Economic Growth and Marine Biodiversity: Influence of Human Social Structure on Decline of Marine Trophic Levels

Abstract:  We assessed the effects of economic growth, urbanization, and human population size on marine biodiversity. We used the mean trophic level (MTL) of marine catch as an indicator of marine biodiversity and conducted cross-national time-series analyses (1960–2003) of 102 nations to investigate human social influences on fish catch and trends in MTL. We constructed path models to examine direct and indirect effects relating to marine catch and MTL. Nations' MTLs declined with increased economic growth, increased urbanization, and increased population size, in part because of associated increased catch. These findings contradict the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, which claims that economic modernization will reduce human impact on the environment. To make informed decisions on issues of marine resource management, policy makers, nonprofit entities, and professional societies must recognize the need to include social analyses in overall conservation-research strategies. The challenge is to utilize the socioeconomic and ecological research in the service of a comprehensive marine-conservation movement.     

山东省环境库兹涅茨曲线的检验与分析

环境库兹涅茨曲线假设反映的是经济增长与环境质量之间呈现倒U型的曲线关系.在对二次函数、三次函数以及对数函数等3种模型比较分析的基础上,考察了山东省的环境库兹涅茨曲线假设.结果表明:二氧化硫排放量和烟尘排放量比较符合倒U型环境库兹涅茨曲线,转折点分别为人均GDP 5 029和1 881元,发生的年代分别为1994—1995年和1990—1991年;工业废水排放量和工业固体废物产生量仍处于上升阶段,曲线的转折点还未达到.政策分析表明,建立官员环境保护考核机制,不仅与环境保护投资的增加存在时间上的一致性,而且在污染物排放防治上起到了明显的作用.      

弯道路段集重型大型货物运输车辆通过宽度研究*

为研究集重型大型货物运输车辆在弯道路段不同圆曲线半径条件下的通过宽度,基于Ackerman转向原理建立集重型大型货物运输车辆转弯模型,研究道路圆曲线路段车辆通过所需道路宽度与牵引车前轴中心运行半径和液压轴线挂车长度间的关系;得到车辆外廓弯道最外侧点的判别方法,以及牵引车前轴中心运行半径、液压轴线挂车长度对车辆通过所需道路宽度的影响强度、相对优势影响区域及三者间的分段函数关系;得到典型车辆通过不同半径弯道所需道路宽度与牵引车前轴中心运行半径间的关系。结果表明:计算方法及结果可为大型货物运输道路规划设计和集重型大型货物的运输路径优选提供理论依据。     

Development of injury risk models to guide CT evaluation in the emergency department after motor vehicle collisions

Abstract

Objective: The clinical evaluation of motor vehicle collision (MVC) victims is challenging and commonly relies on computed tomography (CT) to detect internal injuries. CT scans are financially expensive and each scan exposes the patient to additional ionizing radiation with an associated, albeit low, risk of cancer. Injury risk prediction based on regression modeling has been to be shown to be successful in estimating Injury Severity Scores (ISSs). The objective of this study was to (1) create risk models for internal injuries of occupants involved in MVCs based on CT body regions (head, neck, chest, abdomen/pelvis, cervical spine, thoracic spine, and lumbar spine) and (2) evaluate the performance of these risk prediction models to predict internal injury.

Methods: All Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2008 injury codes were classified based on which CT body region would be necessary to scan in order to make the diagnosis. Cases were identified from the NASS-CDS. The NASS-CDS data set was queried for cases of adult occupants who sought medical care and for which key crash characteristics were all present. Forward stepwise logistic regression was performed on data from 2010–2014 to create models predicting risk of internal injury for each CT body region. Injury risk for each region was grouped into 5 levels: very low (<2%), low (2–5%), medium (5–10%), high (10–20%), and very high (20%). The models were then tested using weighted data from 2015 in order to determine whether injury rates fell within the predicted risk level.

