Investor demand and spot commodity prices

The on-going debate over the influence of investor demand on spot commodity prices largely attempts to assess this influence by measuring the growth in investor demand in recent years. Given the serious data problems that plague such analyses, this article pursues another approach in the hope of providing useful insights into the impact of investor demand on spot commodity prices. It focuses on the mechanisms by which investor demand affects spot prices, and in particular on two questions. First, how does an increase in investor demand on the futures markets affect the spot market and spot price? Second, when investor demand is increasing and pushing a commodity's price up, do physical stocks of the commodity also have to be rising, as economists and others widely assume?On the first question, the article concludes that a surge in investor demand raising prices on the futures markets will have a direct and comparable effect on the spot market prices when these markets are in strong contango. However, when markets are in weak contango or backwardation, price movements in the futures markets have a much looser effect on spot prices. As a result, changes in investor demand on the futures markets may have little or no influence on spot prices in the absence of a strong contango. Instead, changes in fundamentals (that is, producer supply and consumer demand) and possibly changes in investor demand taking place directly on the spot market largely determine the spot price at such times.On the second question, the article shows that investor demand can be pushing up a commodity's price even when investor stocks are falling, despite the widespread presumption to the contrary.     

珠江三角洲四种森林类型土壤CO_2通量特征研究

采用开路式土壤CO2通量测量系统Li-8100＆Li-8150对珠江三角洲地区尾叶桉（Eucalyptus urophylla）人工林、乡土树种恢复林、针阔叶混交林和常绿阔叶林4种林型的土壤CO2通量进行了观测。结果表明：4种森林类型年均土壤CO2通量为尾叶桉人工林（3.35μmol.m-2.s-1）〉针阔叶混交林（2.66μmol.m-2.s-1）〉乡土树种恢复林（2.09μmol.m-2.s-1）〉常绿阔叶林（1.86μmol.m-2.s-1）;旱季土壤CO2通量明显小于雨季。前3种森林类型凋落物呼吸处理表明,旱季对照组土壤CO2通量均小于相应的去除凋落物组、雨季则相反,全年的对比结果显示,3种森林类型的凋落物呼吸贡献分别达到1.3%、7.1%和10.8%。土壤CO2通量与10 cm土壤温度呈显著指数相关,且土壤CO2通量温度敏感指数表现为针阔叶混交林Q10最大（3.49）,尾叶桉人工林Q10最小（1.95）。     

Q345钢在不同pH值人工海水中的电偶腐蚀行为研究

目的 研究不同pH值的人工海水环境中电偶腐蚀对金属的影响。方法 利用自行设计的可拆卸电极,采用浸泡法和电化学方法,结合宏观和微观腐蚀形貌,对Q345钢在不同pH人工海水中的电偶腐蚀行为进行分析。结果 在浸泡初期,不同pH值海水环境中电连接电极间的电位差相差较小,不易发生电偶腐蚀;浸泡至14 d,电极间的电位差相差较大,这表明不同电连接电极之间发生明显的电偶腐蚀。与自腐蚀相比,pH为7.50和8.40的电偶腐蚀的腐蚀电位较大,腐蚀电流密度较小,腐蚀产物膜电阻Rp较大,说明在pH值为7.50和8.40时,电连接电极间的腐蚀以自腐蚀为主。在pH值为7.80和8.70时,电连接电极间发生明显的电偶腐蚀。自腐蚀电极表面的腐蚀产物较少,锈层结构疏松。电偶腐蚀中,在pH为7.50和8.40的电极表面的腐蚀产物较少,锈层结构致密;pH为7.80和8.70的电极表面的腐蚀产物较多,锈层结构比较疏松。结论 通过研究2种腐蚀行为的差异,分析pH值的不同对电偶腐蚀的影响,为海洋环境金属材料的腐蚀防护提供数据支持。     

三种除锈方式对Q235钢表面涂层耐蚀性能的影响

目的对比研究3种不同除锈方式(打磨除锈、先除锈后磷化、除锈-磷化一体化)处理Q235钢表面后,对涂层的耐腐蚀性能的影响。方法在3种除锈方式处理后的Q235钢表面喷涂石墨烯环氧富锌底漆,测试涂层的附着力,通过中性盐雾试验测试涂层的耐腐蚀性能。结果Q235钢经过除锈-磷化一体化处理后,表面性能变优,涂层附着力达到13.6MPa,1000h中性盐雾试验后,涂层不起泡、不脱落,腐蚀程度小。结论除锈-磷化处理Q235钢表面可有效提高防腐涂层的耐蚀性能,与先除锈后磷化相比,简化了工艺过程。     

