1998年临猗5.0级地震前Q值的前兆异常

利用西安数字地震遥测台网记录的数字地震资料,采用P波初动半周期残差法求得了1998年7月临猗5.0级地震前后不同路径的Q值变化.发现在地震发生前Q在87(203之间,震后Q在67～164之间,震前震中区附近出现了明显的高Q值异常,表明地震前的高Q值异常可以作为地震预测的一种手段.     

The “second dividend” and the demographic structure

The demographic structure of a country influences economic activity. The “second dividend” modifies growth. Accordingly, in general equilibrium, the second dividend and the demographic structure are interrelated. This paper aims at assessing empirically the “second dividend” in a dynamic, empirical and intertemporal setting that allows for measuring its impact on growth, its intergenerational redistributive effects, and its interaction with the demographic structure. The paper uses a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations, an energy module and a public finance module that distinguishes between non-ageing-related public spending and a pension regime. Policy scenarios compare the consequences of different scenarios of recycling a carbon tax through lower proportional income taxes rather than higher public lump-sum expenditures. They are computed for two countries with different demographics (France and Germany). Results suggest that the magnitude of the “second dividend” is significantly related with the demographic structure. The more concentrated the demographic structure on cohorts with higher income and saving rate, the stronger the effect on capital supply of the second dividend. The second dividend weighs on the welfare of relatively aged working cohorts. It fosters the wellbeing of young working cohorts and of future generations. The more concentrated the demographic structure on aged working cohorts, the higher the intergenerational redistributive effects of the second dividend.     

Coltan from Central Africa,international trade and implications for any certification

The exploitation of coltan in Central Africa can be considered a case of conflict minerals due to its nature. Many international organizations and bodies, national governments and private sector organizations seek to address this conflict, in particular via transparency, certification and accountability along the material supply chain. This paper analyses the international trade dimension of coltan and gives evidence on the dimension of illicit trade of coltan. The authors start from the hypothesis that illicit trade of coltan sooner or later will enter the market and will be reflected in the statistics. The paper is structured in the following manner: first, a short section gives a profile of coltan production and markets; second, an overview of the mining situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and related actors. The third section addresses mechanisms, actors and measurement issues involved in the international trade of coltan. The final part draws lessons for certification and conflict analysis and offers some guidance for future research.     

An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting

The global gold market has recently attracted a lot of attention and the price of gold is relatively higher than its historical trend. For mining companies to mitigate risk and uncertainty in gold price fluctuations, make hedging, future investment and evaluation decisions, depend on forecasting future price trends. The first section of this paper reviews the world gold market and the historical trend of gold prices from January 1968 to December 2008. This is followed by an investigation into the relationship between gold price and other key influencing variables, such as oil price and global inflation over the last 40 years. The second section applies a modified econometric version of the long-term trend reverting jump and dip diffusion model for forecasting natural-resource commodity prices. This method addresses the deficiencies of previous models, such as jumps and dips as parameters and unit root test for long-term trends. The model proposes that historical data of mineral commodities have three terms to demonstrate fluctuation of prices: a long-term trend reversion component, a diffusion component and a jump or dip component. The model calculates each term individually to estimate future prices of mineral commodities. The study validates the model and estimates the gold price for the next 10 years, based on monthly historical data of nominal gold price.     

Minerals policy in Europe: Some recent developments

The importance of a secured supply of raw materials for the European economy is evident. However, securing the supply of raw materials based on an appropriate EU minerals policy has been scarcely treated by the decision-makers in the last decades. Solely the impact of price development of international commodity markets in the last years induces a re-thinking of this field. The EU Raw Materials Initiative, which was published by the European Commission in November 2008, establishes an EU raw materials strategy including a list of actions.     

