基于Holt-Winters模型的济南泉域地下水资源保护研究

以济南名泉趵突泉历年的地下水位为研究对象,对2012年5月至2017年11月趵突泉地下水位波动规律进行分析,评价保泉形势,探索保泉供水的有效措施。通过模型的比选,最终确定利用HoltWinters指数平滑加法模型,从时间序列的角度分析预测趵突泉地下水位的变化趋势,并计算出了模型的拟合优度指标和拟合统计量。决定系数R2值为0.897,平稳的R2值为0.627,数值均较大且其余各项拟合优度指标均较好,说明模型的拟合效果整体精度较高。利用模型对2018年趵突泉的地下水位进行了预测并给出了预测值95%的置信区间,预测年平均水位为27.814 m,泉水位波动的峰值为28.291 m、谷值为27.329 m且谷值将出现于2018年的6月份,为近6年来的最低水位值,低于27.6 m的保泉红色警戒线,接近27.01 m的泉水停喷线。预测结果表明:2018年趵突泉将存在潜在停喷的危机,济南市的保泉任务依然严峻。为争取泉水持续喷涌,在此基础上提出了科学保泉建议和节水保泉措施,为济南市评判、预测、调整水系及地下水开采布局提供科学依据。     

Secondary succession on a high salt marsh at different grazing intensities

Succession occurs on a large part of German salt marshes following abandonment or reduction of grazing. Its speed and effect on the biodiversity of salt marshes has been discussed in the literature. Permanent plot studies show site-dependent differences in successional outcome. If grazing is to be continued, there is uncertainty about the stocking rates that are optimal for the conservation of plant diversity. We present an eight year permanent plot study with different grazing treatments on a high salt marsh at the marsh island of Hallig Langeness, Germany, which is enclosed by a summer dike. The study site is owned by WWF. Successional outcomes on the permanent plots depend on grazing intensity and depth of the groundwater table which is correlated with soil salinity. Intermediate stocking rates support a mixture of halophytes and glycophytes, the relative proportion of which depends on the depth of the groundwater table. Cattle grazing at stocking rates of 0.6 livestock units per ha were found to be optimal for plant diversity conservation. At sites with deeper groundwater tables and no grazing, dominantElymus spp. stands develop and diversity is strongly reduced. If the groundwater table is high, succession following grazing abandonment is retarded and small halophytes prevail.     

Time Series Analysis to Monitor and Assess Water Resources: A Moving Average Approach

An understanding of the behavior of the groundwater body and its long-term trends are essential for making any management decision in a given watershed. Geostatistical methods can effectively be used to derive the long-term trends of the groundwater body. Here an attempt has been made to find out the long-term trends of the water table fluctuations of a river basin through a time series approach. The method was found to be useful for demarcating the zones of discharge and of recharge of an aquifer. The recharge of the aquifer is attributed to the return flow from applied irrigation. In the study area, farmers mainly depend on borewells for water and water is pumped from the deep aquifer indiscriminately. The recharge of the shallow aquifer implies excessive pumping of the deep aquifer. Necessary steps have to be taken immediately at appropriate levels to control the irrational pumping of deep aquifer groundwater, which is needed as a future water source. The study emphasizes the use of geostatistics for the better management of water resources and sustainable development of the area.     

Water Environmental Degradation of the Heihe River Basin in Arid Northwestern China

Water environmental degradation is a major issue in the Heihe River Basin belonging to the inland river basin of temperate arid zone in northwestern China. Mankind’s activities, such as dense population and heavy dependence on irrigated agriculture, place immense pressure on available and limited water resources during the last century, especially the recent five decades. An investigation on the water environmental degradation in the Heihe River Basin and analysis of its causation were conducted. The results indicated that water environmental changes in the whole basin were tremendous mostly in the middle reaches, which reflected in surface water runoff change, decline of groundwater table and degeneration of surface water and groundwater quality. Some new forms of management based on traditional and scientific knowledge must be introduced to solve problems of water environmental degradation in the Heihe River Basin.     

地铁隧道地震动力响应模拟试验研究

为研究地震荷载作用下隧道结构的动力响应,以指导隧道修建施工和衬砌支护,提高地铁隧道的整体抗震能力,采用理论分析、数值模拟和室内试验相结合的方法,对地铁隧道地震动力响应进行研究。选取沈阳地铁2号线某段隧道为工程背景,在理论分析地铁隧道地震动力响应的前提下,运用FLAC~(3D)数值软件模拟地铁隧道地震动力响应情况,地铁隧道两帮壁正负45°区域剪应力、主应力和位移最显著,监测点加速度变化趋势与输入地震波加速度时程曲线较为一致。在室内振动台试验中,地基土体表面峰值加速度明显比地基土体深部大,隧道两帮壁正负45°位置附近应变最大,振动停止后应变并未归零。数值模拟与室内试验研究结果较为吻合表明,由于人工波的地震烈度较现场波大,地铁隧道的地震扰动强烈;地铁隧道两帮壁正负45°区域地震动力响应剧烈,极易发生破坏。可根据这一现象有针对性地采取抗震措施,保证地铁隧道的安全、稳定。     

Effects of Harvest of Nontimber Forest Products and Ecological Differences between Sites on the Demography of African Mahogany

