STORM RUNOFF PREDICTION BASED ON A SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED TRAVEL TIME METHOD UTILIZING REMOTE SENSING AND GIS1

ABSTRACT: In this study, remotely sensed data and geographic information system (GIS) tools were used to estimate storm runoff response for Simms Creek watershed in the Etonia basin in northeast Florida. Land cover information from digital orthophoto quarter quadrangles (DOQQ), and enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM+) were analyzed for the years 1990, 1995, and 2000. The corresponding infiltration excess runoff response of the study area was estimated using the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (NRCS‐CN) method. A digital elevation model (DEM)/GIS technique was developed to predict stream response to runoff events based on the travel time from each grid cell to the watershed outlet. A comparison of predicted to observed stream response shows that the model predicts the total runoff volume with an efficiency of 0.98, the peak flow rate at an efficiency of 0.85, and the full direct runoff hydrograph with an average efficiency of 0.65. The DEM/GIS travel time model can be used to predict the runoff response of ungaged watersheds and is useful for predicting runoff hydrographs resulting from proposed large scale changes in the land use.     

危险废物回转式流化冷渣多段焚烧系统焚烧特性研究

危险废物的处理和处置是摆在我国各级市政府面前的紧迫任务。然而我国已经运行的危险废物焚烧装置普遍存在回转窑挂壁结渣、热灼减率偏高和污染排放超标等问题,作者通过将回转窑和流化床特点相结合的方法提出了一种新型危险废物回转式流化冷渣多段焚烧处置装置。该装置采用回转窑(一燃室)、二燃室和流化床结合的热解-流化焚烧工艺,特别是采用控制窑头温度避免了回转窑挂壁结渣;采用流化冷渣装置延长未燃烬渣的焚烧时间,解决了热灼减率偏高问题;水冷式烟气急冷装置可以将烟气温度从1 100℃降到200℃,防止了二恶英的尾部低温再生成。该系统运行稳定可靠,可以处理医疗垃圾和大多数的固态和液态危险废物,实现了烟气污染物尤其是二恶英排放达到国家标准的目标。同时对该系统运行时窑头温度分布、二燃室炉膛出口氧量变化、回转窑和炉膛升温特性、燃烧室外壁温度分布等几方面运行数据都进行了详细的介绍,为危险废物焚烧炉的运行提供了宝贵的经验数据。     

关于安全阀整定压力判定方法的讨论

安全阀整定压力是安全阀重要的技术指标之一。国内安全阀检验机构主要通过压力曲线拐点法或听声音法判定安全阀整定压力,国内外型式试验机构通过开高位移判定安全阀整定压力。通过比对试验发现：压力曲线拐点法或听声音法容易受到安全阀结构形式、是否有前泄及安全阀校验台试验容器和储气罐容积不能满足法规要求等因素影响检验的准确性;开高位移判定更为客观、准确。     

抗除草剂转基因作物实时荧光定量PC检测

建立了一种以SYBR Green Ⅰ为结合染料、快速准确检测转抗除草剂基因成分的实时荧光定量PCR方法.以转基因大豆与转基因玉米标准品为材料,通过使用特异性引物和SYBR Green Ⅰ结合染料实时荧光定量PCR技术,对转基因农作物中外源抗除草剂基因进行了定量检测,绘制了两种基因扩增的标准曲线图,根据标准曲线方程计算外源基因含量;并作了溶解曲线、检测方法检测灵敏度和精密度的分析.研究发现,两者标准曲线方程线性关系良好.R~2 值分别达到0.993 9与0.992 4.通过已知标准品进行验证,实测值与真值接近,与实际含量的相埘偏差是6.52%和7.90%.结果表明,SYBR Green Ⅰ结合染料法完全可以用于转基因农作物定量PCR检测.图5表2参11     

大坝安全评价的可接受风险研究与评述

评述了国内外安全领域可接受风险研究的历史和现状.根据事故后果对风险进行分类,对不同类型风险给出风险定量表示方法,针对不同的风险定量表示方法,应用F-N曲线和ALARP准则研究相应的可接受风险确定方法,并就其在大坝安全风险评价领域的应用进行探讨.     

