A new baseline model for estimating willingness to pay from discrete choice models

We show a substantive problem exists with the widely-used ratio of coefficients approach to calculating willingness to pay (WTP) from discrete choice models. The correctly calculated standard error for WTP using this approach is shown to be undefined. This occurs because the cost parameter's standard error implies some possibility the true parameter value is arbitrarily close to zero. We propose a simple yet elegant way to overcome this problem by reparameterizing the (negative) cost variable's coefficient using an exponential transformation to enforce the theoretically correct positive coefficient. With it the confidence interval for WTP is now finite and well behaved.     

Environmental occurrence of Q1, a C9H3C17N2 compound,that has been identified as a natural bioaccumulative organochlorine

Environmental appearance of Q1, a natural heptachloro compound with the molecular formula C₉H₃Cl₇N₂, was studied in samples from different sites all over the world. Q1 was expected to have a bipyrrole backbone, similar to other compounds ascribed to natural sources. A method for isolation of Q1 was developed by combination of adsorption chromatography on silica and normal phase HPLC with an amino phase. UV-detection of Q1 supports the aromatic character of the compound.

The high levels detected in samples of marine mammals and birds suggested that Q1 is both a persistent and a bioaccumulative contaminant. This was underscored by calculated log K_OW in the range of other lipophilic organohalogens. In accordance with earlier studies, highest Q1 concentrations were found in the Southern Hemisphere, but with a highly selective GC/ECNI-MS-SIM method, detection of Q1 was also achieved in many samples from the Northern Hemisphere. In addition to marine mammals and birds, Q1 was also detected in fish from the Mediterranean Sea and the Antarctic. Traces were also detected in SRM 1588 certified cod liver oil, but Q1 was not detected in fish from Hong Kong and Lake Baikal.     

事故致因“2-4”模型及其事故原因因素编码研究

事故致因模型是用于事故原因分析和预防的重要理论依据,模型的可操作性是决定事故预防效果的重要影响因素。对目前国内研究较为持续和系统的事故致因"2-4"模型进行了深入研究,以增强其在事故分析时的可操作性。首先,研究了事故致因"2-4"模型中组织内、外部原因的各个阶段原因因素的划分情况;其次,根据得到的各阶段原因因素划分结果,对应用事故致因"2-4"模型分析事故原因的因素进行了编码;最后,以一起重大瓦斯爆炸事故为例,对事故致因"2-4"模型原因因素编码系统的有效性进行了实证研究。划分了事故致因"2-4"模型中的各原因模块中的原因因素,并得到了不安全动作和物态、习惯性不安全行为、安全管理体系、安全文化、外部因素等5个层级原因,确定了基于事故致因"2-4"模型的30个原因因素。对事故原因因素进行系统编码,提高了应用事故致因"2-4"模型进行事故原因分析和事故预防的可操作性,增强了其应用实践性。     

HFACS与24 Model:不安全动作原因的对比研究

不安全动作的定义、分类与识别尚未有统一标准,这给事故分析与预防带来许多困难。基于此,对人因分析与分类系统(HFACS)和24 Model中的不安全动作层面进行对比研究。在不安全动作对应方面:HFACS中的不安全动作均能对应到24 Model中的不安全动作,但HFACS没有涉及24 Model中不违章、未引起事故但高风险的不安全动作,因而无法实现事前预防。在间接原因对应方面,HFACS中不安全动作的产生原因均可与24 Model中的1个或多个间接原因相对应;HFACS中不安全动作的产生涉及较多生理、心理层面的原因,而考虑到实用性原则,24 Model暂未给出该两方面原因的具体分类方法。在不安全动作发出者方面:24 Model涉及组织内各层级人员,而HFACS仅指一线员工。在实际应用方面:两种模型均可用于不安全动作原因的统计分析;24 Model给出的不安全动作分类范围较HFACS广,在事故分析时所受局限性小,但易造成不安全动作遗漏;在用24 Model进行不安全动作分析时,应尽量细化动作分类及分析的深入程度,以及动作发出者的员工层级。     

HFACS中不安全监管因素与事故致因24 Model中不安全动作因素的对比分析

为了使HFACS这种事故分析方法能够在我国各种类型事故中得到应用,研究了HFACS的不安全监管因素中各指标的定义和分类,并将其与事故致因24 Model中的不安全动作因素进行对比,得出两者的对应关系和各自特点。结果表明:HFACS中多数不安全监管因素属于24 Model中的不安全动作,这些不安全动作的发出者都是监管者;24 Model中不安全动作的发出者既可以是事故的直接引发者,也可以是监管者。从监管的范畴来看,HFACS中不安全监管因素的范围小于24 Model中的监管范围,只包括组织内部的监管。     

