STATE VARIABLE MODEL FOR URBAN RAINFALL-RUNOFF PROCESS1

ABSTRACT: A nonlinear hydrologic system model has been developed for analyzing the urban rainfall-runoff process. The model is formulated as a state variable model consisting of several parameters. A search technique is employed to find the set of parameters for which the model's response best fits observed data. The model could be used in either a simulation or forecasting mode. The model is applied to observed data for the Waller Creek Watershed in Austin, Texas, to develop the model parameters for various levels of urbanization of the watershed. The trend of each parameter with respect to levels of urbanization is examined.     

AN IMPLICIT APPROACH TO PRICING AGRICULTURAL WATER TRANSFERS TO URBAN USES1

ABSTRACT: The increased agricultural efficiency of the American farmer has been a substantial impetus to this nation's rapid urbanization. In many western regions where total water supplies are limited, urbanization has required the transfer of heretofore agricultural water rights to the urban use. A major problem in such transfers has been the value or price of the water. A management level model of a typical urban water system was developed to optimize water supply, distribution, and wastewater treatment alternatives. The values of agricultural transfers were determined as the cost advantages of increasing allowable reuse levels of urban effluents which imply the use of a downstream right. This procedure is justified by the economic theory of alternative cost. Results for a test application to the Denver, Colorado area indicate values on the order of $1,000 per acre-foot of transferable water depending on effluent water quality restrictions and operational policies.     

PREDICTING INFLUENCES OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT ON THERMAL HABITAT IN A WARM WATER STREAM1

ABSTRACT: Watershed and aquatic ecosystem management requires methods to predict and understand thermal impacts on stream habitat from urbanization. This study evaluates thermal effects of projected urbanization using a modeling framework and considers the biological implications to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) to assess changes in stream thermal habitat under altered stream‐ flow, shade, and channel width associated with low, medium, and high density urban developments in the Back Creek watershed (Roanoke County, Virginia). Flow alteration by the high density development scenario alone caused minimal heating of mean daily summer base flow (mean +0.1°C). However, when flow changes were modeled concurrently with reduced shade and increased channel width, mean daily temperature increased 1°C. Maximum daily temperatures exceeding the state standard (31°C) increased from 1.1 to 7.6 percent of the time using summer 2000 climatic conditions. Model results suggest that additional urban development will alter stream temperature, potentially limiting thermal habitat and shifting the fish community structure from intolerant to tolerant fish species in Back Creek. More research is needed on the sub‐lethal or chronic effects of increased stream temperature regimes on fish, particularly for those species already living in habitats near their upper limits.     

BEDROCK CONTROLS ON STREAM CHANNEL ENLARGEMENT WITH URBANIZATION,NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS1

Loss due to channel erosion in the Dallas, Texas, area is estimated to approach one-half million dollars in the last several years. Hydrogeomorphic analysis of natural and urban chalk and shale watersheds was performed in the central Texas area on watersheds ranging in size from 0.5 to 10 square miles in an effort to more adequately predict channel enlargement due to urbanization. Chalk watersheds were found to have greater drainage density, greater channel slope, lower sinuosity, and greater discharge per unit area than similar sized shale watersheds under natural conditions. With subsequent urbanization of the watersheds, chalk channel enlargement was from 12 to 67 percent greater than shale channel enlargement for similar sized watersheds. Greater enlargement in chalk channels is attributed to greater channel velocities and unit tractive force. Vegetation seems to play a significant role in influencing channel adjustments to the new flow regimes brought on by urbanization. Channel response to urbanization is documented and specific nonstructural guidelines are proposed which could reduce structural loss along urban stream channels.     

GIS BASED LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EVALUATION FOR WATERSHED URBANIZATION1

ABSTRACT: To adequately manage impacts of ongoing or future land use changes in a watershed, the magnitude of their hydrologic impacts needs to be assessed. A grid based daily streamflow model was calibrated with two years of observed streamflow data, using time periods when land use data are available and verified by comparison of model predictions with observed streamflow data. Streamflow data were separated into direct runoff and baseflow to estimate the impacts of urbanization on each hydrologic component. Analysis of the ratio between direct runoff and total runoff from 30 years of simulation results and the change in these ratios with urbanization shows that estimated annual direct runoff increased from 49.2 percent (1973) to 63.1 percent (1984) and 65.0 percent (1991), indicating the effects of urbanization are greater on direct runoff than on total runoff. The direct runoff ratio also varies with annual rainfall, with dry year ratios larger than those for wet years. This suggests that the impact of urbanization on areas that are sensitive to runoff ratios, such as stream ecosystems, might be more serious during drier years than in wetter years in terms of water quality and water yield. This indicates that sustainable base‐flow is important to maintaining sound stream ecosystems.     

