Air pollution effects on hospital admissions: a statistical analysis of parallel time series

A statistical model for longitudinal count data is used to examine the potential adverse health effects of ambient air pollution. Daily respiratory admissions to 164 acute care hospitals in Ontario are obtained for the period 1983 to 1988. Estimates of ozone levels in the vicinity of each hospital are determined from air pollution monitoring stations maintained by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. Generalized estimating equation methods are used to make inferences about the regression and overdispersion parameters. The admission data display little evidence of serial correlation and extra Poisson variation. However, admission rates vary considerably among hospitals. This latter source of variation needs to be taken into account in examining the effects of air pollution on respiratory health status.     

Robust benchmark dose determination based on profile score methods

We investigate several methods commonly used to obtain a benchmark dose and show that those based on full likelihood or profile likelihood methods might have severe shortcomings. We propose two new profile likelihood-based approaches which overcome these problems. Another contribution is the extension of the benchmark dose determination to non full likelihood models, such as quasi-likelihood, generalized estimating equations, which are widely used in settings such as developmental toxicity where clustered data are encountered. This widening of the scope of application is possible by the use of (robust) score statistics. Benchmark dose methods are applied to a data set from a developmental toxicity study.     

Implications of network particle tracking (NPT) for ecological model interpretation

Network particle tracking (NPT), building on the foundation of network environ analysis (NEA), is a new development in the definition of coherence relations within and between connected systems. This paper evaluates three ecosystem models in a comparison of throughflow- and storage-based NEA and NPT. Compartments in models with high indirect effects and Finn cycling showed low correlation of NEA storage and throughflow with particle repeat visits and numbers of particles in compartments at steady state. Conversely, the correlation between NEA and NPT results was high with two models having lower indirect effects and Finn cycling. Analysis of ecological orientors associated with NEA showed NPT to fully support conventional NEA results when the common conditions of donor control and steady state are satisfied. Particle trajectories are recorded in the new concept of a particle “passport”. Ability to track and record particle in-system histories enables views of multiple scales and opens the possibility of making pathway-dependent modeling decisions. NPT may also enable modeling of time, allowing integration of Newtonian, organismal and stochastic modeling perspectives in a single comprehensive analysis.     

NONLINEAR DUPUIT EQUATIONS FOR THE PHREATIC SURFACE OF A SEMI-INFINITE AQUIFER1

ABSTRACT. We present a new approach to the nonlinear equations for the phreatic surface of groundwater flow from or into a reservoir. The differential equation is converted into an equivalent integral equation, which is then solved by a method of iteration. We obtain exact results for both drawdown and infiltration, including the special case of groundwater penetration into dry soil.     

Generation and Quantification of Hazardous Dusts from Coal Mining in the Indian Context

The increasing trend of opencast coal mining in India tends to release huge amounts of dust. But there is no well-defined method of estimating dust emission due to different coal mining activities. This paper examines the sources of dust emission due to coal mining activities, and focuses on the quantification of dust emission with the development and use of emission factors. Because of their site-specific nature, emission factors developed for one site may not give the correct results for another site. In the present investigation, prediction equations are utilized for the development of emission factors. For the applications of this concept, one large opencast coal project of Bharat Coking Coal Ltd. (BCCL) was investigated, and the total amount of dust emitted due to different mining activities was calculated by the utilization of emission factor data, which was estimated to be 9368.2 kg/day. This paper also focuses on the significance of this study in the field of environmental protection and likely impacts of such study. The paper concludes that once the amount of dust generation is estimated, the impact on air quality can be assessed appropriately and a proper air-pollution control strategy can be developed.     

ESTIMATING STREAMFLOW AND ASSOCIATED HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY,THE MID‐ATLANTIC REGION,USA1

ABSTRACT: Methods to estimate streamflow and channel hydraulic geometry were developed for unpaged streams in the Mid‐Atlantic Region. Observed mean annual streamflow and associated hydraulic geometry data from 75 gaging stations in the Appalachian Plateau, the Ridge and Valley, and the Piedmont Physiographic Provinces of the Mid‐Atlantic Region were used to develop a set of power functions that relate streamflow to drainage area and hydraulic geometry to streamflow. For all three physiographic provinces, drainage area explained 95 to 98 percent of the variance in mean annual streamflow. Relationships between mean annual streamflow and water surface width and mean flow depth had coefficients of determination that ranged from R²= 0.55 to R²= 0.91, but the coefficient of determination between mean flow velocity and mean annual streamflow was lower (R²= 0.44 to R²= 0.54). The advantages of using the regional regression models to estimate streamflow over a conceptual model or a water balance model are its ease of application and reduced input data needs. The prediction of the regression equations were tested with data collected as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). In addition, equations to transfer streamflow from gaged to ungaged streams are presented.     

压入式局部通风工作面风流分布数值模拟研究

笔者应用三维k -ε紊流模型描述压入式局部通风工作面风流的流动过程 ,并采用控制容积法导出了描述流体流动方程的离散化方程式 ;用计算流体力学的方法求得了三维k -ε紊流模型的数值解。采用SIMPLE(压力耦合方程式的半阴解法 )算法解算流场 ;TDMA(三对角线算法 )和Gauss Seidel法结合通过线顺法求解离散方程。利用弱松弛法防止非线性方程组迭代求解过程中的发散现象 ,获得了掘进工作面空间的速度分布 ;并将模拟解算结果与在具有实际尺寸的拱形巷道模型中测得的实验结果进行了对比。数值计算结果与模型实验测定结果非常一致 ,验证了笔者的数学模型和数值模拟方法的正确性。     

The Time Invariance Principle,the absence of ecological chaos,and a fundamental pitfall of discrete modeling

This paper is to show that most discrete models used for population dynamics in ecology are inherently pathological that their predications cannot be independently verified by experiments because they violate a fundamental principle of physics. The result is used to tackle an on-going controversy regarding ecological chaos. Another implication of the result is that all dynamical systems must be modeled by differential equations. As a result it suggests that researches based on discrete modeling must be closely scrutinized and the teaching of calculus and differential equations must be emphasized for students of biology.     

Quantifying the effect of strong ignition sources on particle preconditioning and distribution in the 20-L chamber

Computational fluid dynamics is used to investigate the preconditioning aspect of overdriving in dust explosion testing. The results show that preconditioning alters both the particle temperature and distribution prior to flame propagation in the 20-L chamber. A parametric study gives the fluid pressure and temperature, and particle temperature and concentration at an assumed flame kernel development time (10 ms) for varying ignitor size and particle diameter. For the 10 kJ ignitor with 50% efficiency, polyethylene particles under 50 μm reach 400 K and may melt prior to flame propagation. Gases from the ignitor detonation displace the dust from the center of the chamber and may increase local particle concentration up to two times the nominal value being tested. These effects have important implications for explosive testing of dusts in the 20-L chamber and comparing to larger 1-m³ testing, where these effects may be negligible.