The great metals boom: A retrospective

The metals boom that ran from 2003 to 2008 represented the most powerful and sustained such boom since the Second World War. As the boom gathered momentum, the notion began to emerge that commodities were at the beginning of a multi-year ‘super cycle’ driven by demand growth in the emerging economies and, in particular, China. The persistence of the boom helped sustain this belief right up to the point when metal prices collapsed in the second half of 2008. Looking back over the period, much of what occurred can be readily explained by the unusual strength of the demand shock and the lagged response of the supplying industry, with prices receiving an additional boost from the activities of commodity investors. There is, however, some evidence to suggest that the combination of downward pressure on the costs of manufactured goods and upward pressure on the costs of mineral commodities which accompanied the boom marked a shift in the terms of trade between these two product groups. This in turn seems to have brought to an end the sustained decline in real terms metal prices that occurred in the years following the boom of the 1970s. In sum, the key structural change taking place may not have been on the demand side of the industry as the super cyclists maintained, but on the supply side.     

Allocation and banking in Korean permits trading

This paper investigates how Korean industry would respond to four different allocation and banking options in CO₂ permit trading within a fully dynamic computational general equilibrium framework. Four different allocations are categorized—a uniform allocation and three performance-based allocations. We explore that performance-based allocation and banking lower losses in Korean potential GDP, allowing energy-intensive industry more flexibility in inter-temporal decision making on purchasing and selling permits. The steel industry can derive a particular advantage from a performance-based allocation with respect to energy use, while the semiconductor industry would prefer a performance-based allocation with respect to value-added. The two key conclusions are (i) the Korean economy should replace an absolute allocation with a performance-based allocation, and (ii) the banking of permits enables market players to reallocate allowances more efficiently in a long-term commitment period. These results support the findings of the key study by Kling and Rubin (1997).     

Drainage and utilization of Chinese coal mine methane with a coal–methane co-exploitation model: Analysis and projections

Coal mine methane (CMM) released during coal mining attributes to unsafe working conditions and environmental impact. China, the largest coal producer in the world, is facing problems associated with CMM such as fatal gas accidents and intense greenhouse gas emission along the path to deep mining. Complicated geological conditions featured with low permeability, high gas pressure and gas content of Chinese coal seams have been hindering the coal extraction. To solve these problems, a model of coal–methane co-exploitation is proposed. This model realizes the extraction of two resources with safety ensured and has been successfully applied in Huainan coalfield, China. The current situation of drainage and utilization of CMM in China are diagnosed. Connections between the coal production, methane emissions, drainage and utilization are analyzed. Estimations of future coal production, methane emissions, drainage and utilization are made in a co-exploitation based scenario. The emitted, drained and utilized CMM are projected to reach 26.6, 13.3 and 9.3 billion m³, respectively by adapting the assumption of 3800 million metric tons of coal production by 2020.     

Development on whose terms?: CSR discourse and social realities in Papua New Guinea's extractive industries sector

The emergence of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in the extractive industries represents a bid to legitimize the sector after decades of environmental disasters and the trampling of indigenous rights. But whilst the rise in CSR has meant safer technologies and better stakeholder engagement, there is little evidence of any real socio-economic development at the grassroots. This paper examines the uneasy relationship existing between the strategic ‘business model’ of CSR and the brand of development it delivers. Using evidence from two multinational extractive industries in Papua New Guinea, we show how weaknesses in CSR practice come from greater emphasis on meeting global ‘performance standards’ than on the specificities of the social contexts in which strategies are implemented. These weaknesses, we argue, lead to ill-conceived and inappropriate development programmes that generate inequality, fragmentation, and social and economic insecurity. We conclude that greater engagement with affected communities will facilitate the development of more mutually beneficial and appropriate CSR strategies.     

Multiproduct mine output and the case of mining waste utilization

This article addresses the concepts of economies of scope and multiproduct production, subadditivity and transray convexity as it applies to the mining industry. The article goes on to expand these concepts to include the case of mining waste utilization. It discusses how the modification of mining wastes into a marketable product can develop a relationship across the cost functions of the modified mining waste and ore production and how this interrelationship affects the profit maximizing condition. It discusses four possible outcomes from mining waste modification and its development into marketable products on the profitability and production of ore by the firm. Finally, it discusses mining waste utilization effects on rehabilitation costs and the potential for a decrease in the adverse community effects due to mine closure.