The impact of urban planning on land use and land cover in Pudong of Shanghai,China

Functional zones in cities constitute the most conspicuous components of newly developed urban areas,and have been a hot spot for domestic and foreign investors in China,which not only show the expanse of urban space accompanied by the shifts both in landscape(from rural to urban)and land use(from less extensive to extensive),but also display the transformation of regional ecological functions.By using the theories and methods of landscape ecology,the structure of landscapes and landscape ecological planning can be analyzed and evaluated for studying the urban functional zones‘layout.In 1990,the Central Govermment of China declared to develop and open up Pudong New Area so as to promote economic development in Shanghai.Benefited from the advantages of Shanghai‘s location and economy,the government of Pudong New Area has successively built up 7 different functional zones over the past decade according to their functions and strategic goals.Based on the multi-spectral satellite imageries taken in 1990,1997and 2000,a landscape ecolgy analysis was carried out for Pudong New Area of Sanghai ,supported by GIS technology.Green space(including croplands )and built-up areas are the major factors considered in developing urban landscape.This paper was mainly concerned with the different spatial patterns and dynamics of green space,built-up areas and new buildings in different functional zones,as influenced by different spatial patterns and dynamics of green space,built-up areas and new buildings in different functional zones,as influenced by different functional layouts and development strategies.The rapid urbanization in Pudong New Area resulted in a more homogeneous landscape.Agricultural landscape and suburban landscape were gradually replaced by urban landscape as the degree of urbanization increased.As a consequence of urbanization in Pudong,not only built-up patches,but also newly-built patches and green patches merged into one large patch,which should be attributed to the construction policy of extensive green space as the urban development process in Pudong New Area.The shape of green area of 7 functional zones became more and more regular because of the horticultural needs in Shanghai urban planning.Some suggestions were finally made for the study of future urban planning and layout.     

Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

沈抚新城地下水中PAHs的污染特征及健康风险评价

为了保障浑河流域处于正在进行城镇化沈抚新城居民的生活用水安全,采集该地区49个地下水样品对16种US EPA优控的多环芳烃(PAHs)进行了分析,并对PAHs的污染水平、空间分布、来源与饮水健康风险进行了调查与评估.结果表明:49个采样点均有不同程度的PAHs检出,地下水中PAHs的浓度范围为(4.38~2 005.02 ng·L~(-1)),平均浓度值为(414.64±526.13) ng·L~(-1),与国内外其他地区地下水对比,处于较高污染水平.地下水中PAHs主要以3环和4环为主,其平均浓度分别为(190.93±238.96) ng·L~(-1)和(140.01±234.69) ng·L~(-1),两者占总PAHs含量的80%.枯水期的地下水中PAHs空间分布受土地利用类型影响较大,当表层土壤为耕地时,地下水PAHs浓度较大,而为林地时PAHs浓度较小.由主成分分析-多元线性回归结果得知,地下水中PAHs主要来源于汽油和天然气的不完全燃烧、煤炭燃烧、石油泄漏以及交通排放,其贡献率依次为36.26%、32.72%、28.17%和2.87%.不同人群通过饮用地下水暴露于PAHs的终生致癌风险ILCR值范围为5.55×10-10~5.65×10-6,其中13.60%的值处于10-6~10-4之间,具有潜在的癌症风险,需引起对地下水质量的关注.     

中国西部城镇化可持续发展路径的探讨

基于对中国西部地区城镇化进程的调研,本文探讨了西部地区城镇化可持续发展的路径,结合西部地区的现状与西部地区城镇发展的历史趋势,分析了中国西部地区城镇化发展的需求,阐析了其城镇化进程中的环境压力与阻力,提出了促进中国西部城镇化可持续发展的政策建议.目前,西部地区整体城镇化水平滞后,各省(区)间的城镇化发展水平极不均衡.而社会经济发展水平对于城镇化具有很大的促进作用,故未来相当一段时间内,西部地区社会经济发展是其区域城镇化进程的主要动力,同时西部地区尚处于城镇化与工业化发展的正相关期,工业化水平的提升对西部地区城镇化进程的推动作用不容小觑.城镇化进程的不断加快和工业化的快速推进过程中,西部地区本就脆弱的生态环境存在进一步遭受损失与破坏的威胁.这些将会导致西部地区生态环境状况的恶化转而成为其城市化的严重制约,给当地经济可持续发展造成一定程度的影响.据此,文中提出建议,未来西部城镇化建设过程中,应推行“二元”城镇化发展战略,增强中心城镇的辐射带动作用,培育中小城市和特色鲜明的小城镇;进一步完善西部城镇基础设施水平,以各级政府支持管理为先导和主导,尝试采用“公私营合作”(PPP)融资模式,重点推进交通及通讯设施建设;构建长期稳定的绿色城镇发展战略,推进城市绿色文化、建设绿色城市,筹措西部地区绿色城镇发展基金、发展城市绿色产业;立足功能分区并结合城镇化战略格局优化城镇化发展,依托国家主体功能区划优化城镇化发展格局,结合“两横三纵”城镇化战略格局推进城市群建设.     