Abstract: The demographic impacts of harvesting nontimber forest products (NTFP) have been increasingly studied because of reports of potentially unsustainable harvest. Nevertheless, our understanding of how plant demographic response to harvest is altered by variation in ecological conditions, which is critical for developing realistic sustainable‐use plans, is limited. We built matrix population models to test whether and how variation in ecological conditions affects population responses to harvest. In particular, we examined the effect of bark and foliage harvest on the demography of populations of African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis) in two contrasting ecological regions of Benin, West Africa. K. senegalensis bark and foliage harvest significantly reduced its stochastic population growth rates, but ecological differences between regions had a greater effect on population growth rates than did harvest. The effect of harvest on population growth rates (Δλ) was slightly stronger in the moist than in the drier region. Life‐table response experiments revealed that the mechanism by which harvesting reduced λ differed between ecological regions. Lowered stasis (persistence) of larger life stages lead to a reduction in λ in the drier region, whereas lowered growth of all life stages lowered λ in moist region. Potential strategies to increase population growth rates should include decreasing the proportion of individuals harvested, promoting harvester‐owned plantations of African mahogany, and increasing survival and growth by promoting no‐fire zones in gallery forests. Our results show how population responses to harvest of NTFP may be altered by ecological differences across sites and emphasize the importance of monitoring populations over the climatic range in which they occur to develop more realistic recommendations for conservation.     

物质投入产出表在义马市物质流分析中的应用

结合义马市的社会经济系统,构建了基于三维物质投入产出表(PIOT)的物质流核算模型.从不同层次对该市的社会经济系统进行分析.结构分析表明,经济发展严重依赖本地资源,产业链短,经济结构层次较低,行业关联度低.电力行业和煤炭采掘业为控制资源、污染的关键部门.技术水平分析表明,技术水平低、循环利用率相对较低,使得资源投入、污染排放量大.宏观比较分析表明,人均物质流、物质流强度都较高,物质使用效率低下.要提高该市的资源使用效率、降低污染排放,可通过结构调整、提高技术水平及循环利用率等途径实现.     

Age at first marriage and its relation to fertility in Bangladesh

The 2007 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey(BDHS)data are exploited to examine the effects of socioeconomic and demographic factors on age at first marriage linkage to reproductive behavior of Bangladeshi women.The mean age at first marriage of women is found to be 15.48 years.Multivariate logistic regression technique shows that place of residence,religion,region,wealth index,education,and occupation are significantly important factors for determining age at first marriage.The relationship between marriage and fertility suggests that women who marry at a younger age produce more children than women who marry late.Findings of this study show that if the age at first marriage of adolescents is increased by 1 year,the age at first birth is postponed by 0.728 years.With the increase in age at first marriage,the fecundability of women sharply rises,whereas the proportion of temporary sterility decreases.Although there is a positive association between age at first marriage and age-specific marital fertility rates,the total parity per woman at the end of the reproductive period is expected to reduce by 0.196 for each 1-year delayed marriage.     

Demographic Effects of Harvesting Epiphytic Bromeliads and an Alternative Approach to Collection

Abstract: Hundreds of epiphytic bromeliads species are harvested from the wild for trade and for cultural uses, but little is known about the effects of this harvest. We assessed the potential demographic effects of harvesting from the wild on 2 epiphytic bromeliads: Tillandsia macdougallii, an atmospheric bromeliad (adsorbs water and nutrients directly from the atmosphere), and T. violaceae, a tank bromeliad (accumulates water and organic material between its leaves). We also examined an alternative to harvesting bromeliads from trees—the collection of fallen bromeliads from the forest floor. We censused populations of T. macdougallii each year from 2005 to 2010 and of T. violaceae from 2005 to 2008, in Oaxaca, Mexico. We also measured monthly fall rates of bromeliads over 1 year and monitored the survival of fallen bromeliads on the forest floor. The tank bromeliad had significantly higher rates of survival, reproduction, and stochastic population growth rates (λ_s) than the atmospheric bromeliad, but λ_s for both species were <1, which suggests that the populations will decline even without harvest. Elasticity patterns differed between species, but in both, survival of large individuals had high elasticity values. No fallen bromeliads survived more than 1.5 years on the forest floor and the rate of bromeliad fall was comparable to current harvest rates. Low rates of population growth recorded for the species we studied and other epiphytic bromeliads and high elasticity values for the vital rates that were most affected by harvest suggest that commercial harvesting in the wild of these species is not sustainable. We propose the collection of fallen bromeliads as an ecologically and, potentially, economically viable alternative.     

Review of Recent Ecotoxicological Studies on Cladocerans

Cladocerans have been widely used as the bioassay organisms in evaluating the impact of different toxic substances. Literature survey during the last 10 years revealed that cladoceran ecotoxicological research has been in an exponential phase constituting nearly 10% of publications on this group. Many studies have considered typically planktonic taxa such as Daphnia magna, D. pulex, Moina macrocopa, M. micrura and Ceriodaphania dubia. Experimental data on toxicity tests, to a lesser extent, are also available for littoral-benthic genera such as Simocephalus, Macrothrix and Alona. Most toxicity tests are limited to the derivation of median lethal concentrations of various durations but mostly at 24 or 48 h. Studies related to the evaluation of changes in the life history variables of cladocerans as a result of sublethal exposure to toxic substances are not many, but gaining importance. The common toxic substances used in the cladoceran toxicity tests appear to be heavy metals, pesticides and a few natural toxins such as cyanotoxins. We review here the effect of different toxic substances on cladocerans based on both the field and the laboratory studies from an ecotoxicology point of view. Suggestions for the future cladoceran ecotoxicology are also commented on.