Durable goods and long-run electricity demand: Evidence from air conditioner purchase behavior

I estimate a dynamic structural model of demand for air conditioners, the most energy-intensive home appliance in the US. The model explores the links between demand for durable goods and expected changes in key attributes: energy efficiency and price. I incorporate expectations explicitly as a feature of the choice setting, and use parameter estimates from the model to calculate durable good demand elasticities with respect to energy efficiency, electricity price, and price of the durable itself. These estimates fill a large gap in the literature, and also shed light on consumer behavior in this setting. Results indicate that consumers are forward-looking and value the stream of future savings derived from energy efficiency.     

The socially optimal recycling rate: Evidence from Japan

This paper estimates the average social cost of municipal waste management as a function of the recycling rate. Social costs include all municipal costs and revenues, costs to recycling households to prepare materials estimated with an original method, external disposal costs, and external recycling benefits. Results suggest average social costs are minimized with recycling rates well below observed and mandated levels in Japan. Cost-minimizing municipalities are estimated to recycle less than the optimal rate. These results are robust to changes in the components of social costs, indicating that Japan and perhaps other developed countries may be setting inefficiently high recycling goals.     

事故致因模型体系及建模一般方法与发展趋势

为完善事故致因建模的基础理论体系,从微观、中观与宏观3个层面归纳国内外现有的50余种事故致因模型,并以“点-线-面-体”为主线论述事故致因模型的立体网状结构体系。基于此,从方法学的视角论述事故致因建模的理论基础,并提炼相似比较法、概率统计法等5种一般建模方法。最后分析新形势下事故致因模型及其建模方法的发展趋势。研究结果系统的梳理与归纳了现有事故致因模型及其结构体系,完善了事故致因建模的方法论,可为事故致因建模的研究与实践提供基础理论指导。     

安全信息学的方法论研究

为了从信息发展和安全科学发展的角度分析安全信息学研究的重要性和必要性,首先对安全信息学的定义、安全信息学与安全信息方法论之间的5条主要联系进行阐述,提出了安全信息学的研究对象及其23个主要分支学科。其次,基于信息学方法论原则和安全科学的方法论原则,探讨出安全信息学的5条方法论原则。此外,从信息学、认知心理学的研究资料分析过程提出安全信息学具体方法,分析安全信息学研究的一般方法即搜集法、概括法、统计法9种基本方法。最后,建立了安全信息学的一般程序,包括5个主要步骤,为安全信息学的构建提供方法论支持。研究表明:安全信息学有其独特的方法论,其方法论的研究能为安全信息学建立及开展提供方法上的理论指导。     

辛基酚聚氧乙烯醚混合菌的构建及响应面优化

为提高辛基酚聚氧乙烯醚（OPnEO）的生物降解效果,在本实验室已筛选出的H1、TXBc10、OPQb11、TXBa23四株OPnEO高效降解菌的基础上,首次从构建OPnEO混合菌的角度,着重探究了四菌株等比例不同组合降解OPnEO的效果.结果表明,混合菌L9（H1：TXBc10：TXBa23为1：1：1）培养7d后对初始浓度500mg/LOPnEO的降解率最高,达到56.44%,比各单一菌株降解效果有较明显提高.运用单因素试验考察了影响L9的相关因素,初步确定L9降解OPnEO的最适外加碳源和氮源分别为葡萄糖和胰蛋白胨,最适初始pH值为7.0,最适温度为28℃,最适接种量为4%.Plackett-Burman试验筛选获得影响OPnEO降解率的3个显著因子为L9接种量、温度及初始pH值.最陡爬坡试验逼近3个显著因子的最大响应区域,采用Box-Behnken试验设计及响应面法分析,确定L9的最优降解条件为50mL反应体系中接种量4.16%、温度28.20℃、初始pH值7.13、葡萄糖与胰蛋白胨浓度均为2%、OPnEO初始浓度500mg/L、180r/min培养7d,该条件下混合菌L9对OPnEO降解率达62.15%,比未优化条件提高了5%左右.     

Leaching toxicity characteristics of municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash

The continuously increasing production of municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash (MSWIBA) has promoted its utilization as construction material and raised environmental concern. The physico-chemical properties and leaching behavior of MSWIBA were studied, and ecotoxicological testing using a luminescent bacterium bioassay was performed to assess the ecological pollution risks associated with its leached constituents. The MSWIBA was leached by two types of leachants, H₂SO₄/HNO₃ and HAc solution, at different liquid to solid ratios and contact times. The concentrations of heavy metals and anions in the leachates were analyzed. Multivariate statistical analyses, including principle component analysis, Pearson's correlation analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis, were used to evaluate the contributions of the constituents to the toxicity (EC₅₀) of the MSWIBA leachate. The statistical analyses of the ecotoxicological results showed that the Ba, Cr, Cu, Pb, F⁻ and total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations were closely correlated with the EC₅₀ value, and these substances were the main contributors to the ecotoxicity of the MSWIBA leachate. In addition, the cluster of these variables indicated similar leaching behaviors. Overall, the research demonstrated that the ecotoxicological risks resulting from MSWIBA leaching could be assessed before its utilization, which provides crucial information for the adaptation of MSWIBA as alternative materials.     