陕西省产业结构演变的城市化响应地域差异分析

将产业结构演变的城市化响应系数作为衡量区域产业结构演变城市化响应强度的变量指标,运用变异系数和离差分析方法对陕西省产业结构演变的城市化响应进行类型划分,可划分为强响应区、中等响应区、弱响应区三种类型区;运用广义脉冲响应法对三种类型区分别进行产业结构演变城市化响应系数与各影响因素之间相关性的动态研究,探讨陕西省产业结构演变的城市化响应时至差异性。     

低纬高原地区城市化对室内外气温的影响

以低纬高原城市昆明市为研究对象,通过比较分析,得出以下结论昆明地区受全球气候变暖影响年平均气温约升高0.5℃/a左右;由于城市面积扩大导致昆明的室内外气温均升高,其中室内气温升高幅度大于室外气温,干季大于雨季;不论是干季还是雨季,城市增温效应与城市建成区面积、城市人口均有较好的相关关系.城市建成区面积增加对平均气温的影响较大;而城市人口增加对平均室内气温的影响较大.城市建成区面积每增加1km2,年平均室内气温将升高0.0054℃;年平均气温升高0.012℃.而城市人口增加1 万人,年平均室内气温升高0.0259℃;年平均气温升高0.0098℃.     

我国人口老龄化加速发展对城市化发展速度的影响

中国的城市化水平在过去的20余年里以年均超过一个百分点的速度提升,然而在城市化主要依靠人口乡城迁移推动的模式下,人口年龄结构老化对城市化发展的影响日渐显现。文章通过年龄移算法描述了乡城人口迁移流动的年龄模式,发现我国农村人口乡城迁移概率随年龄的分布呈现"中间大,两头小"的特征。然后,文章分析了此种年龄模式形成的原因,认为制度是影响乡城迁移年龄模式的决定性因素,制度变迁的缓慢性以及路径依赖决定了短期内我国人口乡城迁移年龄模式的稳定性。基于此,文章预测了人口老龄化对未来中国人口城市化发展的影响,得出的基本结论是,未来中国城市化发展的水平提高将进入一个相对平缓的时期,年度城市化水平的提升将显著低于过去一个时期,对未来10-20年中国城市化发展水平的预期未可过于乐观。针对这一结论,文章建议在未来的城市化过程中应完善社会融入机制和提升城市化质量。     

湖北省城镇化地域差异的实证研究

为阐明湖北省城镇化水平的空间差异程度，引入城镇化不平衡指数这一指标进行分析。研究表明湖北省城镇化的地域差异与各地的发展条件是基本相适应的，并针对其城镇建设提出相关建议；湖北省城镇建设应寻求相对均衡；应壮大完善区域性中心城市。增强其经济能力和辐射能力。     

都市圈化:一种新型的中国城市化战略

在我国城市化的理论和实践基础上。提出了一个可持续的城市化模式——都市圈化。并对其内涵和外延进行归纳，进而将中国三大都市圈与日本的都市圈进行比较。结论是：中国沿海地区的都市圈化。既适应世界潮流，又符合中国国情。还能实现国家和区域的人口-经济-生态的平衡。都市圈化的推行。将在中国沿海地区形成以三大都市圈为核心的长达数千公里的人口高度聚集的沿海城镇密集地区。成为新时期我国国家竞争战略的支撑点。并将在一定程度上消弭城乡之闻、沿海与内地之闻的体制鸿沟和贫富鸿沟。     

Specific Features of the Dynamics of Murine Rodent Communities under the Effects of Urbanization: 2. Maintenance of Population Size

The reproduction dynamics of nonsynanthropic rodents living in urbanized areas was compared with that of rodents from natural communities. The number of females in a community and the number of embryos and placental spots per female were estimated. The mechanisms providing for the maintenance of population size were different in different habitats. In particular, the urban communities of murine rodents proved to have a higher reproductive potential.