LPG leakage and explosion accident analysis based on a new SAA method

The petrochemical industry has inherently high safety risks. On 5^th June 2017, a liquefied petroleum gas tanker in the storage and transportation department of Linyi Jinyu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. leaked during unloading, causing a major explosion and fire. Ten people were killed and nine were injured. To prevent the recurrence of similar accidents, a retrospective accident analysis was conducted using the system accident analysis method known as ‘24Model’. This analysis proved the coupling relationship between accident causes involving multiple organisations and multiple factors. The analysis results show that the five modules of maintenance and design, that is, loading and unloading valves, emergency training, management of subsidiaries and contractors, multi-level supervision, and task arrangement need to be checked from top to bottom by relevant organisations.In order to verify the reliability of 24Model analysis results, three SAA methods, namely STAMP, FRAM, AcciMap, were used to analyse the accident, and results obtained by the four methods were evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively. The results show that the output of 24Model is reliable and has a more understandable framework, which can be used as reference for the development of other linear accident cause models and application of system accident analysis methods to real applications.     

Social determinants of soil and water conservation in rural Kenya

Soil erosion is a major environmental problem and threat to rural development in Kenya. Numerous attempts to address the problem have apparently had little success. There are however some districts that have been very successful, notably Machakos. In this study we search for the factors that determine successful development in soil conservation such as social capital, human capital and market integration. One of our main results is that social capital measures are significant determinants of investment in soil conservation. A better understanding of the relevant mechanisms is essential for developing policies targeting improvement in natural resource management.

3-甲基喹啉的微生物降解

从处理油制气废水的活性污泥中分离得到一株菌种Q10，经16SrDNA序列分析鉴定为睾丸酮丛毛单胞菌，该菌可以利用3-甲基喹啉作为唯一碳源和能源生长。着重研究了该菌在好氧条件下利用3-甲基喹啉作为唯一碳源和能源的降解特性．并初步分析了3-甲基喹啉的降解中间产物。实验结果表明：菌种Q10对3-甲基喹啉具有较高的降解性能．3-甲基喹啉降解的主要途径是首先生成单羟基化合物、多羟基化合物，然后主要在苯环上发生开环反应进一步降解。     

新毒性试验生物萼花臂尾轮虫的特性试验

研究了萼花臂尾轮虫Ｂｒａｃｈｉｏｎｕｓ ｃａｌｙｃｉｆｌｏｒｕｓ ２４ｈ标准化急性毒性试验的可行性和优越性。应用轮虫休眠卵，在２５℃、３０００ｌｘ的强光照下进行孵化，吸取孵化后３ｈ内的幼体，进行２４ｈ（暗相）急性毒性试验。研究表明，Ｃｕ、Ｈｇ、ＮａＰＣＰ、ＳＤＳ、Ｃｄ、Ｚｎ、Ｎｉ、ＮＨ３对Ｂ．ｃａｌｙｃｉｆｌｏｒｕｓ的２４ｈ ＬＣ５０值分别为０．０２２、０．０４３、１．３０、１．４７、１．７７、１     

公路工程施工安全事故致因模型构建

为了探究公路施工安全事故诱因及其影响关系,基于"4M"理论和事故致因"2-4"模型,识别公路工程施工安全事故致因因素并确定模型框架,运用SPSS Modeler软件对2007~2017年426起事故进行关联规则挖掘,采取路径分析与重要度分析,构建出公路工程施工安全事故致因模型。结果表明:施工单位内外部原因共同引发公路工程施工安全事故,外部原因来源于建设单位、监理单位和勘察设计单位的安全管理缺失,而施工单位内部影响因素中,人的不安全动作、物的不安全因素、不良的生产环境和自然环境是事故发生的直接原因,无效的安全监管和作业层安全素质及能力不强是间接原因,根本原因是施工程序和技术方案存在缺陷,根源原因是决策层和管理层的安全素质及能力有待提高。该模型系统展现了工程施工项目安全事故致因因素的影响关系和重要程度,为公路工程施工安全事故预防提供指导。     

Valuation of human health: An integrated model of willingness to pay for mortality and morbidity risk reductions

This paper develops and applies an integrated model of mortality and morbidity valuation that is consistent with the principles of welfare economics. To obtain the integrated model, the standard one-period expected utility model of one person facing the prospect of either being alive or dead is extended to incorporate (1) a third health state (sick) with a utility level that is intermediate to utility if healthy and utility if dead, (2) a family perspective in which a parent makes choices about risk exposure both for herself and for a child, and (3) a multi-period framework that allows for possible parent/child differences in illness latency. Monetary benefits of health risk reduction obtained from the integrated model are compared with those that would be computed using the standard model. The integrated model then is applied using data obtained from two field studies of skin cancer and leukemia to demonstrate how it can be used to estimate health benefits of reduced illness and death risks.     

