Importance of landscape heterogeneity to wood storks in Florida Everglades

Declines in populations of and reproductive success of wood storks and other wading birds have occurred in the Florida Everglades over the past several decades. These declines have been concurrent with major changes in the Everglades’ landscape characteristics. Among the plausible hypotheses that relate to landscape change are the following: (1) general loss of habitat; (2) heavy loss of specific habitat, namely, short-hydroperiod wetlands that provide high prey availability early in the breeding season; and (3) an increase in frequency of major drying out of the central slough areas, which can affect prey availability late in the breeding season. These three hypotheses were compared using an individual-based model of wood stork (Mycteria americana) reproduction. This model simulated the behavior and energetics of each individual wood stork in a breeding colony on 15-min time intervals. Changes in water depth and prey availability occurred on daily time steps. Simulation results showed a threshold response in reproductive success to reduction of wetland heterogeneity. Model comparisons in which (1) only short-hydroperiod wetlands were removed and (2) wetlands of both long and short hydroperiods were removed showed that, for the same loss of total area, the specific habitat removal caused a much greater reduction in wood stork reproduction, indicating hypothesis 2 may be a more likely explanation than hypothesis 1. Reduction of initial prey availability in the central slough areas (simulating frequent drying; hypothesis 3) reduced fledging success by an average of more than 90% in the model.     

利用模糊集理论评价公路客运站安全管理工作

利用模糊集理论建立一种模糊综合评价方法来评价交通运输系统内部的公路客运站安全管理工作。分别通过评价语言变量和权重语言变量将评价指标体系的定性指标和定量指标及权重全部转化成三角形模糊数,克服定性与定量指标不具有可比性的缺点,使评价更客观、精确。基于最优度概念,将权重模糊评价矩阵转化成模糊单一评价矩阵,避免传统模糊数之间比较的复杂性和不精确性。考虑到评价者在模糊评价环境下对风险的态度,将乐观系数引入评价的过程。采用TOPSIS方法计算出评价方案的综合评价分数并进行排序。结合桂林市10个客运站安全管理工作评价实例,通过改变权重值对评价结果进行敏感性分析。方法概念清晰,计算过程直观与简单,评价结果公正与合理,不但可在交通系统内推广,同样也可适合于其他各领域模糊环境下的评价问题。     

The influence of system complexity on bacterial transport in saturated porous media

A series of miscible-displacement column experiments were conducted under saturated flow conditions to systematically investigate the influence of physical and biological complexity on bacterial activity and fate in the presence and absence of a non-sorbing growth substrate, salicylate. Bacterial elution was monitored for three different systems; System I--a sterilized, inoculated, well-sorted sand, System II--a sterilized, inoculated, heterogeneous loamy sand (Hayhook), and System III--two different unsterilized loamy sands (Hayhook and Vinton) each with their associated indigenous microbial community. Results show that System I behaved ideally with respect to both cell and substrate transport, wherein: (1) growth occurred in response to substrate addition, (2) cell elution increased in response to the substrate pulse, and (3) breakthrough curves were reproducible for both substrate and cell elution. In contrast, System II showed ideal behavior with respect to substrate transport but showed variable behavior for cell transport. Further, there was no measurable growth in response to substrate addition and no increase in cell elution during the salicylate pulse. System III exhibited non-ideal behavior for both substrate and cell transport. Of particular interest is the fact that the indigenous communities of the two soils behaved differently. Specifically, for the Hayhook soil, an increased elution response was observed for the heterotrophic population while the salicylate-degrading community was preferentially retained in the column. In contrast for the Vinton soil, the substrate pulse did not elicit an elution response from either the heterotrophic or salicylate-degrading community from the culturable, indigenous Vinton microorganisms. For Systems II and III, the observed variability appears to be associated with the biological component of the system, since sterile controls were reproducible. This type of systematic study is critical for understanding cell and substrate transport behavior in complex, heterogeneous systems, and illustrates the potential uncertainty associated with measurements in such systems.     

