Tell the truth or not? The montero mechanism for emissions control at work

We experimentally test the truth-telling mechanism proposed by Montero (2008) for eliciting firms' abatement costs. We compare this mechanism with two well-known alternative allocation mechanisms, free and costly allocation of permits at the Pigouvian price. Controlling for the number of firms and the firms' maximal emissions, we find that, in line with the theoretical predictions, firms over-report their maximal emissions under free allocation of permits and under-report these under costly allocation of permits. Under Montero's mechanism, by contrast, firms almost always report their maximal emissions truthfully. However, in terms of efficiency, the difference between Montero's mechanism and costly allocation disappears with industries including more than one firm.     

Can climate mitigation help the poor? Measuring impacts of the CDM in rural China

This study examines whether investment in climate change mitigation contributes to poverty alleviation. We investigate the impacts of the renewable energy-based clean development mechanism (RE-CDM) projects on rural communities in China. The impacts of RE-CDM projects are estimated by combining propensity score matching with the difference-in-differences approach. We found that the biomass-based CDM projects significantly contribute to income improvement and employment generation in rural communities in China. Our estimation results also reveal that wind energy-based CDM projects have the potential to increase income and the share of labor force in the primary industry in rural areas. These results suggest different channels through which renewable energy sources affect income.     

Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles

We exploit recent advances in climate science to develop a physically consistent, yet surprisingly simple, model of climate policy. It seems that key economic models have greatly overestimated the delay between carbon emissions and warming, and ignored the saturation of carbon sinks that takes place when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide rises. This has important implications for climate policy. If carbon emissions are abated, damages are avoided almost immediately. Therefore it is optimal to reduce emissions significantly in the near term and bring about a slow transition to optimal peak warming, even if optimal steady-state/peak warming is high. The optimal carbon price should start relatively high and grow relatively fast.     

A new baseline model for estimating willingness to pay from discrete choice models

We show a substantive problem exists with the widely-used ratio of coefficients approach to calculating willingness to pay (WTP) from discrete choice models. The correctly calculated standard error for WTP using this approach is shown to be undefined. This occurs because the cost parameter's standard error implies some possibility the true parameter value is arbitrarily close to zero. We propose a simple yet elegant way to overcome this problem by reparameterizing the (negative) cost variable's coefficient using an exponential transformation to enforce the theoretically correct positive coefficient. With it the confidence interval for WTP is now finite and well behaved.     

Providing the Spark: Impact of financial incentives on battery electric vehicle adoption

To overcome adoption barriers and promote battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as an energy efficient consumer transportation option, a number of states offer subsidies to consumers for BEVs. We use a national data set of vehicle registrations and state-level financial incentives to assess the impact of vehicle purchase subsidies on adoption using both difference-in-differences and synthetic controls methods. We find that incentives offered as direct purchase rebates generate increased levels of new BEV registrations at a rate of approximately 8 percent per thousand dollars of incentive offered. Between 2011 and 2015, vehicle rebate incentives are associated with an increase in overall BEV registrations of approximately 11 percent. Our findings indicate incentives offered as state income tax credits do not have a statistically significant effect on BEV adoptions, though we caution this may be a result of limited temporal variation in BEV incentives across our sample. Responses to rebate incentives do not differ significantly by the make of the vehicle purchased (i.e., Tesla and non-Tesla vehicles). We combine our results with recent assessments of marginal environmental costs of electric vehicle charging and measure net welfare effects of BEV subsidy programs. Our analysis indicates these programs are not welfare-improving if only considering benefits associated with avoided emissions. Additional benefits associated with long-term market growth, production cost savings, network externalities, or accelerated innovation could substantially impact the net welfare outcomes.     

Temperature effects on mortality and household adaptation: Evidence from China

This paper examines the effects of extreme temperatures on mortality rates, using random year-to-year variation in temperature based on county-level panel data from China. The analysis finds a robust, U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality rates, indicating that extremely cold or hot temperatures lead to excess deaths. The heat-related (cold-related) effect is 3.5 times (3.2 times) as large as previous findings that used U.S. data, and it is especially large for the elderly population, mainly due to excess deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. Applying these results to climate change predictions from Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model shows that by 2061–2080 the annual mortality rate is likely to increase by 14.2% if global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century, the estimated health cost of which is around 0.98 trillion Chinese Yuan per year. The paper also explores households’ adaptation behaviors to extreme temperatures. It finds that although urban households adaptively increase energy consumption when they are exposed to cold temperatures and purchase more air conditioners on hot and cold days, rural households are unresponsive to temperature fluctuations. This finding implies that rural people may be more resource constrained and suffer more when extreme temperatures occur.     

