Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis

Following the Boskin et al., (1996) report, it became widely recognized that price indexes in the U.S. and elsewhere overstate inflation. Svedberg and Tilton (2006) highlighted that this inflation bias may have important implications for estimated long-term trends in nonrenewable resource prices. ST construct an inflation-bias corrected CPI (and PPI) for the U.S. and use their corrected deflator(s) to define a so-called ‘real real’ price of copper. Their ‘real real’ price of copper is then used to re-estimate long-term trends in real copper prices. This paper proposes a quick method for obtaining inflation-bias-corrected estimates of long-run trends in real primary commodity prices directly from estimates in the published literature. Our approach obviates the need re-do existing empirical studies using a corrected or ‘real real’ price of nonrenewable resources. The two approaches are mathematically equivalent.     

Permitting a new mine: Insights from the community debate

When a mining company selects a site for development, the company begins a dialogue with the local community about receiving the necessary approvals for the mining permits. The dialogue focuses on how well the company can use science and technology to manage risk to the local environment, and on how much economic benefit will be gained by the local community for accepting the risk. A useful approach to better understand how the debate affects the outcome of the permitting effort is to use the method of “discourse communities and analysis”. This paper analyzes two efforts by Kennecott (Rio Tinto) and one by Exxon to develop base metal mine sites in the Upper Midwest of the USA. As the three case studies show, the local pro- and anti-mining discourse community members will not be changing their basic positions as the permitting of a new mine is debated. Accordingly, both communities are trying to convince undecided stakeholders rather than talking to each other. Both sides are using ever more sophisticated media methods to communicate their message to the undecided residents of the community. By winning the support of the majority of the undecided residents, political pressure can be used to sway the decision.     

A review of the PGM industry,deposit models and exploration practices: Implications for Australia's PGM potential

Australia is prospective for platinum group metal (PGM) mineralisation (in particular primary magmatic reef, primary magmatic by-product, late magmatic and hydrothermal, and alluvial placer type) but its known PGM endowment is negligible compared to that of South Africa, Russia, the USA and Canada. Most Australian PGM projects are operated by mid-cap or junior companies and form part of larger, more diverse project portfolios held by these explorers. Most projects were ‘hot’ while market conditions were favourable. However, as other metals became ‘fashionable’ and market conditions for PGM changed, so did the focus of these companies. Pure PGM companies are rare in Australia. The search for and development of PGM-only deposits in Australia are high risk business activities. No new primary PGM deposits have been discovered since the mid to late 1980s and none of the significant deposits that were discovered or evaluated in the 1980s have been mined. This review suggests that at least several A$10 million but more likely several A$100 million were sunk into PGM exploration and development projects but none advanced to the mining stage. The viability of Australian PGM projects is very sensitive to (1) metal prices, (2) the US$/A$ exchange rate, and (3) large capital expenditure requirements relative to the small size of Australian PGM-only deposits. Most PGM-only projects were initiated at times of high PGM prices. However, advanced exploration, feasibility studies and project development always lagged behind the price booms. South Africa, Russia and Canada contain approximately 98% of the known global PGM reserves. This situation has a very negative effect on the Australian PGM industry as the well-endowed nations continue to receive the lion's share of exploration spend and new projects.     

Private capital: What impedes its entry into China's minerals industry

The paper commences with an analysis of the nature and status of private capital investment in the minerals industry in China. Based on the analysis, the authors examine the main barriers in terms of the mineral rights market, industry access and investment security that impede the participation of private capital into exploration and development of China's mineral resources. The discussion addresses how to encourage the participation of private capital into mining investment and it concludes that it is of significant importance to ensure the soundness of mineral rights market, impartiality of industry access, and security of mineral rights.     

