodiversity. We varied sampling design and characteristics of the species and found that site-selection biases were strongest in short time series, for small grains, organisms with low dispersal ability, large regional species pools, and strong spatial aggregation. Based on these findings, to minimize site-selection bias, we recommend use of systematic site-selection schemes; maximizing sampling area; calculating biodiversity measures cumulatively across plots; and use of biodiversity measures that are less sensitive to rare species, such as the effective number of species. Awareness of the potential impact of site-selection bias is needed for biodiversity monitoring, the design of new studies on biodiversity change, and the interpretation of existing data.     

The global distribution of human population and recent volcanism

Abstract

This study quantifies the spatial relationship between the global distribution of human population and recent volcanism. Using recently compiled databases of population and Holocene volcanoes, we estimate that almost 9% (455 × 10⁶ people) of the world's 1990 population lived within 100km of an historically active volcano and 12% within 100km of a volcano believed to have been active during the last 10,000 years. The analysis also indicates that average population density generally decreases with distance from these volcanoes (within 200 km). In tropical areas, the elevation and fertile soils associated with volcanic regions can provide incentives for agrarian populations to settle close to potentially active volcanoes. In Southeast Asia and Central America higher population densities lie in closer proximity to volcanoes than in other volcanic regions. In Japan and Chile, population density tends to increase with distance from volcanoes. The current trends of rapid urbanization and sustained population growth in tropical developing countries, combined with agricultural intensification of fertile volcanic terrains could alter the relationship between humans and volcanoes so as to increase both local and global consequences of volcanic eruptions in the future.     

Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science

Expert knowledge is used widely in the science and practice of conservation because of the complexity of problems, relative lack of data, and the imminent nature of many conservation decisions. Expert knowledge is substantive information on a particular topic that is not widely known by others. An expert is someone who holds this knowledge and who is often deferred to in its interpretation. We refer to predictions by experts of what may happen in a particular context as expert judgments. In general, an expert-elicitation approach consists of five steps: deciding how information will be used, determining what to elicit, designing the elicitation process, performing the elicitation, and translating the elicited information into quantitative statements that can be used in a model or directly to make decisions. This last step is known as encoding. Some of the considerations in eliciting expert knowledge include determining how to work with multiple experts and how to combine multiple judgments, minimizing bias in the elicited information, and verifying the accuracy of expert information. We highlight structured elicitation techniques that, if adopted, will improve the accuracy and information content of expert judgment and ensure uncertainty is captured accurately. We suggest four aspects of an expert elicitation exercise be examined to determine its comprehensiveness and effectiveness: study design and context, elicitation design, elicitation method, and elicitation output. Just as the reliability of empirical data depends on the rigor with which it was acquired so too does that of expert knowledge.