Factor Biases and Promoting Sustainable Development: Adaptation to Drought in the Senegal River Basin

The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification.     

Super-individuals a simple solution for modelling large populations on an individual basis

Modelling populations on an individual-by-individual basis has proven to be a fruitful approach. Many complex patterns that are observed on the population level have been shown to arise from simple interactions between individuals. However, a major problem with these models is that the typically large number of individuals needed requires impractically large computation times. The common solution, reduction of the number of individuals in the model, can lead to loss of variation, irregular dynamics, and large sensitivity to the value of random generator seeds. As a solution to these problems, we propose to add an extra variable feature to each model individual, namely the number of real individuals it actually represents. This approach allows zooming from a real individual-by-individual model to a cohort representation or ultimately an all-animals-are-equal view without changing the model formulation. Therefore, the super-individual concept offers easy possibilities to check whether the observed behaviour is an artifact of following a limited number of individuals or of lumping individuals, and also to verify whether individual variability is indeed an essential ingredient for the observed behaviour. In addition the approach offers arbitrarily large computational advantages. As an example the super-individual approach is applied to a generic model of the dynamics of a size-distributed consumer cohort as well as to an elaborate applied simulation model of the recruitment of striped bass.     

Genetic population structure and sociogenetic organisation in Formica truncorum (Hymenoptera; Formicidae)

Summary The genetic population structure and the sociogenetic organization of the red wood ant Formica truncorum were compared in two populations with monogynous colonies and two populations with polygynous colonies. The genetic population structure was analysed by measuring allele frequency differences among local subsets of the main study populations. The analysis of sociogenetic organisation included estimates of nestmate queen and nestmate worker relatedness, effective number of queens, effective number of matings per queen, relatedness among male mates of nestmate queens and relatedness between queens and their male mates. The monogynous populations showed no differentiation between subpopulations, whereas there were significant allele frequency differences among the subpopulations in the polygynous population. Workers, queens and males showed the same genetical population structure. The relatedness among nestmate workers and among nestmate queens was identical in the polygynous societies. In three of the four populations there was a significant heterozygote excess among queens. The queens were related to their male mates in the polygynous population analysed, but not in the monogynous ones. The data suggest limited dispersal and partial intranidal mating in the populations with polygynous colonies and outbreeding in the populations having monogynous colonies. Polyandry was common in both population types; about 50% of the females had mated at least twice. The males contributed unequally to the progeny, one male fathering on average 75% of the offspring with double mating and 45–80% with three or more matings. Correspondence to: L. Sundström     

上海南京深圳城市垃圾及处置的比较研究

介绍了上海、南京与深圳人口城市化的特点、城市垃圾的来源及产生量.揭示了垃圾成分的动态变化及有机发酵类废弃物增长较快及"白色污染"加剧的趋势,并提出对策.     

Patterns of Genetic Diversity and Its Loss in Mammalian Populations

Abstract:  Policy aimed at conserving biodiversity has focused on species diversity. Loss of genetic diversity, however, can affect population persistence, evolutionary potential, and individual fitness. Although mammals are a well-studied taxonomic group, a comprehensive assessment of mammalian genetic diversity based on modern molecular markers is lacking. We examined published microsatellite data from populations of 108 mammalian species to evaluate background patterns of genetic variability across taxa and body masses. We tested for loss of genetic diversity at the population level by asking whether populations that experienced demographic threats exhibited lower levels of genetic diversity. We also evaluated the effect of ascertainment bias (a reduction in variability when microsatellite primers are transferred across species) on our assessment of genetic diversity. Heterozygosity did not vary with body mass across species ranging in size from shrews to whales. Differences across taxonomic groupings were noted at the highest level, between populations of marsupial and placental mammals. We documented consistently lower heterozygosity, however, in populations that had experienced demographic threats across a wide range of mammalian species. We also documented a significant ( p = 0.01) reduction in heterozygosity as a result of ascertainment bias. Our results suggest that populations of both rare and common mammals are currently losing genetic diversity and that conservation efforts focused above the population level may fail to protect the breadth of persisting genetic diversity. Conservation policy makers may need to focus their efforts below the species level to stem further losses of genetic resources.     

基于环境承载力的适度人口规模研究——以北海市为例

以北海市为例,以环境承载力的几个主要分量作为人口规模的限制因子,分别计算各限制因子约束下的适度人口规模,根据木桶原理,取最小值作为环境承载力约束下的城市适度人口规模。结果表明,能源和大气环境、水资源和土地资源承载力均不会限制人口规模;在不排海情景下,水环境容量明显不足,在排海情景下,COD和NH_3~-N的环境容量对应的适度人口分别为133.05万人和153.72万人,仍无法满足北海市水环境功能要求。北海市的适度人口规模取决于水环境容量,具体在130~150万之间。     

Trends in anecdotal fox sightings in Tasmania accounted for by psychological factors