Reforming small-scale mining in sub-Saharan Africa: Political and ideological challenges to a Fair Trade gold initiative

In sub-Saharan Africa, artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) has caused a range of environmental, social and economic problems. Most of the donor support pledged to improve conditions in the sector to date, however, has failed to facilitate marked improvements, in large part because emphasis has been placed on technical interventions; at the same time, impoverished miners’ needs and concerns have been seriously overlooked. It is against this background that this paper critically examines the underpinnings and potential of “Fair Trade gold” as a solution to many of the problems plaguing the ASM sector and a mechanism for alleviating the hardships of its operators. Unlike the majority of ASM-support support measures implemented in the past, “Fair Trade gold” is entrenched in the discourse of “partnership” and “participation”. To ensure its effectiveness initiatives must be adapted according to the specificities of ASM.     

An uncertainty based multi-criteria ranking system for open pit mining cut-off grade strategy selection

Cut-off grade strategy (COGS) is a concept that directly influences the financial, technical, economical, and environmental issues in relation to the exploitation of a mineral resource. Despite the simple definition of cut-off grade, the COGS problem is one of the complex and complicated problems in the mine planning process. From the optimization point of view, the COGS with an objective of maximizing the present value of future cash flows is a non-linear and a non-convex problem that even in its deterministic form can be solved using approximate optimization methods. This optimization problem will also be more complex and complicated under uncertainty conditions. This paper proposes an uncertainty based multi-criteria ranking system to investigate the problem of COGS selection considering metal price and geological uncertainties. The proposed system aims at selection of the best COGS among technically feasible alternative COGSs under uncertainty circumstances. Our developed system is based on integrating metal price and geological uncertainties as well as operating flexibility to close the mine early. We incorporate this operating flexibility into the proposed system using a Monte Carlo based real options (RO) valuation model. For this purpose, in addition to the expected value, other risk criteria are considered to rank the alternatives. These risk criteria include abilities of strategies in producing extra profits, minimizing losses, and achieving the predefined goals of the production. In this study, the technically possible COGSs are generated using the Lane comprehensive algorithm. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed system, we utilize data of an Iranian gold mine. Results show that the proposed system outperforms conventional methods in the sense that it shows significantly lower average mis-ranking than the other methods and also selects a strategy with a higher value. The sensitivity analysis of the proposed system relative to the gold price shows that the system is highly dependent on the parameters of the stochastic process used to model the evolution of the metal price. Therefore, special consideration should be given in estimating stochastic process parameters.     

A sceptical vision of the environmental Kuznets curve: The case of sulfur dioxide

The aim of this paper is to check the hypothesis for the environmental Kuznets curve for sulfur dioxide. This involved analysis of: 1. the theoretical basis of the model; 2. the technical problem of SO2 generation; 3 the kind of information used in the estimations; 4. changes in the structure of electric energy production; 5. improvements in energy efficiency; and 6. the recent introduction of cleaning mechanisms in a favourable political context. The conclusion is that, if it is possible to prove the existence of environmental Kuznets curve models, their utility as instruments of economic policy is debatable.     

氯代苯类化合物对江水细菌的毒性及QSAR研究

采用细菌生长抑制实验,测定了18种氯苯类化合物对长江水中混合细菌的毒性,得到24 hIC₅₀值,-1gIC₅₀为3.65～4.32,其中,毒性最弱的是氯苯,毒性最强的是1,2,4-三氯苯.选用分子连接性指数法对毒性数据进行定量结构活性关系(QSAR)研究.结果表明,氯苯类化合物对江水细菌的毒性与苯环上取代基的种类、数目和位置有关,价分子连接性指数0XV和7X_CHV能够很好地描述氯苯类化合物对江水细菌的毒性.方程-1gIC₅₀=0.8390XV-25.3727X_CHV+0.802的稳健性很好,该模型的预测值与毒性实测值之间的相关系数达0.948.