莲花湖库区落叶松水源涵养林土壤入渗性能的空间分布特征

以莲花湖库区落叶松水源涵养林为研究对象,由入渗速率拟合入渗模型,运用地统计学理论与方法对模型参数进行空间异质性分析。结果表明:采用Philip公式对入渗过程进行数学模拟最佳,模型参数吸渗率和稳渗率均服从对数正态分布,空间相关性强,结构比分别为0.867、0.759,变程分别为29.13 m、6.16 m,分维数分别为1.786、1.970。两者块金值都很小,小尺度内非连续性变异不明显,空间分布格局相类似,空间自相关范围内呈极显著正相关关系,相关系数R为0.48。二者相比,吸渗率空间自相关尺度大,空间分布较简单;稳渗率均一性差,空间分布复杂,破碎化程度高。     

Spatial distribution of archaeal and bacterial ammonia oxidizers in the littoral buffer zone of a nitrogen-rich lake

The spatial distribution and diversity of archaeal and bacterial ammonia oxidizers (AOA and AOB) were evaluated targeting amoA genes in the gradient of a littoral buffer zone which has been identified as a hot spot for N cycling. Here we found high spatial heterogeneity in the nitrification rate and abundance of ammonia oxidizers in the five sampling sites. The bacterial amoA gene was numerically dominant in most of the surface soil but decreased dramatically in deep layers. Higher nitrification potentials were detected in two sites near the land/water interface at 4.4-6.1 μg NO₂^--N/(g dry weight soil·hr), while only 1.0-1.7 μg NO₂^--N/(g dry weight soil·hr) was measured at other sites. The potential nitrification rates were proportional to the amoA gene abundance for AOB, but with no significant correlation with AOA. The NH4 + concentration was the most determinative parameter for the abundance of AOB and potential nitrification rates in this study. Higher richness in the surface layer was found in the analysis of biodiversity. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that most of the bacterial amoA sequences in surface soil were affiliated with the genus of Nitrosopira while the archaeal sequences were almost equally affiliated with Candidatus ‘Nitrososphaera gargensis’ and Candidatus ‘Nitrosocaldus yellowstonii’. The spatial distribution of AOA and AOB indicated that bacteria may play a more important role in nitrification in the littoral buffer zone of a N-rich lake.     

Factors affecting the distribution of microplastics in soils of China

● Microplastic (MP) abundance in soil of China was highly heterogeneous. ● MP abundance was higher near large rivers and central land affected by monsoons. ● MP abundance was correlated with longitude, mulching film, and average temperature. ● Factors suitable for predicting MP pollution using models were discussed. Microplastics (MPs) are found worldwide in high abundance, posing a potential threat to ecosystems. Despite the ubiquity of MPs in the environment, very little is known about the regional distribution of MPs and underlying factors affecting this distribution in the field, which likely include human activity, but also features of the environment itself. Here, out of a total of 1157 datapoints investigated in 53 Chinese studies, 9.68% datapoints were removed as outliers in the heterogeneity analysis. This review revealed that the abundance of MPs was highly heterogeneous. In addition, microplastic (MP) distribution maps based on China demonstrated that the highest abundance of MPs tended to occur near large rivers and central land affected by the intersection of two monsoons. The model-fitting and previous studies showed that MP abundance in China was correlated with longitude, agricultural mulching film usage per capita, temperature, and precipitation. However, due to the heterogeneity of MPs and the low matching degree between the current environmental data and the sampling points, this pattern was not as evident as reported in any single study. Factors affecting the distribution of MPs can not be captured by linear relationships alone, and systematic selection of suitable environmental factors and further model optimization are needed to explore the cause of MP pollution in soil. Overall, this review revealed an uneven distribution of MPs and serves as a reference for model prediction to assess and control plastic pollution in natural soil environments.     

Using design effects from previous cluster surveys to guide sample size calculation in emergency settings

A good estimate of the design effect is critical for calculating the most efficient sample size for cluster surveys. We reviewed the design effects for seven nutrition and health outcomes from nine population-based cluster surveys conducted in emergency settings. Most of the design effects for outcomes in children, and one-half of the design effects for crude mortality, were below two. A reassessment of mortality data from Kosovo and Badghis, Afghanistan revealed that, given the same number of clusters, changing sample size had a relatively small impact on the precision of the estimate of mortality. We concluded that, in most surveys, assuming a design effect of 1.5 for acute malnutrition in children and two or less for crude mortality would produce a more efficient sample size. In addition, enhancing the sample size in cluster surveys without increasing the number of clusters may not result in substantial improvements in precision.     