2014年北京市PM2.5质量浓度分析及比对研究

本研究选择污染严重的北京作为研究区域,自2013年12月起至2014年12月,通过设在北五环中国环境科学研究院(CRAES)内的定点监测,获得375天有效平行样品(T和Q)。统计结果表明,2014年北京市PM_(2.5)质量浓度从优良水平的6.9μg/m~3到极重污染的422.1μg/m~3,年均浓度值在100μg/m~3左右。T组和Q组线性相关,但T/Q并非定值,冬季最高,R~2=0.974,对应T/Q=1.014,可能由于冬季污染程度较重,滤膜性能差异可忽略。除春季外,其它三季的PM_(2.5)都是T组>Q组,与石英膜的纤维结构不够致密有关。以T组质量浓度数据为准,与国控监测点奥体中心点公报的日均PM_(2.5)进行比对,结果显示二者基本同步,在春冬季呈现较高的污染浓度,在夏季最低。在严重污染时(PM_(2.5)>250.0μg/m~3),在线监测可能低估PM_(2.5)而T组能更客观地记录实际污染状况。统计2014年全年污染等级分布,4~8月份基本未出现重度污染,而在冬季采暖期10~12月份,优良天数不足50%。综合分析风速、相对湿度对PM_(2.5)质量浓度的影响,证实冬季取暖燃煤和无风、高湿、逆温的静稳天气是霾频发的主要原因。     

近地面臭氧污染过程和相关气象因子的分析

为了了解₃的污染过程,进行了包括全天24h₃浓度和气象参数的观测。分析了高浓度₃日的气象条件,表明高压天气形势、晴天少云、日照持续、气温升高、湿度低、温度垂直梯度和Ri数较高等是形成高浓度₃的有利条件。从₃浓度全天24h的观测结果发现,除12:00～14:00的主峰外,在0:00～4:00还有一个次峰。所有例子都表明₃浓度日变化和各气象因子有着很好的对应关系,值得注意的是,当风速和太阳辐射同步增减时,共同促使₃浓度增大,使₃在中午出现显著的峰值,当风速值出现在其他时间时,也可以使₃出现次峰。      

Providing the Spark: Impact of financial incentives on battery electric vehicle adoption

To overcome adoption barriers and promote battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as an energy efficient consumer transportation option, a number of states offer subsidies to consumers for BEVs. We use a national data set of vehicle registrations and state-level financial incentives to assess the impact of vehicle purchase subsidies on adoption using both difference-in-differences and synthetic controls methods. We find that incentives offered as direct purchase rebates generate increased levels of new BEV registrations at a rate of approximately 8 percent per thousand dollars of incentive offered. Between 2011 and 2015, vehicle rebate incentives are associated with an increase in overall BEV registrations of approximately 11 percent. Our findings indicate incentives offered as state income tax credits do not have a statistically significant effect on BEV adoptions, though we caution this may be a result of limited temporal variation in BEV incentives across our sample. Responses to rebate incentives do not differ significantly by the make of the vehicle purchased (i.e., Tesla and non-Tesla vehicles). We combine our results with recent assessments of marginal environmental costs of electric vehicle charging and measure net welfare effects of BEV subsidy programs. Our analysis indicates these programs are not welfare-improving if only considering benefits associated with avoided emissions. Additional benefits associated with long-term market growth, production cost savings, network externalities, or accelerated innovation could substantially impact the net welfare outcomes.     

睾丸酮丛毛单胞菌对喹啉类化合物的降解

对喹啉、异喹啉、2-甲基喹啉、3-甲基喹啉、4-甲基喹啉和6-甲基喹啉在睾丸酮丝毛单胞菌(Comamonas testosteroni Q10)作用下的降解及底物之间的相互作用进行研究．结果表明,喹啉和3-甲基喹啉不仅能有效地被降解,而且细菌也有明显的生长,而其它化合物虽有部分降解但没有观察到细胞生长．底物初始浓度的增加对菌Q10有一定抑制作用．喹啉的存在对其它化合物的降解具有不同的促进效应,其中尤以6-甲基喹啉和4-甲基喹啉最为明显．能在较短时间内得到完全去除,而在各二元体系中喹啉的降解受到这些化合物的抑制作用．     

国产Q345钢在不同热-力路径下的材料性能对比和材料模型应用

为评估和分析钢结构的耐火性能,以我国10个钢厂生产的Q345钢的424次恒载升温试验和152次恒温加载试验结果为依据,对钢材强度和应变以及不同的热-力作用路径下的力学性能进行对比研究。结果表明,在所有热-力作用路径下,恒载升温试验的强度最小,应变最大,临界温度最低;恒温加载试验的强度最大,应变最小,临界温度最高。随温度升高,热-力作用路径对钢材的力学性能影响增大:在450℃以下影响较小,在500℃以上时影响显著。如果规范采用恒温加载试验强度,是不可靠的。恒载升温条件下的ε-T-k材料模型和恒温加载条件下的ε-k-T材料模型均不能单独用于超静定钢结构的性能分析。超静定钢结构的性能分析可把火灾过程离散为若干时段,把每个时段分解为两个独立的应变-温度过程和应变-应力过程,分别应用恒载升温条件下的ε-T-k和恒温加载条件下的ε-k-T材料模型进行分析,然后迭加计算以得出最后的应变。