混沌理论在事故分析及预测中的应用

在对江苏常州市某公司安全事故资料进行大量调查与统计的基础上,应用混沌理论分析了该公司安全事故的混沌特征,指出了事故对初始条件的敏感依赖性和事故的长期不可预测性。应用重构相空间理论对安全事故次数的时间序列进行了分析和预测。同时,还对安全事故统计资料进行了R/S分析,得出该时间序列以2 0 0 1年6月为界限,存在两个Hurst指数,H1=1.6 82 8和H2 =0 .2 936 ,表明在以3个月为时间统计尺度的条件下,事故发生次数在前一时间段整体表现为持久相关性,而在后一时间段表现为反持久相关性。预测与分析结果与实际情况符合较好,表明应用混沌理论进行事故分析与预测是可行的,反映了事故的发展趋势。     

Effects of recreational use on forested sites

Impact of recreational activities on soil and vegetation was evaluated in eight forested camping and picnic areas in southern Rhode Island. Forest vegetation consists of mixed-oak and white pine stands. Soils are of granitic glacial till or outwash origin and textures range from loamy sand to find sandy loam. Recreational use resulted in significant compaction of soils as indexed by soil penetration resistance and bulk density. Evidence indicates that compaction influences bulk densities to a depth of about 12.7 cm. Rates of water infiltration are less on recreation areas. Soil water accretion and depletion during the growing season are less rapid on recreation sites than on control sites. Differences are attributed to reduced infiltration, percolation, and rooting activity. Much of the ground surface on recreation areas is devoid of vegetation. The surface consists primarily of bare mineral soil, rock, or litter. The plants most commonly present are grasses. Native ground cover vegetation including tree seedlings, ericaceous shrubs and herbs has been eliminated or greatly reduced by trampling. Damage to tree trunks is common in recreation areas. White pine radial growth and scarlet oak height growth were significantly less on recreation sites. Scarlet oak appears intolerant to heavy recreation use.     

基于 M －MP2R 的现代安全管理方法研究

如何减少事故造成的人员伤亡和经济损失,有效预防事故及高效处置事故是现代安全管理研究的方向。基于PDCA理论的研究以及现代应急管理和现代安全管理的发展趋势,提出M －MP2R动态的现代安全管理新方法,构建M－MP2R模型与体系,模拟出M－MP2R运行流程,分析M－MP2R的特点,并指出其存在的问题,丰富了现代安全管理的研究内容。     

R/S法的土石坝施工期沉降规律及预警标准研究

为提高施工期土石坝沉降安全性,研究其具有复杂非线性特征的施工期沉降规律和相应的预警标准。基于国内某在建高土石坝的沉降数据,采用R/S法分析坝体不同高程测点、同高程测点和同测点不同时期沉降数据的Hurst指数及分形维数,提出评价坝体施工期沉降安全性的预警标准。结果表明:各测点的Hurst指数最小值为0.763,坝内各处沉降仍处于快速增长阶段;坝体下部比上部、中部比下游堆石区沉降能更快趋于稳定,且坝体下部的沉降速率已经渐趋平缓。     

R290制冷剂惰化燃爆特性实验研究

为了研究R290制冷剂惰化燃爆特性,采用带搅拌功能和氧浓度在线测定的20L球试验装置,对R290制冷剂进行了极限氧浓度测定。实验测定了丙烷在CO2和N2惰化气氛中的爆炸极限及极限空气浓度LAC,确定丙烷的极限氧浓度LOC;采用三元图爆炸区、丙烷-O2二维图爆炸区和ASTM标准分布图分析了混合气体爆炸区边界的燃爆特征,给出了极限氧浓度的确定方法和边界爆炸压力分布规律。实验结果表明:常温常压下R290的爆炸极限为2.1%～9.6%,CO2惰化气氛中的极限氧浓度为13.3%,对应的丙烷浓度为3.3%;N2惰化气氛中的极限氧浓度为10.8%,对应的丙烷浓度为2.7%。通过对比分析不同CO2和N2浓度下的爆炸区分布特征,表明CO2对丙烷的惰化效果要优于N2,以氮气和二氧化氮体积分数比为1∶2测试惰化气氛保护能力,惰化效果介于同浓度单种惰性气体之间。     

Screening and identification of bacterial strain producing (R)-1-phenyl-1,2-Ethanediol by efficient whole-cell catalytic reduction system北大核心CSCD

(R)-1-Phenyl-1,2-ethanediol [(R)-PED] is an important chiral intermediate used to synthesize pharmaceutical intermediates. The production of (R)-PED is of great practical significance. A novel bacterial strain HBU-SI7 isolated from soil samples was screened using a-hydroxyacetophenone (2-HAP) as substrate, which is capable of enantioselective reduction of 2-HAP to (R)-PED. HBU-SI7 was identified as Rhodococcus sp. by bacterial morphological observation and 16S rDNA analysis. The analysis of whole-cell catalytic system showed that the bioconversion of 2-HAP reached 96.2% in the two-phase reaction system (dibutyl phthalate/phosphate buffer = 1/3, V/V) with the substrate concentration of 3.0 g/L, and 99.3% of e.e. for (R)-PED was achieved. A new enantio selective reduction system with the whole cells of Rhodococcus sp. was established for efficient production of (R)-PED, which has potential research and application values. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.     

Increases in Nitrate Concentrations in the River Frome (Dorset) Catchment Related to Changes in Land Use, Fertiliser Applications and Sewage Input

Nitrate concentrations and nitrate loads throughout the River Frome catchment (Dorset) are compared for the periods 1970-71 and 1984-86. Nitrate concentrations and loads have increased at every site, the increase in mean nitrate concentrations varying from 31% to 123%. These increases in nitrate concentrations are related to changes in land use and fertiliser applications and also to an increase in sewage effluent entering the river.     

基于3S技术的生态安全动态监测——以秦皇岛为例

遥感技术（RS）、地理信息系统（GIS）、全球定位系统（GPS），即3S技术，在生态安全评价研究中能够快速获取动态变化信息，并进行空间叠加分析，比传统方法更具优越性。通过论述基于3S技术的生态安全评价的理论和方法，对秦皇岛市的生态环境进行动态监测和分析，包括土地利用、植被指数和植被覆盖度、土壤侵蚀等，评价结果比较符合实际。