Strategic implications of counter-geoengineering: Clash or cooperation?

Solar geoengineering has received increasing attention as an option to temporarily stabilize global temperatures. A key concern is that heterogeneous preferences over the optimal amount of cooling combined with low deployment costs may allow the country with the strongest incentive for cooling, the so-called free-driver, to impose a substantial externality on the rest of the world. We analyze whether the threat of counter-geoengineering technologies capable of negating the climatic effects of solar geoengineering can overcome the free-driver problem and tilt the game in favour of international cooperation. Our game-theoretical model of countries with asymmetric preferences allows for a rigorous analysis of the strategic interaction surrounding solar geoengineering and counter-geoengineering. We find that counter-geoengineering prevents the free-driver outcome, but not always with benign effects. The presence of counter-geoengineering leads to either a climate clash where countries engage in a non-cooperative escalation of opposing climate interventions (negative welfare effect), a moratorium treaty where countries commit to abstain from either type of climate intervention (indeterminate welfare effect), or cooperative deployment of solar geoengineering (positive welfare effect). We show that the outcome depends crucially on the degree of asymmetry in temperature preferences between countries.     

CDC's research portfolio in older adult fall prevention: a review of progress, 1985-2005, and future research directions

PROBLEM: Falls are a leading cause of mortality and morbidity among adults age 65 and older. Population models predict steep increases in the 65 and older population bands in the next 10-15 years and in turn, public health is bracing for increased fall rates and the strain they place on health care systems and society. To assess progress in fall prevention, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conducted a research portfolio review to examine the quality, relevance, outcomes and successes of the CDC fall prevention program and its impact on public health. METHODS: A peer review panel was charged with reviewing 20 years of funded research and conducting a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis for extramural and intramural research activities. Information was collected from grantees (via a survey instrument), staff were interviewed, and progress reports and products were reviewed and analyzed. RESULTS: CDC has invested over $24,900,000 in fall-related research and programs over 20 years. The portfolio has had positive impacts on research, policies and programs, increasing the public health injury prevention workforce, and delivering effective fall prevention programs. DISCUSSION: Public health agencies, practitioners, and policy makers recognize that while there are some evidence-based older adult fall prevention interventions available, many remain unused or are infeasible to implement. Specific recommendations across the public health model, include: additional research in gathering robust epidemiologic data on trends and patterns of fall-related injuries at all levels; researching risk factors by setting or sub-population; developing and testing innovative interventions; and engaging in translation and dissemination research on best practices to increase uptake and adoption of fall prevention strategies. CDC has responded to a number of suggestions from the portfolio review including: funding translation research of a proven Tai Chi fall intervention; beginning to address gaps in gender, ethnic, and racial differences in falls; and collaborating with partner organizations who share in CDC's mission to improve public health by preventing falls and reducing fall-related injuries. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Industry has an opportunity to develop more accessible and usable devices to reduce injury from falls (for example, hip protectors and force reducing flooring). By implementing effective, evidence-based interventions to prevent falls and reduce injuries from falls, significant decreases in health care costs can be expected.     

Between war and peace: humanitarian assistance in violent urban settings

Cities are fast becoming new territories of violence. 1 The humanitarian consequences of many criminally violent urban settings are comparable to those of more traditional wars, yet despite the intensity of the needs, humanitarian aid to such settings is limited. The way in which humanitarian needs are typically defined, fails to address the problems of these contexts, the suffering they produce and the populations affected. Distinctions between formal armed conflicts, regulated by international humanitarian law, and other violent settings, as well as those between emergency and developmental assistance, can lead to the neglect of populations in distress. It can take a lot of time and effort to access vulnerable communities and implement programmes in urban settings, but experience shows that it is possible to provide humanitarian assistance with a significant focus on the direct and indirect health consequences of violence outside a traditional conflict setting. This paper considers the situation of Port‐au‐Prince (Haiti), Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) and Guatemala City (Guatemala).     

基于社会燃烧理论的突发公共卫生事件网络情绪传播模型

为有效引导和管控突发公共卫生事件网络舆情,考虑社会相关性和网络群体间情绪状态转移的不确定性,基于社会燃烧理论研究突发公共卫生事件网络情绪传播机制.首先基于社会燃烧理论分析网络用户群体的社会影响因素,建立未燃-阴燃-燃烧-抑燃-稳定(UDBFS)网络情绪传播模型和考虑干预措施的网络情绪传播模型;然后以新冠肺炎(COVID...     