Results: The inclusion and exclusion criteria identified 5,477 cases in the NASS-CDS database. Cases from 2010–2014 were used for risk modeling (n?=?4,826). Seven internal injury risk models were created based on the CT body regions using data from 2010–2014. These models were tested against data from 2015 (n?=?651). In all CT body regions, the majority of occupants fell in the very low or low predicted injury rate groups, except for the head. On average, 57% of patients were classified as very low risk and 15% as low risk for each body region. In most cases the actual rate of injury was within the predicted injury risk range. The 95% confidence interval overlapped with predicting injury risk range in all cases.

Conclusion: This study successfully demonstrated the ability for internal injury risk models to accurately identify occupants at low risk for internal injury in individual body regions. This represents a step towards incorporating telemetry data into a clinical tool to guide physicians in the use of CT for the evaluation of MVC victims.     

产业资源相对承载力视角下民族地区产业发展与经济增长路径研究

使用1996—2014年我国民族8省区的面板数据,构建产业资源相对承载力模型及产业发展库兹涅茨曲线模型,对区域产业发展、经济增长、产业资源相对承载能力三者之间的关系及其动态变化进行分析。研究发现,我国民族地区三次产业综合资源相对承载力约为32 784.7万人,状态均小于0,呈富裕状态,平均富裕人口约13 817.53万人,平均富裕率高达72.82%。其中第一产业资源相对承载力对区域综合产业资源相对承载力平均贡献率为46.18%,第二产业资源相对承载力平均贡献率为44.38%,第三产业资源相对承载力平均贡献率为9.43%;第三产业资源相对承载力增长速度最快,增长率高达32.68%。产业发展初期,第一产业经济拉动效果最为显著。从产业持续发展与经济增长动态关系来看,第一产业发展呈"倒U型"库兹涅茨曲线关系;第二产业发展呈二次曲线正相关上升部分关系;第三产业发展呈"U型"曲线的关系。基于产业资源相对承载力视角,民族地区产业发展应当遵循如下发展路径:第一产业应当在保证粮食等必要初级产品供给安全的前提下,调整结构,以特色资源为引导,进一步扩大产业特色资源的规模效益;第二产业必须以转变发展方式为主要任务,走集约发展路线,以产业资源承载能力及生态承载力为红线,保持产业适度规模;第三产业发展应当以扩大规模,提高质量,提升产业资源承载能力为主要任务,充分释放产业资源的资本化能力,推动经济发展。     

Development of Regional Curves for Hydrologic Landscape Regions (HLR) in the Contiguous United States

Regional curves relate drainage area to the bankfull channel characteristics discharge, cross‐sectional area, width, and mean depth. These curves are used for a variety of purposes, including aiding in the field identification of bankfull elevation and in the natural channel design process. When developing regional curves, the degree to which landform, geology, climate, and vegetation influence stream systems within a single physiographic province may not be fully considered. This study examined the use of the U.S. Geological Survey's Hydrologic Landscape Regions (HLR), as well as data from 2,856 independent sites throughout the contiguous United States (U.S.), to develop a set of regional curves (bankfull discharge, cross‐sectional area, width, and mean depth) for (1) the contiguous U.S., (2) each of the 20 HLRs, (3) each of the eight physiographic divisions, (4) 22 of the 25 physiographic provinces, and (5) individual HLRs within the physiographic provinces. These regional curves were then compared to each other, as well as those from the literature. Regional curves developed for individual HLRs, physiographic divisions, and physiographic provinces tended to outperform the contiguous U.S. indicating increased stratification was beneficial. Further stratifying physiographic provinces by HLR markedly improved regional curve reliability. Use of HLR as a basis of regional curve development, rather than physiographic region alone, may allow for the development of more robust regional curves.     