There has been little evaluation of anecdotal sightings as a means to confirm new incursions of invasive species. This paper explores the potential for equivocal information communicated by the media to account for patterns of anecdotal reports. In 2001, it was widely reported that red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) had been deliberately released in the island state of Tasmania (Australia), although this claim was later revealed to be baseless. Regardless, by 2013 a total of 3153 anecdotal fox sightings had been reported by members of the public, which implied their distribution was wide. For each month in 2001–2003, we defined a monthly media index (MMI) of fox‐related media coverage, an index of their relative seasonal abundance (abundance), and a factor denoting claims of fox evidence (claimed evidence) regardless of its evidentiary quality. We fitted a generalized linear model with Poisson error for monthly totals of anecdotal sightings with factors of year and claimed evidence and covariates of MMI, abundance, and hours of darkness. The collective effect of psychological factors (MMI, claimed evidence, and year) relative to biophysical factors (photoperiod and abundance) was highly significant (χ² = 122.1, df = 6, p < 0.0001), whereas anticipated changes in abundance had no significant influence on reported sightings (p = 0.15). An annual index of fox media from 2001 to 2010 was strongly associated with the yearly tally of anecdotal sightings (p = 0.018). The odds ratio of sightings ranked as reliable by the fox eradication program in any year decreased exponentially at a rate of 0.00643 as the total number of sightings increased (p < 0.0001) and was indicative of an observer‐expectancy bias. Our results suggest anecdotal sightings are highly susceptible to cognitive biases and when used to qualify and quantify species presence can contribute to flawed risk assessments.     

Challenge of China's Population and Environment and Its Countermeasures

Abstract

The overgrowth of population and deterioration of environment are two serious problems of China. They pose a strong challenge to China's economic and social development. This article discusses the challenge and proposes some countermeasures for China to cope with these problems.     

Effects of two polybrominated diphenyl ethers (BDE-47, BDE-209) on the swimming behavior,population growth and reproduction of the rotifer Brachionus plicatilis

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers(PBDEs) are new kinds of persistent organic pollutants(POPs) and their potential threats to the equilibrium and sustainability of marine ecosystems have raised worldwide concerns. Here, two kinds of PBDEs, tetra-BDE(BDE-47)and deca-BDE(BDE-209) were applied, and their toxic effects on the swimming behavior,population growth and reproduction of Brachionus plicatilis were investigated. The results showed that:(1) The actual concentrations of BDE-47 and-209 in the seawater phase measured by GC–MS(Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometer) were much lower than their nominal concentrations.(2) In accordance with the 24-hr acute tests, BDE-209 did not show any obvious swimming inhibition to rotifers, but a good correlation did exist between the swimming inhibition rate and BDE-47 concentration suggesting that BDE-47 is more toxic than BDE-209.(3) Both BDE-47 and-209 had a significant influence on the population growth and reproduction parameters of B. plicatilis including the population growth rate, the ratio of ovigerous females/non-ovigerous females(OF/NOF), the ratio of mictic females/amictic females(MF/AF), resting egg production and the mictic rate, which indicate that these parameters in B. plicatilis population were suitable for monitoring and assessing PBDEs. Our results suggest that BDE-47 and-209 are not acute lethal toxicants and may pose a low risk to marine rotifers at environmental concentrations for short-term exposure. They also accumulate differently into rotifers. Further research data are needed to understand the mechanisms responsible for the effects caused by PBDEs and to assess their risks accurately.     

Effects of two polybrominated diphenyl ethers (BDE-47, BDE-209) on the swimming behavior, population growth and reproduction of the rotifer Brachionus plicatilis

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are new kinds of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and their potential threats to the equilibrium and sustainability of marine ecosystems have raised worldwide concerns. Here, two kinds of PBDEs, tetra-BDE (BDE-47) and deca-BDE (BDE-209) were applied, and their toxic effects on the swimming behavior, population growth and reproduction of Brachionus plicatilis were investigated. The results showed that: (1) The actual concentrations of BDE-47 and -209 in the seawater phase measured by GC-MS (Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometer) were much lower than their nominal concentrations. (2) In accordance with the 24-hr acute tests, BDE-209 did not show any obvious swimming inhibition to rotifers, but a good correlation did exist between the swimming inhibition rate and BDE-47 concentration suggesting that BDE-47 ismore toxic than BDE-209. (3) Both BDE-47 and -209 had a significant influence on the population growth and reproduction parameters of B. plicatilis including the population growth rate, the ratio of ovigerous females/non-ovigerous females (OF/NOF), the ratio of mictic females/amictic females (MF/AF), resting egg production and the mictic rate, which indicate that these parameters in B. plicatilis population were suitable for monitoring and assessing PBDEs. Our results suggest that BDE-47 and -209 are not acute lethal toxicants and may pose a low risk to marine rotifers at environmental concentrations for short-term exposure. They also accumulate differently into rotifers. Further research data are needed to understand the mechanisms responsible for the effects caused by PBDEs and to assess their risks accurately.