地铁列车驾驶员不安全行为组合干预策略研究

为了减少或避免地铁运营安全事故的发生,提高对地铁列车驾驶员的综合管理水平,构建1种针对地铁列车驾驶员不安全行为的组合干预策略体系。基于不安全行为形成机理研究及问卷调查,采用系统动力学软件（Vensim PLE）针对地铁列车驾驶员不安全行为过程的“前-中-后”3个维度建立不安全行为组合干预模型,通过调节不同的干预策略探讨分析各种组合干预情况下不安全行为水平并验证仿真。研究结果表明:针对地铁列车驾驶员不安全行为发生前维度的干预策略效果相对最为显著,通过岗位胜任力及企业安全氛围建设等干预策略能有效降低不安全行为的发生水平,为地铁运营企业提高安全管理水平提供参考思路。     

Building work engagement: A systematic review and meta‐analysis investigating the effectiveness of work engagement interventions

Low work engagement may contribute towards decreased well‐being and work performance. Evaluating, boosting and sustaining work engagement are therefore of interest to many organisations. However, the evidence on which to base interventions has not yet been synthesised. A systematic review with meta‐analysis was conducted to assess the evidence for the effectiveness of work engagement interventions. A systematic literature search identified controlled workplace interventions employing a validated measure of work engagement. Most used the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale (UWES). Studies containing the relevant quantitative data underwent random‐effects meta‐analyses. Results were assessed for homogeneity, systematic sampling error, publication bias and quality. Twenty studies met the inclusion criteria and were categorised into four types of interventions: (i) personal resource building; (ii) job resource building; (iii) leadership training; and (iv) health promotion. The overall effect on work engagement was small, but positive, k = 14, Hedges g = 0.29, 95%‐CI = 0.12–0.46. Moderator analyses revealed a significant result for intervention style, with a medium to large effect for group interventions. Heterogeneity between the studies was high, and the success of implementation varied. More studies are needed, and researchers are encouraged to collaborate closely with organisations to design interventions appropriate to individual contexts and settings, and include evaluations of intervention implementation. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Organizational Behavior published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A comparative approach to assess drivers of success in mammalian conservation recovery programs

The outcomes of species recovery programs have been mixed; high‐profile population recoveries contrast with species‐level extinctions. Each conservation intervention has its own challenges, but to inform more effective management it is imperative to assess whether correlates of wider recovery program success or failure can be identified. To contribute to evidence‐based improvement of future conservation strategies, we conducted a global quantitative analysis of 48 mammalian recovery programs. We reviewed available scientific literature and conducted semistructured interviews with conservation professionals involved in different recovery programs to investigate ecological, management, and political factors associated with population recoveries or declines. Identifying and removing threats was significantly associated with increasing population trend and decreasing conservation dependence, emphasizing that populations are likely to continue to be compromised in the absence of effective threat mitigation and supporting the need for threat monitoring and adaptive management in response to new and potential threats. Lack of habitat and small population size were cited as limiting factors in 56% and 42% of recovery programs, respectively, and both were statistically associated with increased longer term dependence on conservation intervention, demonstrating the importance of increasing population numbers quickly and restoring and protecting habitat. Poor stakeholder coordination and management were also regularly cited by respondents as key weaknesses in recovery programs, indicating the importance of effective leadership and shared goals and management plans. Project outcomes were not influenced by biological or ecological variables such as body mass or habitat, which suggests that these insights into correlates of conservation success and failure are likely to be generalizable across mammals.     

安全心理与行为干预的研究

为了控制人的不安全行为,预防事故的发生,提出安全心理干预与行为干预方法。基于安全心理学的基础理论,提出调查干预法、安全心理咨询干预法、危机干预法、文化干预法等安全心理干预方法。基于人的行为模式,提出安全观察与行为干预法、安全行为流程干预法、正向行为支持干预法等安全行为干预方法。阐述不同干预方法的基本原理,比较分析各种方法的优缺点。安全心理干预的目的是预防不安全行为的出现,安全行为干预是预防事故发生的直接措施,通过采取安全心理与行为干预措施,可以控制事故的发生。在探讨不同干预方式的基础上对安全心理与行为干预方式的研究方向和应用前景进行展望。     

船员心理素质与航运安全探讨

船员长期生活在大海特殊的自然环境和船舶特殊的人造环境中,多种复杂因素交互作用,弱化了远洋船员心理素质,导致船员心理问题的频频出现。研究人员调查发现：将近80%的船舶事故是人为因素造成的,而人为因素引起的航运安全事故基本上是由船员良的心理素质导致的。通过对船员心理健康指标和典型案例分析,提出改变不良心理素质的措施和在航条件下的心理干预。     

Dealing with uncertainty: a case study of controlling insect populations in natural ecosystems

This paper analyses the political process for handling an outbreak of an insect causing human allergic reactions. In the southern part of the Swedish island Gotland in the Baltic Sea, an outbreak of the northern pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pinivora, has occurred. With regard to the human nuisance and long-term effects on the tourist industry, demands have been raised for intervention to reduce and control the insect population. At the same time, there have been warnings against treating the insect population because there are knowledge gaps concerning the wider ecological consequences, including effects on biodiversity. This paper analyses the political process and its problem-solving efforts. Of particular interest is how it dealt with the issue of uncertainty. It was found that the uncertainty associated with the issue hindered the development of a shared understanding of the problem and a possible solution. There seems to be a growing need in society to develop the institutional capacity to handle complex issues that cross different sectors, regulatory frameworks and policy targets.