Effect of hybridization with genome exclusion on extinction risk

Human‐induced habitat changes may lead to the breakdown of reproductive barriers between distantly related species. This phenomenon may result in fertile first‐generation hybrids (F₁) that exclude the genome of one parental species during gametogenesis, thus disabling introgression. The species extinction risk associated with hybridization with genome exclusion is largely underappreciated because the phenomenon produces only F₁ hybrid phenotype, leading to the misconception that hybrids are sterile and potentially of minor conservation concern. We used a simulation model that integrates the main genetic, demographic, and ecological processes to examine the dynamics of hybridization with genome exclusion. We showed that this mode of hybridization may lead to extremely rapid extinction when the process of genome exclusion is unbalanced between the interbreeding species and when the hybridization rate is not negligible. The coexistence of parental species was possible in some cases of asymmetrical genome exclusion, but show this equilibrium was highly vulnerable to environmental variation. Expanding the exclusive habitat of the species at risk allowed its persistence. Our results highlight the extent of possible extinction risk due to hybridization with genome exclusion and suggest habitat management as a promising conservation strategy. In anticipation of serious threats to biodiversity due to hybridization with genome exclusion, we recommend a detailed assessment of the reproductive status of hybrids in conservation programs. We suggest such assessments include the inspection of genetic content in hybrid gametes.     

Wrestling with the complexity of evaluation for organizations at the boundary of science,policy, and practice

Boundary organizations are situated between science, policy, and practice and have a goal of supporting communication and collaboration among these sectors. They have been promoted as a way to improve the effectiveness of conservation efforts by building stronger relationships between scientists, policy makers, industry, and practitioners (Cook et al. 2013). Although their promise has been discussed in theory, the work of and expectations for boundary organizations are less defined in practice. Biodiversity conservation is characterized by complexity, uncertainty, dissent, and tight budgets, so boundary organizations face the challenging task of demonstrating their value to diverse stakeholders. We examined the challenges boundary organizations face when seeking to evaluate their work and thus aimed to encourage more productive conversations about evaluation of boundary organizations and their projects. Although no off‐the‐shelf solution is available for a given boundary organization, we identified 4 principles that will support effective evaluation for boundary organizations: engage diverse stakeholders, support learning and reflection, assess contribution to change, and align evaluation with assumption and values.     

Tying enforcement to prices in emissions markets: An experimental evaluation

We present results from laboratory emissions permit markets designed to investigate the transmission of abatement cost risk to firms' compliance behavior and regulatory enforcement strategies. With a fixed expected marginal penalty, abatement cost shocks produced significant violations and emissions volatility as predicted. Tying the monitoring probability to average permit prices effectively eliminated noncompliance, but transmitted abatement cost risk to monitoring effort. Tying the penalty to average prices reduced violations, but did not eliminate them. Some individuals in these treatments sold permits at low prices, presumably in an attempt to weaken enforcement. While tying sanctions directly to prevailing permit prices has theoretical and practical advantages over tying monitoring to prices, our results suggest that tying sanctions to prices may not be as effective as predicted without additional modifications.     

Neighborhood effects in the Brazilian Amazônia: Protected areas and deforestation

This article investigates whether protected areas are efficient instruments against deforestation in the Brazilian Amazônia. A Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model taking into account both the location bias and the spatial spillover effects between municipalities allows to assess the impact of the different types of protected areas (integral protected areas, sustainable protected areas and indigenous lands) on deforestation. We show that deforestation decisions are strategic complements. The econometric results differ according to the type of protected area. It is shown that: i) integral protected areas and indigenous lands allow for reducing deforestation; ii) sustainable use areas do not help to reduce deforestation; and iii) the spillover effects generated by integral protected areas and indigenous lands lead a reduction in deforestation in their vicinity. A 10% increase in the surface area of integral protected areas (indigenous lands) allows an estimated 9.32 sq. km (10.08 sq. km) of avoided deforestation.     

Input–output analysis in an oil-rich economy: The case of Azerbaijan

This paper aims to provide empirical research to identify the linkages between final demand–total output, final demand–total supply, value-added ratios and prices, and also to analyze total factor productivity growth using input–output framework for 25 sectors. Studying the input–output tables for 2001 and 2006, the research estimates impact and response multipliers of non-oil sectors, as well as non-oil trading sectors. The results are important from the view of development of non-oil trading sectors and diversification of the economy in order to avoid the “resource curse”.     

Black swans,cognition, and the power of learning from failure

Failure carries undeniable stigma and is difficult to confront for individuals, teams, and organizations. Disciplines such as commercial and military aviation, medicine, and business have long histories of grappling with it, beginning with the recognition that failure is inevitable in every human endeavor. Although conservation may arguably be more complex, conservation professionals can draw on the research and experience of these other disciplines to institutionalize activities and attitudes that foster learning from failure, whether they are minor setbacks or major disasters. Understanding the role of individual cognitive biases, team psychological safety, and organizational willingness to support critical self‐examination all contribute to creating a cultural shift in conservation to one that is open to the learning opportunity that failure provides. This new approach to managing failure is a necessary next step in the evolution of conservation effectiveness.