Is there a Kuznets curve for cropland use? The evidence from international panel data

The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis assumes the nonlinear relationship between production and its environmental effects, suggesting that the negative effect of production on the natural environment is reversed at higher levels of development. In contrast to the majority of the studies, this paper considers the possibility of non-linear effects of per capita output on agricultural land use (cropland), as one of the natural resource stocks, and additionally examines the influence of demographic and productivity variables on the agricultural land use. The study draws on panel data from 143 economies over the 1990–2019 period and employs a series of panel econometrics techniques (including panel unit root and cointegration tests, panel ordinary least squares, generalized method of moments, and panel quantile models). The results unequivocally indicate the inverted U-shaped relationship between the GDP per capita and cropland use, as per EKC hypothesis. The results are robust with respect to employing different techniques, the identified turning points correspond to low and low-middle-income levels, and the effects of agricultural productivity and population density on land use are respectively negative and positive.     

COMPOSITE VS. DISTRIBUTED CURVE NUMBERS: EFFECTS ON ESTIMATES OF STORM RUNOFF DEPTHS1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Department of Agriculture Curve Number (CN) method is one of the most common and widely used techniques for estimating surface runoff and has been incorporated into a number of popular hydrologic models. The CN method has traditionally been applied using compositing techniques in which the area weighted average of all curve numbers is calculated for a watershed or a small number of sub-watersheds. CN compositing was originally developed as a time saving procedure, reducing the number of runoff calculations required. However, with the proliferation of high speed computers and geographic information systems, it is now feasible to use distributed CNs when applying the CN method. To determine the effect of using composited versus distributed CNs on runoff estimates, two simulations of idealized watersheds were developed to compare runoff depths using composite and distributed CNs. The results of these simulations were compared to the results of similar analyses performed on an urbanizing watershed located in central Indiana and show that runoff depth estimates using distributed CNs are as much as 100 percent higher than when composited CNs are used. Underestimation of runoff due to CN compositing is a result of the curvilinear relationship between CN and runoff depth and is most severe for wide CN ranges, low CN values, and low precipitation depths. For larger design storms, however, the difference in runoff computed using composite and distributed CNs is minimal.     

北京市环境政策评价研究

选取北京市 1985— 1999年环境经济数据 ,建立北京市经济增长与环境污染水平计量模型 ,为评价北京市环境政策提供依据。此实证研究得出两个重要结论 :北京市环境指标与人均GDP演替轨迹呈现显著的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征 ;但比发达国家较早实现了其环境库兹涅茨曲线转折点     

Societal risk acceptance criteria for gas distribution pipelines based on incident data from the United States

A significant number of pipeline operators use pipeline integrity management (PIM) to improve pipeline safety and reliability. Risk assessment is a critical step in PIM, because it determines the necessity of conducting the following steps in PIM for certain pipelines. Risk acceptance criteria are required in the process of risk assessment. Individual risk and societal risk are most frequently adopted as the two indicators of the risk acceptance criteria. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, quantitative societal risk acceptance criteria, especially for gas distribution pipelines, do not exit. The aim of this paper is to establish the societal risk acceptance criteria for gas distribution pipelines. Hence, FN curves were established using historical incident data from 2002 to 2017 provided by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). Linear regression and the ALARP principle are used in evaluating the limits of the negligible line and intolerable line to obtain a graphical societal risk acceptance criterion for gas distribution pipelines. A line having a slope of −1.224, and an anchor point of (1, 8.413 × 10⁻⁷) is proposed as the negligible line. Further, the intolerable line has a slope of −1.224, and an anchor point of (1, 2.524 × 10⁻⁶). Both the negligible risk and the intolerable risk for the gas distribution pipeline are lower than the current societal risk acceptance criteria for hazardous installations. The reasons for these relatively lower risk acceptance criteria are discussed.     

Application of continuous time random walk theory to nonequilibrium transport in soil

Continuous time random walk (CTRW) formulations have been demonstrated to provide a general and effective approach that quantifies the behavior of solute transport in heterogeneous media in field, laboratory, and numerical experiments. In this paper we first apply the CTRW approach to describe the sorbing solute transport in soils under chemical (or) and physical nonequilibrium conditions by curve-fitting. Results show that the theoretical solutions are in a good agreement with the experimental measurements. In case that CTRW parameters cannot be determined directly or easily, an alternative method is then proposed for estimating such parameters independently of the breakthrough curve data to be simulated. We conduct numerical experiments with artificial data sets generated by the HYDRUS-1D model for a wide range of pore water velocities (υ) and retardation factors (R) to investigate the relationship between CTRW parameters for a sorbing solute and these two quantities (υ, R) that can be directly measured in independent experiments. A series of best-fitting regression equations are then developed from the artificial data sets, which can be easily used as an estimation or prediction model to assess the transport of sorbing solutes under steady flow conditions through soil. Several literature data sets of pesticides are used to validate these relationships. The results show reasonable performance in most cases, thus indicating that our method could provide an alternative way to effectively predict sorbing solute transport in soils. While the regression relationships presented are obtained under certain flow and sorption conditions, the methodology of our study is general and may be extended to predict solute transport in soils under different flow and sorption conditions.     