长江经济带生态系统服务权衡与协同及其驱动因素

生态系统服务及其变化是多种因素驱动的复杂过程,了解生态系统服务之间的权衡与协同作用及其驱动因素,对于实现生态系统服务有效管理和人类福祉至关重要.以长江经济带为研究区域,分析了2000~2020年产水、土壤保持、碳固定和粮食供给这4项生态系统服务的时空变化特征,运用相关性分析和地理加权回归识别和量化了生态系统服务间的权衡与协同关系,在此基础上应用偏最小二乘结构方程模型探究自然与人类活动对生态系统服务的影响,再通过地理探测器分析生态系统服务关系变化的驱动机制.结果表明:①近20年来,碳固定服务年均值由946.14 t·km^-2增至1 202.73 t·km^-2,粮食供给均值则由32.73万元·km^-2增至127.22万元·km^-2;产水和土壤保持服务增加幅度较小.②整体上,碳固定与土壤保持、粮食供给与产水为协同关系,其他生态系统服务之间为权衡关系;生态系统服务间的关系在不同地区存在一定的差异.③地形和气候是生态系统服务及多对生态系统服务权衡与协同关系的重要驱动因素,其中结构方程模型结果表明,气候对产水为正向影响（S = 0.73）,地形对粮食供给为负向影响（S = -0.57）;地理探测器结果揭示,影响碳固定与产水在空间上关系的主要驱动因子为海拔（q = 0.38）和降水（q = 0.19）.研究结果可为长江经济带生态系统服务可持续管理和实现该区域生态环境保护与社会经济的协同发展提供科学参考.     

Comparing geographic boundaries in songbird demography data with vegetation boundaries: a new approach to evaluating habitat quality

To plan for the habitat needs of forest songbirds of conservation concern, managers need to understand how spatial heterogeneity in forest conditions influences habitat quality. I used difference boundary detection (wombling) and spatially constrained clustering to delineate boundaries in various combinations of four forest vegetation variables (understory height, understory density, percent deciduous vs. conifer understory, and percent canopy closure) in two Michigan northern hardwood forests. My goal was to identify vegetation boundaries that corresponded with boundaries in an understory-dependent songbird’s distribution, and with boundaries in demographic measures for this songbird that indicate habitat quality (e.g., occupancy by older vs. yearling males, reproductive success). Both forests were actively-managed, mature stands: The first site (78 ha) was heavily deer-browsed (HB), with many browse-resistant conifers in the understory, and the second (62 ha) was less-browsed (LB), with deciduous-dominated understory. I compared the vegetation difference and cluster boundaries to difference boundaries based on 6 years of distribution and demographic data for black-throated blue warblers (Dendroica caerulescens). At the HB site, warbler boundaries overlapped strongly with vegetation boundaries that included all four variables, and clustering effectively divided the habitat into areas with different warbler occupancy and demographic characteristics. At the LB site, warbler distribution showed high overlap with difference and cluster boundaries based on just the height and density of understory vegetation, and cluster boundaries again effectively partitioned the study area into sites that varied in habitat quality. Thus, geographic boundary analysis is likely to be a useful tool for identifying key vegetation variables for management, and for delineating clusters (habitat patches) within sites that capture differences in habitat quality.

突发水灾害事件应急管理合作中的演化博弈分析

为了探讨突发水灾害应急管理中的合作问题,构建突发水灾害应急管理的异质主体网络体系,分析各异质主体间的博弈关系。在此基础上,考察异质应急主体行为选择——合作与不合作行为对应急合作达成的演化影响,将演化博弈理论应用到水灾害应急管理中,建立相应的演化博弈模型,进行稳定性分析,并对主体博弈形成的动力系统进行系统仿真。最后,根据演化博弈结果得出,中央政府加强监督管理和对不合作主体从重处罚将有利于良好合作秩序的达成。