人因失误的机理及其可靠性研究

随着科技的发展 ,在系统安全中 ,机器设备可靠性越来越高 ,由于人本身的复杂性 ,人因失误变得愈来愈严重。本文基于人行为的原理 ,对人因失误的机理、影响人失误的因素、人行为的模型和失误模型及其可靠性的量化进行了分析 ,建立了计算人可靠性的威布尔分布模型 ,并对其参数进行了讨论 ,可用此来评价人的可靠性。     

稀释倍数法的误差分析和色度检测仪的开发

稀释倍数法是目前废水色度检测中常用的方法,文章对该方法存在的误差进行了分析,并设计了一种新型色度检测仪,可以大大降低色度测定的误差,同时简化了操作过程。     

Ranking and selecting dangerous crash locations: correcting for the number of passengers and Bayesian ranking plots

INTRODUCTION: In this paper a sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate how big the impact would be on the current ranking of crash locations in Flanders (Belgium) when only taking into account the most serious injury per crash instead of all the injured occupants. RESULTS: Results show that this would lead to a different selection of 23.8% of the 800 sites that are currently considered as dangerous. CONCLUSIONS: Considering this impact quantity, the researchers want to sensitize government that giving weight to the severity of the crash can correct for the bias that occurs when the number of occupants of the vehicles are subject to coincidence. Additionally, probability plots are generated to provide policy makers with a scientific instrument with intuitive appeal to select dangerous road locations on a statistically sound basis. Impact on industry Considering the impact quantity of giving weight to the severity of the crash instead of to all the injured occupants of the vehicle on the ranking of crash sites, the authors want to sensitize government to carefully choose the criteria for ranking and selecting crash locations in order to achieve an enduring and successful traffic safety policy. Indeed, giving weight to the severity of the crash can correct for the bias that occurs when the number of occupants of the vehicles are subject to coincidence. However, it is up to the government to decide which priorities should be stressed in the traffic safety policy. Then, the appropriate weighting value combination can be chosen to rank and select the most dangerous crash locations. Additionally, the probability plots proposed in this paper can provide policy makers with a scientific instrument with intuitive appeal to select dangerous road locations on a statistically sound basis. Note that, in practice, one should not only rank the crash locations based on the benefits that can be achieved from tackling these locations. Future research is also needed to incorporate the costs of infrastructure measures and other actions that these crash sites require in order to enhance the safety on these locations. By balancing these costs and benefits against each other, the crash locations can then be ranked according to the order in which they should be prioritized.     

A framework for human error risk analysis of coal mine emergency evacuation in China

Evacuation from underground coal mine in emergency as soon as possible makes the difference between life and death. Human factors have an important impact on a successful evacuation, but literature review shows that there is a lack of consideration of human error risk during coal mine emergency evacuation in China. To address the above problems, in this paper, we established a framework for human error risk analysis of coal mine emergency evacuation, consisting of scenario and task analysis, risk assessment and risk reduction. A general evacuation procedure which is applicable for different causes is detailed through the scenario and task analysis. A new method based on expert judgment, named OGI-Model, is proposed to evaluate the reliability of human safety barrier. In this new approach, human safety barrier is divided into three sub-barriers, i.e., organization safety sub-barrier (OSSB), group safety sub-barrier (GSSB), and individual safety sub-barrier (ISSB). Each sub-barrier consists of a series of concrete measures against specific evacuation actions. An example is provided in this paper to demonstrate the use of this framework and its effectiveness.     

一种压力容器封头非接触式扫描测量方法及误差分析

封头参数检测是确保封头质量,消除压力容器安全隐患的重要措施。传统接触式 的封头检测方法存在着诸多问题,为此,提出一种利用激光非接触式扫描进行封头参数 检测的方法。该方法利用支撑杆将激光扫描检测装置定位于封头端面,通过距离检测与 电机的旋转扫描,完成封头形状参数的检测。介绍该方法原理、操作过程,分析该方法 的误差。最后,对该方法进行实际测试验证。结果表明,该方法可以进行封头形状参数 的准确测量,误差同理论分析相符。     

基于航空器高度保持性能的风险碰撞模型优化*

为提高Reich风险碰撞模型在“缩小垂直间隔”(Reduced Vertical Separation Minimum,RVSM)标准实施后的适用性。基于同一机型航空器的测高系统误差（Altimetry System Error,ASE）数据在超高空各高度层中并不服从相同分布且具有显著的统计学差异,针对现有的Reich模型对同一机型仍使用整个航空空域的ASE数值进行经验分布拟合的现状,对模型中ASE混合累积经验分布参数部分进行改进,添加高度层相关的参数,使原有仅根据机型进行累积的ASE经验分布细化为根据机型和高度层2部分进行累积。结果表明:改进后模型可准确体现ASE数据在不同高度层的差异性;采用改进的风险模型进行仿真计算,得到更加精确的结果;验证改进后模型的合理性和其在应用中的有效性。     

基于人类动力学的地震压埋人员先验在室率研究

破坏性地震发生后,科学、有效地评估地震压埋人员压埋情况,是有序地开展应急救援工作的基础。人员在室率作为压埋率评估模型的主要参数之一,目前主要以作息时间区为基础以省或市为基础单元进行计算,这难以体现基础单元之下的不同市或县人员在室率之间的差异性。为解决这一问题,采用人类动力学相关原理,运用极大似然法估算人员在室率,进而形成基于人类动力学的地震压埋人员压埋率预估模型。最后以汶川8.0级地震部分受灾学校为例,进行压埋率实际评估和模型误差分析。研究表明:提出的微观在室率能更准确地反映人员在室情况具有更好的适用性;在实际评估中模型精度达到±0.13,表明模型能达到较好的预估效果,能为震后应急救援工作提供一定的参考。     

Spatial error propagation when computing linear combinations of spectral bands: The case of vegetation indices

The collection of accurate and timely information on land use, crops, forest and vegetation are increasingly based on remote sensing spectral measurements produced by satellites. The most recent spacecrafts like the Earth Observing 1 (EO-1) produce a rich source of information being endowed with hyperspectral sensors that can provide up to 200 or more channels. In many instances such a multivariate signal has to be reduced to just one single value per pixel representing a particular characteristic of land. Linear combinations of bands are the general form of many indices. Since each individual image used to construct indices contains errors, when combined they produce a propagation of errors, a process that can distort a final output map. In this paper we measure the extent of error propagation when building linear vegetation indices. We consider three types of indices: the difference vegetation index (DVI), selected Kauth-Thomas indices (SBI, GVI and WET), and principal components, using benchmarking examples taken from the remote sensing literature. The main implication emerging from these examples is that the SBI and the first principal component are the indices more prone to error propagation. The formalization presented here allows a user to derive measures of error propagation in cases where technical characteristics of a sensor and physical characteristics of a landscape are known. These results can help a user to choose between alternative vegetation indices, and to associate a measure of reliability with such indices.     

双样图在质量控制考核中的应用

双样图可应用于实验室分析质量考核中，除了判断测定数据的质量外，也可以利用双样图来分析不同实验室或同一实验室不同分析人员测定数据误差大小及主要来源。应用双样图具有速度快、方便、效果好的特点，避免了实验室工作质量控制考核中，仅凭双样的保证值判断数据合格与否的单一性和不完全性。