活性粉末混凝土(RPC)的断裂力学性能

在试验及观察的基础上,对活性粉末混凝土的断裂过程进行定性分析,给出活性粉末混凝土的裂纹发展原理及钢纤维的增韧机理,并分析其不同于普通混凝土的两个基本断裂特征。介绍了利用缺口梁三点弯曲试验确定混凝土拉伸软化本构方程的方法。基于Hillerborg模型,提出活性粉末混凝土的拉伸软化模型,根据三点弯曲断裂试验结果,确定出活性粉末混凝土的双线性拉伸软化曲线中的具体参数。据该软化曲线公式,计算出的活性粉末混凝土断裂能同试验得出的值相比,误差仅为0.9%。笔者得出的双线性软化曲线能较精确地反映活性粉末混凝土材料的断裂特性,可为今后进行RPC裂缝的分析和预测提供定量计算的依据,对于研究活性粉末混凝土的断裂能、尺寸效应等问题也很具意义。     

旅行成本法在我国应用中存在的几个问题

我国旅行成本法案例研究多数未分清旅行成本与旅游目的地本身价格的关系,推导的游憩需求曲线是旅行成本-旅游人次模型,而不是旅游目的地本身的价格-旅游人次需求曲线。文章具体说明了区域旅行成本法的基本原理及操作方法,并用乔光华文章数据重新对达里诺尔国家级自然保护区游憩价值进行计算,对旅行成本的构成等问题进行了讨论,得出其消费者剩余为0.9221×108元a/,比原研究中的0.0937×108元a/高出近10倍。认为乔光华等的研究在推断游憩需求曲线时存在方法上的问题,直接将旅行成本和时间价值作为游憩价值不符合旅行成本法的基本原理和公共物品无(或低)市场价格的经济理论。还对调整后的旅行成本数据进行了计算,得到保护区游憩价值为1.3581×108元a/。     

Theory of storage,inventory and volatility in the LME base metals

The theory of storage, as related to commodities, makes two predictions involving the quantity of the commodity held in inventory. When inventory is low (i.e. a situation of scarcity), spot prices will exceed futures prices, and spot price volatility will exceed futures price volatility. Conversely, during periods of no scarcity, both spot prices and spot price volatility will remain relatively subdued. We test these predictions for the six base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc), and find strong validation for the theory. Including Chinese inventories reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange strengthens the relationship further. We also introduce the concepts of excess volatility, inventory-implied spot price and inventory-implied spot volatility and illustrate some applications.     

Estimation of Daily Streamflow of Southeastern Coastal Plain Watersheds by Combining Estimated Magnitude and Sequence

Commonly used methods to predict streamflow at ungauged watersheds implicitly predict streamflow magnitude and temporal sequence concurrently. An alternative approach that has not been fully explored is the conceptualization of streamflow as a composite of two separable components of magnitude and sequence, where each component is estimated separately and then combined. Magnitude is modeled using the flow duration curve (FDC), whereas sequence is modeled by transferring streamflow sequence of gauged watershed(s). This study tests the applicability of the approach on watersheds ranging in size from about 25‐7,226 km² in Southeastern Coastal Plain (U.S.) with substantial surface storage of wetlands. A 19‐point regionalized FDC is developed to estimate streamflow magnitude using the three most selected variables (drainage area, hydrologic soil index, and maximum 24‐h precipitation with a recurrence interval of 100 years) by a greedy‐heuristic search process. The results of validation on four watersheds (Trent River, North Carolina: 02092500; Satilla River, Georgia: 02226500; Black River, South Carolina: 02136000; and Coosawhatchie River, South Carolina: 02176500) yielded Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.86‐0.98 for the predicted magnitude and 0.09‐0.84 for the predicted daily streamflow over a simulation period of 1960‐2010. The prediction accuracy of the method on two headwater watersheds at Santee Experimental Forest in coastal South Carolina was weak, but comparable to simulations by MIKE‐SHE.     

CS_2——ACF动态吸附体系的穿透曲线理论预测

本文从理论上推导出建立在ACF(活性炭纤维)上的穿透曲线数学模型,并引入了误差函数的概念得出近似解,为吸附动力学机理的研究和工程应用计算提供了方便。