Rethinking the study of human–wildlife coexistence

Although coexistence with wildlife is a key goal of conservation, little is known about it or how to study it. By coexistence we mean a sustainable though dynamic state in which humans and wildlife coadapt to sharing landscapes, where human interactions with wildlife are effectively governed to ensure wildlife populations persist in socially legitimate ways that ensure tolerable risk levels. Problems that arise from current conflict-oriented framing of human–wildlife interactions include reinforcing a human–nature dichotomy as fundamentally oppositional, suggesting coexistence requires the absence of conflict, and skewing research and management toward direct negative impacts over indirect impacts and positive aspects of living with wildlife. Human behavior toward wildlife is framed as rational calculus of costs and benefits, sidelining emotional and cultural dimensions of these interactions. Coexistence is less studied due to unfamiliarity with relevant methodologies, including qualitative methods, self-reflexivity and ethical rigor, and constraints on funding and time. These challenges are illustrated with examples from fieldwork in India and Africa. We recommend a basic approach to case studies aimed at expanding the scope of inquiries into human–wildlife relations beyond studies of rational behavior and quantification of costs and benefits of wildlife to humans.     

西攀高速公路泥石流防治与对策

在野外调查与资料分析的基础上,总结了西攀高速公路沿线泥石流的分布特征,并通过分析典型泥石流防治工程的缺陷,提出在当前山区高速公路泥石流防治工程中,西攀高速公路泥石流防治中所暴露的问题具有代表性。针对高速公路与成昆铁路的空间位置关系,在成昆铁路沿安宁河已占有较好线位的条件下,根据成昆铁路防治泥石流的成功经验,提出了西攀高速公路泥石流防治工程的主要策略。     

Modeling and optimization of Nile blue sulfate mineralization by heterogeneous fenton oxidation

Artificial neural network and response surface methodology have been used to develop a model for simulation and optimization of the removal of Nile blue sulfate by heterogeneous Fenton oxidation. Experimental data were used to train an artificial neural network model with linear transfer function at the output layer and a tangent sigmoid transfer function at the hidden layer. A Box–Behnken design was employed to assess the effects of input process parameters on the total organic carbon removal. First order kinetics and lumped kinetics models were used to describe the reaction; a high regression coefficient indicated that the latter fitted best. The formation of non-oxidizable compounds was shown by liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry.     

温带湖泊周边湿地原生草地与人工林土壤碳释放差异性分析

采用红外气体分析法对东平湖湿地人工杨树林和自然草地土壤碳通量进行测定,分析了6:00到18:00两种生境下群落土壤碳通量日变化规律,及其对温度、水分等环境因子的响应。结果表明:(1)两种生境群落的土壤碳通量日动态都呈单峰曲线,但人为耕作过的土壤碳通量明显高于原生草地,土壤碳通量均在6:00达到最小值,杨树林土壤碳通量的最大值出现在12:00,而草地群落土壤碳通量最大值在14:00左右;(2)人工林土壤碳通量与近地面大气温度、土壤温度的相关性均低于草地,且两种生境群落土壤呼吸与近地面大气温度的相关性(P<0.01)均好于与土壤温度的相关性(P<0.05)。土壤碳通量对近地面大气温度的敏感性Q10值大于土壤温度的敏感性,人工林土壤呼吸温度敏感性Q10值小于草地。土壤碳通量与近地面大气相对湿度之间具有显著线性方程关系(P<0.01),人工杨树林和草地的相关系数分别为:0.399、0.29。杨树林土壤碳通量与土壤体积含水量相关性差(P<0.05),湿地草地土壤CO2释放量与土壤体积含水量的相关性不显著(P>0.05),这可能由于土壤体积含水量日变化较小,而不能很好的解释日变化尺度上的土壤呼吸变化;(3)对湿地地土壤碳通量的日变化与土壤养分和盐分相关分析得出,人工林土壤中的有机质和全盐与土壤碳通量具有显著关系(P<0.05),而草地土壤碳通量与土壤养分和盐分相关性均非常差,说明人工林生境土壤有机质和全盐是影响土壤碳通量的一个重要因素,而对草地的影响较小。该结果可以为华北平原东部地区以及温带湖泊湿地的土壤碳通量研究提供参考。