Discounting in the presence of scarce ecosystem services

The discount rate for cost-benefit analysis has to take account of future scarcity of ecosystem services in consumption and production. Previous literature focuses on the first aspect and shows the importance of the relative price effect, for given growth rates of consumption and ecosystem services. This paper focuses on intermediate ecosystem services in production and shows that for limited substitutability and a low growth rate of these ecosystem services, the growth rate of consumption, and thus the discount rate, declines towards a low value. Using a Ramsey growth model, the paper distinguishes three cases. If ecosystem services can be easily substituted, the discount rate converges to the usual value in the long term. Secondly, if ecosystem services can be easily substituted in production but not in consumption, the relative price effect is important. Finally, and most interestingly, if ecosystem services cannot be easily substituted in production, the discount rate declines towards a low value and the relative price effect is less important. Another part of the previous literature has shown that a declining discount rate is the result of introducing several forms of uncertainty, but this paper reaches that conclusion from an endogenous effect on the growth rate of the economy.     

4种多环芳烃对仿刺参(Apostichopus japonicus)原肠胚发育的急性毒性研究

海洋中的多环芳烃(PAHs)具有较强的生物毒性,且海洋动物早期发育阶段是对环境因素变化响应的最敏感阶段。为探究海洋多环芳烃类有机污染物对仿刺参(Apostichopus japonicus)早期发育阶段原肠胚的毒性影响,采用半静态毒性实验方法,分别考察了4种多环芳烃苯并[a]芘、3-甲基菲、惹烯及2-甲基蒽对仿刺参原肠胚的24、48、72、96 h急性毒性效应。结果表明,在10、50、100、200μg·L~(-1)暴露浓度下,随着暴露时间的延长和暴露浓度的升高,4种多环芳烃对仿刺参原肠胚产生不同程度的急性毒性效应,仿刺参原肠胚存活率与4种多环芳烃浓度之间分别存在显著的剂量-效应关系(P0.05)。苯并[a]芘对仿刺参原肠胚在24、48 h的半致死浓度(LC_(50))分别为294.4、225.64 mg·L~(-1),3-甲基菲在24、48、72、96 h的LC_(50)分别为404.5、300.7、81.4、17.6mg·L~(-1),惹烯在24、48、72 h的LC_(50)分别为243.1、230、186 mg·L~(-1),2-甲基蒽在24、48、72、96 h的LC_(50)分别244、231.6、152.6、142.9 mg·L~(-1)。4种多环芳烃的安全浓度(SC)分别为39.76、49.8、61.8、62.6μg·L~(-1),其毒性大小顺序为苯并[a]芘3-甲基菲惹烯2-甲基蒽。基于定量构效关系(QSAR)的研究结果可知多环芳烃化合物的毒性差异可能与分子结构等性质有关。该实验为深入研究多环芳烃对海洋环境的毒性效应提供了理论依据。     

Ecosystems and human health: The local benefits of forest cover in Indonesia

This paper documents the effect of primary forest cover loss on increased incidence of malaria. The evidence is consistent with an ecological response. I show that land use change, anti-malarial programs or migration cannot explain the effect of primary forest cover loss on increased malarial incidence. Falsification tests reveal that the effect is specific to malaria, with forest cover having no discernible effect on other diseases with a disease ecology different from that of malaria. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that the morbidity-related malaria-reducing local benefits of primary forests are at least $1-$2 per hectare.     

Challenges with eradicating illegal mining in Ghana: A perspective from the grassroots

This paper argues that artisanal mining communities are somewhat bound to their operations, and helps explain why formalisation, alternative livelihood projects and military intervention—the traditional strategies employed by governments to tackle illegal mining—have proved ineffective. Findings from recent research carried out in Noyem (Eastern Region of Ghana) are used to illustrate why illegal artisanal mining is such a deeply rooted activity in sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis provides four explanations in support of this: a heavy involvement of traditional leaders in operations; the mindsets of many operators toward alternative income-earning activities; the numerous and diverse range of employment opportunities provided by the sector; and the level of investment in operations.