一种新的环境与经济评价指数方法的研究

本文针对目前面临的经济发展和环境影响难于定量评价的难题,基于库兹涅茨曲线原理建立了一个对指定样本以经济指标和环境指标为变量的评价指数(库线指数)。并分别将区域、行业或企业设为样本,以其生产总值和污染物排放量为变量,进行了库线指数计算、分析和评价。结果表明该指数能够清晰地说明评价样本经济发展和环境影响的相互关系性质和变化趋势。     

离散型EKC模型与中国“十一五”期间二氧化硫减排目标分析

中国目前已成为二氧化硫排放的第一大国,减排工作受到整个国家乃至全世界的关注。本文以中国政府“十一五”期间二氧化硫减排目标为研究对象,以库兹涅茨的倒“U”型理论为分析基础,研究中国的二氧化硫减排问题。首先,我们通过对影响二氧化硫排放的主要因素进行分析,建立离散型EKC模型,分析中国二氧化硫排放出现转折点的条件;其次,研究了中国政府的“十一五”减排目标,分析“十一五”已过去的前两年,我们所采取的减排力度与减排目标的差距,以及在“十一五”的最后三年,我们面临的减排形势与影响因素。     

Comparison of alternative strategies for invasive species distribution modeling

Species distribution models (SDMs) can provide useful information for managing biological invasions, such as identification of priority areas for early detection or for determining containment boundaries. However, prediction of invasive species using SDMs can be challenging because they typically violate the core assumption of being at equilibrium with their environment, which may lead to poorly guided management resulting from high levels of omission. Our goal was to provide a suite of potential decision strategies (DSs) that were not reliant on the equilibrium assumption but rather could be chosen to better match the management application, which in this case was to ensure containment through adequate surveillance. We used presence-only data and expert knowledge for model calibration and presence/absence data to evaluate the potential distribution of an introduced mesquite (Leguminoseae: Prosopis) invasion located in the Pilbara Region of northwest Western Australia. Five different DSs with varying levels of conservatism/risk were derived from a multi-criteria evaluation model using ordered weighted averaging. The performance of DSs over all possible thresholds was examined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. DSs not on the convex hull of the ROC curves were discarded. Two threshold determination methods (TDMs) were compared on the two remaining DSs, one that assumed equilibrium (by maximizing overall prediction success) and another that assumed the invasion was ongoing (using a 95% threshold for true positives). The most conservative DS fitted the validation data most closely but could only predict 75% of the presence data. A more risk-taking DS could predict 95% of the presence data, which identified 8.5 times more area for surveillance, and better highlighted known populations that are still rapidly invading. This DS and TDM coupling was considered to be the most appropriate for our management application. Our results show that predictive niche modeling was highly sensitive to risk levels, but that these can be tailored to match specified management objectives. The methods implemented can be readily adapted to other invasive species or for conservation purposes.     

PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING FOR POLDER SYSTEM DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: An approach is developed for incorporating the uncertainty of parameters for estimating runoff in the design of polder systems in ungaged watersheds. Monte Carlo Simulation is used to derive a set of realizations of streamflow hydrographs for a given design rainstorm using the U. S. Soil Conservation Service (SCS) unit hydrograph model. The inverse of the SCS curve number, which is a function of the antecedent runoff condition in the SCS model, is the random input in the Monte Carlo Simulation. Monte Carlo realizations of streamfiow hydrographs are used to simulate the performance of a polder flood protection system. From this simulation the probability of occurrence of flood levels for a particular hydraulic design may be used to evaluate its effectiveness. This approach is demonstrated for the Pluit Polder flood protection system for the City of Jakarta, Indonesia. While the results of the application indicate that uncertainty in the antecedent runoff condition is important, the effects of uncertainty in rainfall data, in additional runoff parameters, such as time to peak, in the hydraulic design, and in the rainfall-runoff model selected should also be considered. Although, the SCS model is limited to agricultural conditions, the approach presented herein may be applied to other flood control systems if appropriate storm runoff models are selected.     

Using and comparing two nonparametric methods (CART and MARS) to model the potential distribution of gullies

Gully erosion represents an important soil degradation process in rangelands. In order to take preventive or control measures and to reduce its environmental damages and economical costs it is useful to localize the points in the landscape where gullying takes place and to determine the importance of the different factors involved. The study is carried out in Extremadura, southwest Spain. The main objectives of this work are: (a) comparing two nonparametric schemes to model the potential distribution of gullies, (b) evaluating the importance of the different factors involved in gullying processes, (c) analyzing the role of prevalence in the success of the model and finally, (d) implementing and mapping the results with the help of a Geographical Information System (GIS). Two methods were used to model the response of a dependent variable (gullying) from a set of independent variables: Classification And Regression Trees (CART) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). Three different datasets were used; the first one for constructing the model (training dataset) and the others for validating the model (external datasets). These datasets are formed by a target variable (presence or absence of gullies) and a set of independent variables. The dependent variable was obtained by mapping the locations of gullies with the help of a GPS and high resolution aerial ortophotographs. A set of 32 independent variables reflecting topography, lithology, soil type, climate, land use and vegetation cover of each area were used. The performance of the models was evaluated using a non-dependent threshold method: the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The results showed a better performance of MARS for predicting gullying with areas under the ROC curve of 0.98 and 0.97 for the validation datasets, while CART presented values of 0.96 and 0.66.     