Effect Of Reagent (Dye) Addition In Wet Chemical Method Of Sulfur Dioxide Determination In Ambient Air

For measurement of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) in ambient air, the United States Environment Protection Agency (US EPA) had recommended the PRA dye-based colorimetric method as a reference technique. The method has been developed and applied in many countries for a longtime; however information regarding the sensitivity of the method with respect to sampling and analysis conditions is not available. Collaborative studies conducted in some of the South East Asian countries indicated substantial variations (of the order of 50%) in the measured concentrations against the true values. It was observed that dye used for color development plays an important role and even a slight variation in the way the dye solution is prepared can cause substantial variation in the measured SO₂ concentration. Because a major objective of air quality measurements is to relate air pollution concentration to the effects of air pollution, it is important that the method used should yield accurate levels of the pollutant, so that appropriate management plans can be devised and implemented effectively. In the present investigation, therefore, the role of dye used in SO₂ monitoring method has been highlighted. Different makes of dyes prepared in different modes were used to study the variation in the measured SO₂ concentration levels. Specifications of all the dyes were also tested. Need for use of certified reference material (CRM) for SO₂ has also been emphasized.     

Evaluating Ecological Indicators: Lakes In The Northeastern United States

We use data from a survey of several hundred lakes in the northeastern United States by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to illustrate an approach to identifying promising indicators of lake condition. We construct a hypothetical gold standard of water quality from the first principal component of 16 chemical variables measured in the lakes, and examine its associations with 71 candidate indicators based on measurements of human activity, birds, fish and zooplankton in the lakes or their watersheds. Nonparametric summaries of these associations – based on rank correlations and receiver-operating-characteristic curves – suggest that variables summarizing the extent of human disturbance are generally the strongest indicators. To the extent that our water-quality variable is a useful proxy for ecological condition, our results suggest that easily-obtained measures of human activity are at least as predictive as many of the harder-to-measure biological indicators that have been proposed.     

部分重金属化合物对淡水发光菌的毒性研究

应用微板毒性分析方法,分别测定了CdCl2·2.5H2O、CoSO4·5H2O、Cr(NO3)3·3H2O、Cu(NO3)2·3H2O、Fe(NO3)3·3H2O、MnCl2·9H2O、Na2SeO3、ZnSO4·7H2O、Ni(NO3)2·6H2O9种重金属离子化合物及其混合物对淡水发光菌—青海弧菌Q67(Vibrio-qinghaiensissp.—Q67)的发光抑制毒性.结果表明,9种重金属离子化合物对Q67的剂量-效应关系均可用Weibull或Logit模型有效描述.由拟合剂量-效应曲线得到这9种重金属离子化合物的半数效应浓度EC50的负对数值(-logEC50)分别为4.35、3.08、2.39、3.83、3.34、2.39、3.32、3.93和2.76,说明其毒性顺序为:CdCl2·2.5H2O>ZnSO4·7H2O>Cu(NO3)2·3H2O>Fe(NO3)3·3H2O>Na2SeO3>CoSO4·5H2O>Ni(NO3)2·6H2O>Cr(NO3)3·3H2O≈MnCl2·9H2O.为了研究重金属混合物的毒性规律,设计了4组等效应浓度(EC50、EC15、EC10和EC5)比混合物,测试了其混合物毒性,并应用剂量加和(DA)、独立作用(IA)原理及经典联合毒性评价方法进行了分析.DA与IA分析表明,所研究的4种混合物的毒性具有拮抗特征,而毒性单位法(TU)和混合指数法(MTI)的评价结果均为部分相加作用,相加指数法(AI)的评价结果则为拮抗作用.所选评价方法不同,混合物毒性评价结果可能也不同.     

矿化垃圾对焦化废水吸附能力与降解能力的研究

通过对矿化垃圾生物反应器处理焦化废水的研究,以穿透曲线为理论依据,确定了反应床的设计方案,采取以海绵作为生物反应床的隔层,很好地解决废水贴壁短路的现象,提高了单位矿化垃圾的吸附量。同时对不同温度、不同CODCr浓度以及不同进料量进行了优化。微生物的降解能力在30℃时更理想,且矿化垃圾对氨氮的吸附能力远远好于CODCr,微生物生长所需要的最适pH值为7.5。高浓度CODCr对微生物的抑制作用导致生物降解能力小于矿化垃圾反应床的吸附能力。