涂铁多孔陶瓷对水中亚甲基蓝的动态吸附

研究了涂铁多孔陶瓷填料柱对水中亚甲基蓝（MB）的动态吸附性能。探讨了填料高度、MB初始质量浓度和流速对穿透曲线的影响;分别用BDST模型、Thomas模型和线性回归对动态吸附实验数据拟合,获得了相关参数,并研究了填料的再生性能。结果表明,涂铁多孔陶瓷（IOCPC）能有效去除水中MB,填料层升高,穿透曲线上的穿透点向右移动,穿透时间延长;而随流速、MB初始质量浓度的增大,穿透曲线上的穿透点向左移动,穿透时间缩短。用BDST模型能准确预测穿透时间,误差＜5%;用Thomas模型可较好地描述了MB浓度为10和50 mg/L、初速为2 mL/min时IOCPC对MB的吸附动力学,相关系数分别为0.99和0.93,平衡吸附容量分别为0.078和0.13 mg/g。对吸附饱和后的涂铁多孔陶瓷可用pH=3的硝酸再生,重复使用3次穿透曲线上的穿透点基本不变。     

湖南省环境质量演进的波动研究

环境库兹涅茨曲线是学术研究的热点问题，但是。对环境质量演进波动的研究还是空白。本文以湖南为例。运用计量分析及谱分析方法对湖南省环境质量演进中的波动性问题进行了尝试性实证研究。结果表明湖南环境质量的演进存在波动。且近年来各环境质量指标的波动有正向扩大的趋势；未来湖南环境质量周期波动亦将步入正向波动时期。因而。今后的发展可能会进一步加大对环境的压力。需要制定相应的环境政策来降低出现的大幅正向波动。     

剂量-效应关系两种置信区间的比较

毒性实验存在随机误差,同时剂量-效应曲线(DRC)拟合也会产生误差.因此,合理表征剂量-效应关系及其置信区间非常重要.本研究在剂量-效应曲线非线性拟合基础上,阐述了构建拟合函数置信区间(FCI)与实验观测置信区间(OCI)的基本原理.并以对氯苯酚及等效应浓度比混合物为例,说明目前多数文献使用的FCI不能有效地描述真实毒性实验的不确定度,提出以OCI表征DRC,以求真实反映观测毒性效应的不确定度.利用剂量加和与独立作用模型预测了混合物毒性,并与OCI比较,得到混合物毒性作用类型.建议在分析混合物协同、拮抗、独立与加和作用时,应充分考虑OCI.     

A correlation of the lower flammability limit for hybrid mixtures

Hybrid mixtures are widely encountered in industries such as coal mines, paint factories, pharmaceutical industries, or grain elevators. Hybrid mixtures explosions involving dust and gas can cause great loss of lives and properties. The lower flammability limit (LFL) is a critical parameter when conducting a hazard assessment or developing mitigation methods for processes involving hybrid mixtures. Unlike unitary dust or gas explosions, which have been widely studied in past decades, only minimal research focuses on hybrid mixtures, and data concerning hybrid mixtures can rarely be found. Although methods to predict the LFL have been developed by using either Le Chatelier's Law, which was initially proposed for homogeneous gas mixtures, or the Bartknecht curve, which was adopted for only certain hybrid mixtures, significant deviations still remain. A more accurate correlation to predict an LFL for a hybrid mixtures explosion is necessary for risk assessment. This work focuses on the study of hybrid mixtures explosions in a 36 L dust explosion apparatus including mixtures of methane/niacin, methane/cornstarch, ethane/niacin and ethylene/niacin in air. By utilizing basic characteristics of unitary dust or gas explosions, a new formula is proposed to improve the prediction of the LFL of the mixture. The new formula is consistent with Le Chatelier's Law.     

产业承接、经济增长与环境污染的关系——以甘肃省为例

为探索在经济相对落后且生态环境脆弱的地区,经济增长与环境改善发展路径的可行性,以甘肃省为分析样本,选取该省12个城市2006—2013年的面板数据,采用固定效应模型,分析产业承接、经济增长与环境污染的内在因果关系。结果表明:甘肃省的产业承接呈现出快速增长的趋势,其增速远高于经济增速和污染排放增速;产业承接不仅对经济增长有促进作用,而且对环境也具有改善作用;甘肃省的经济增长与环境污染的关系,短期呈正相关,长期则呈倒U型关系。因此,甘肃省在 来的发展中,应充分发挥产业承接的双重作用。