Statistical considerations of progressive value and risk in mineral exploration

Financial markets recognise maximisation of expected value (E), in an essentially risk-neutral context, as the main corporate financial objective of private enterprise. This may be valid for large, integrated mining companies. Yet, most junior and middle-size exploration companies behave in a risk-averse fashion when making decisions about progressively more expensive exploration programs. From their perspective, a potential increase in expected value from either an increase in target value or related probability of discovery, or both, may not be a sufficient incentive to embark in an exploration programme if the resultant increase in expected value is accompanied by a significant increase in possible maximum loss. Risk-averse explorers may be unwilling to bear larger, albeit less probable losses, when the cost of successive exploration programmes is taken into account. The paper provides a practical methodology for such explorers to optimise the decision whether to progress to the next stage of exploration or to farm out a risky project. It uses a decision-tree model incorporating the effectiveness of the proposed exploration programme, the explorer's risk tolerance and related utility values and the probability distribution of the possible value of the exploration target.     

Using exploration expenditures to assess the climate for mineral investment

Countries that rely on private investors to find and exploit their mineral resources need reliable indicators of their investment attractiveness. This study explores the use of exploration expenditures for this purpose, focusing primarily on Chile.     

微生物膜下Q235钢腐蚀行为的表面分析

应用现代表面分析技术研究了Q235钢在硫酸盐还原菌(SRB)环境中的腐蚀行为.包括应用原子力显微镜(AFM)和扫描电子显微镜(SEM)观察Q235钢表面的微生物膜形貌和腐蚀形貌,应用X射线衍射仪(XRD)和X光电子扫描仪(XPS)对Q235钢表面进行成分分析.结果表明微生物膜和硫化物膜在金属表面分布不均匀,进而形成浓差电池引起腐蚀,Q235钢的微生物腐蚀主要以点蚀形式发生.     

4-甲基喹啉的微生物降解研究

从处理油制气废水的活性污泥中分离得到一株可降解喹啉的菌Q10，经鉴定为睾丸酮丛毛单胞菌(Comamonas testosteroni)。该菌还可以降解4——甲基喹啉，本文着重研究了该菌在好氧条件下对4——甲基喹啉降解特性。实验结果表明，该菌在碱性条件下比在酸性条件下更有利于4——甲基喹啉的降解；温度为30℃时降解较快；振荡速度对降解没有明显影响；在适当的细菌浓度和底物浓度水平上，4——甲基喹啉具有较高的降解效率。实验也表明，菌Q10是一株喹啉衍生物广谱降解菌，具有重要的实用价值。     

The Kyoto protocol: Empirical evidence of a hidden success

How effective was the Kyoto protocol? International Environmental Agreements (IEA) have been on the rise over the past four decades; however, thus far their effectiveness is controversial. In view of the conflicting results found in the related literature, this paper addresses its effectiveness by utilizing for the first time the generalized synthetic control method (GSCM) to compare the emissions of the industrialized countries with a “No- Kyoto” counterfactual scenario that represents the expected emissions in the absence of the protocol. This method facilitates a robust comparison between treated and control countries as done by Almer and Winkler (2017) and account for the multiple treated units as done by Grunewald and Martinez-Zarzoso (2016), so as to capture the collective nature of the protocol. Results show that the protocol was successful in reducing the emissions of the ratifying countries approximately by 7% below the emissions expected under a “No-Kyoto” scenario, confirming the importance of accounting for the collective nature of the agreement.     

建筑施工起重机械事故一线作业人员不安全动作规律研究

为有效预防建筑施工起重机械事故,笔者将建筑起重机械一线作业人员按工种分为设备驾驶员、现场施工人员、安拆维修工和信号司索工4种。以行为安全“2-4”模型作为分析工具,对70起建筑施工起重机械事故样本中各类人员不安全动作进行分析。结果表明:建筑施工起重机械事故一线作业人员发出不安全动作196次,其中设备驾驶员发出不安全动作29次,占比41.43%,安拆维修工、信号司索工、现场施工人员分别发出不安全动作18、14和9次,占比分别为25.71%、20%和12.86%。一线作业人员常见的不安全动作是擅自拆除或起吊、未佩戴劳动防护用品、作业现场环境误判断、违反安全操作规程、资质不足作业,其中资质不足作业、违反安全操作规程和作业现场环境误判断发生频次最高。