超旱生植物沙冬青高温胁迫下的快速叶绿素荧光动力学特征

沙冬青Ammopiptanthus mongolicus是温带荒漠地区唯一的常绿阔叶灌木,由于其生长的沙漠中极端高温远高于其它地区,因此研究沙冬青对高温胁迫的响应特征对于解释植物的抗逆机理具有极为重要的意义.快速叶绿素荧光动力学可以在无损情况下探知叶片光合机构的热损伤程度,JIP-test方法将测量值转化为多种具有生物学意义的参数,因而被广泛应用于高温胁迫的有关研究中.对不同环境条件下快速叶绿素荧光诱导动力学曲线的分析可以深入了解植物光合机构对环境的适应机制.本文利用高频采样叶绿素荧光仪在野外下测定了沙冬青在不同温度处理下的荧光响应情况.研究结果表明,沙冬青耐热性在40～45℃;25℃、30℃及40℃时的F_V/F_M在O.80以上,光合反应正常.50℃时出现高温胁迫特征:1)F_V/F_M降低为0.73;2)OJIP曲线变形为OKJIP曲线,K点出现在300 ms左右,值为245.00;3)反应中心的活性下降,Q_A-的还原速率加快.这些变化是由于光合反应中的电子传递受阻引起的,而光合反应中心并没有被破坏,胁迫条件解除后,光合机构还可恢复,说明沙冬青具有极强耐热性.     

基于TASCC的典型农田溪流氨氮滞留及吸收动力学模拟

为揭示农田溪流氨氮滞留的动态变化性,选择NaCl为保守示踪剂、NH4Cl为添加营养盐开展野外瞬时投加示踪实验.在此基础上,采用TASCC方法和养分螺旋指标定量刻画 滞留动态,并以Michaelis-Menten模型(M-M方程)模拟 吸收动力学特性.结果表明:背景浓度的 吸收长度Sw-amb变化范围为93.94~295.54m,平均值为177.41m;质量传输系数Vf-amb变化范围为0.16~0.38mm/s,平均值为0.26mm/s;吸收速率Uamb变化范围为0.16~0.38mg/(m2×s),平均值为0.26mg/(m2×s).由M-M方程模拟得到的 最大吸收速率Umax为0.59~1.38mg/(m2×s),半饱和常数Km为1.10~5.03mg/L. 在从背景浓度到饱和浓度区间范围内展现出的Sw-add-dyn、Utot-dyn和Vf-tot-dyn动态变化性,验证了TASCC解析 滞留动态和吸收动力学特征的可行性和有效性.     

基于PSO优化逻辑斯蒂曲线的水资源安全评价模型

论文引入“压力-状态-响应”框架模型构建区域水资源安全定量评价的指标体系,采用逻辑斯蒂（Logistic）曲线模拟区域水资源安全评价,公式中的参数采用粒子群算法（PSO）进行优化,并用灵敏度分析的方法对公式进行了可靠性分析。优化好的Logistic指数公式用于安徽省16个地级市水资源安全评价,计算得到各地级市评价指数和相应的评价等级,并对压力层、状态层、响应层子系统进行分析。评价结果表明,基于粒子群算法优化的Logistic指数公式用于区域水资源安全评价,具有合理性和可行性,能为区域水资源规划与管理决策提供科学依据。     

土壤中铜和镍的不同毒性阈值间量化关系

污染物的剂量-效应关系是生态毒理学的重要基础。在剂量-效应关系中,EC₁₀ (10%有效抑制浓度) 是建立基于风险的环境质量基准值的基础,但有关污染物生态效应的研究报导中多数采用毒性阈值EC₅₀ (半数抑制浓度),如何将EC₅₀转化为EC₁₀是建立污染物环境质量基准急需解决的问题。利用log-logistic拟合了中国17种代表性土壤中大麦、西红柿、小白菜3种植物的铜和镍剂量—效应曲线,获得了不同土壤中铜、镍剂量—效应曲线中段的斜率(b值),并依据计量—效应曲线获得3种植物在不同土壤中的铜、镍EC₁₀和EC₅₀值。结果表明：铜和镍的剂量—效应曲线 b值受土壤性质显著影响,但不同物种间的变化较小,大麦、西红柿及小白菜的铜、镍剂量—效应曲线b值绝对值的平均值分别接近于6.0和7.0。利用来自中国土壤的毒理学数据建立的铜和镍EC₅₀和EC₁₀单因子量化模型能较为准确地通过铜和镍EC₅₀值预测其EC₁₀值,其量化模型的决定系数 分别为0.704和0.799,当分别考虑土壤pH和有机碳 (OC) 的影响时,铜和镍的EC₁₀量化模型的决定系数分别提高至0.730和0.885。土壤中铜、镍EC₁₀与EC₅₀量化关系的建立可为中国土壤中铜、镍的风险评价及相关标准的制定提供更多的数据基础。     

基于灰色理论的冻融混凝土本构方程研究

我国北方处于寒冷地带,低温和冻融循环作用是造成混凝土性能劣化的重要原因。由于混凝土单轴受压应力—应变全曲线反映了混凝土最基本的力学性能,因此研究冻融循环作用下混凝土的应力—应变全曲线十分重要。本文通过已有的冻融混凝土单轴压缩试验所得的应力—应变关系参数,基于灰色理论建立预测方程,以小样本数据为基础,预测其他冻融次数下的混凝土本构方程参数。再根据过镇海建议的混凝土本构曲线进行拟合,得到一系列不同冻融次数下的混凝土应力—应变全曲线。结果表明,本文所拟合出的冻融混凝土应力—应变全曲线跟实验曲线吻合较好,可以用于试验范围内任意冻融次数的混凝土应力—应变全曲线的研究。