关中平原城市群城镇化质量时空演变及提升策略研究

从城镇发展度、城镇宜居度、城乡协调度和城镇发展效率4个维度综合评估了2005—2019年关中平原城市群城镇化质量。结果表明:①关中平原城市群城镇化质量呈快速上升趋势,但整体质量依然处于较低水平。②城镇发展系统和城镇宜居系统是关中平原城市群城镇化质量提升的重要维度,城镇发展效率和城乡协调度是城镇化质量提升的短板,经济城镇化和社会城镇化质量快速发展是城镇化质量提升的重要动力,城乡协调度是城镇化质量提升的关键维度。③研究后期关中平原城市群各城市城镇化质量差异明显缩小,城市之间的关联性增强,核心城市辐射带动作用日益凸显。     

长株潭城市群经济社会发展与环境压力

长株潭城市群是湖南省的核心增长极,是"资源节约型社会、环境友好型社会"社会建设综合配套改革试验区,但伴随高速的工业化发展和城市化进程,长株潭面临着严峻的资源约束和环境压力。文章从土地利用格局、经济社会发展、环境质量状况、主要污染物排放和资源能源利用等方面入手,综合分析了长株潭城市群的环境压力,主要体现在长株潭城市群城市化与土地需求的矛盾凸显,"摊大饼"的扩张模式带来生态风险;重工业和污染排放集聚,累积性污染突出;环境空气质量和地表水环境质量形势不容乐观;资源能源利用方式粗放等。结合城市群区域规划,提出了长株潭城市群在新型城镇化建设中应采取的生态环境保护措施建议。     

长江中游城市群人口分布与城镇化格局及其演化特征

城市群日益成为我国人口集聚和城镇化发展的重要载体,2015年4月《长江中游城市群发展规划》的提出标志着长江中游城市群建设正式上升为国家发展战略。基于2014年长江中游城市群人口和城镇化格局现状分析,采用湘鄂赣3省第四、五、六次人口普查数据,分析了1990~2010年长江中游城市群人口与城镇化格局的空间变化。研究发现:(1)1990~2010年,长江中游城市群人口分布不均衡,武汉、长沙、南昌3大省会城市一直是人口的主要集中地,人口集聚水平不断提升,但城市群整体的人口集聚水平有所下降,人口分布的空间格局呈现出由单核心结构向多核心结构的发展趋势;(2)人口"镇"化是长江中游城市群城镇化发展的主要驱动力,城镇化水平经历了由以长江为界北高南低分布向沿长江、京九和浙赣沿线地区分布的发展过程,形成了多核心结构的城镇化格局;(3)对比人口分布与城镇化格局的演变过程,反映出人口集聚度对城镇化格局的形成有着重要影响,但区域城镇化同时受到经济发展水平、工业化水平、基础设施等多种因素影响,其格局变化更加复杂、显著。     

中部3省城市建设用地功能时空演化特征

定量识别区域城市建设用地功能演化特征与模式,是推进可持续城市建设用地开发利用与管理、助力新型城镇化等国家战略的重要基础。从人口承载、生产与消费、公共服务3个方面构建了城市建设用地功能评价指标体系与模型,以地级市为研究单元探究了2000~2014年期间我国中部3省多尺度城市建设用地功能演化特征与模式。研究结果表明:(1)中部3省城市建设用地人口承载、生产与消费、公共服务和综合功能总体呈改善趋势,但演化过程复杂;(2)不同尺度尤其是城市群地区城市建设用地功能演化特征差异明显。沿长江和城市群地区城市建设用地功能演化强度高,但城市群地区空间异质性较强;(3)城市建设用地功能演化以复合型演化模式为主,演化格局复杂。其中,城市建设用地人口承载功能演化模式类型最多,且局部地区呈衰退型演化格局;城市建设用地生产与消费、公共服务功能和综合功能演化模式类型相对较少,且大多集中连片分布,武汉城市建设用地综合功能加速改善型演化特征显著。如何深入探究城市建设用地功能演化模式形成机理,并系统制定多级城市建设用地可持续利用管理策略,是实现我国新型城镇化和"美丽中国梦"等战略的重要任务。     

长江经济带土地城镇化时空格局及其驱动力研究

研究长江经济带土地城镇化时空格局演变及驱动因素,对长江经济带新型城镇化建设具有重要的理论及实践意义。测度了1994~2014年长江经济带121个地级市土地城镇化水平,并利用探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA)探究其时空格局演变特征,最后运用偏最小二乘回归分析模型(PLS)探讨了土地城镇化空间格局差异形成的主要驱动因素。研究结果表明:时序演变上,长江经济带土地城镇化水平总体上呈现不断上升的趋势,并表现出阶段性变化特征;空间演化上,长江经济带土地城镇化水平空间差异明显,主要表现为:空间自关联性显著,且土地城镇化热点区域作为极化的核心,集聚趋势由东北向西南方向逐渐递减;长江经济带土地城镇化水平时空差异受到经济发展水平、产业结构升级、人口规模、固定资产投资和区位条件等因素的共同作用影响。