Addressing Data Deficiency in Classifying Extinction Risk: a Case Study of a Radiation of Bignoniaceae from Madagascar

Abstract:  Of the roughly 12,000 known plant species in Madagascar, only 3% are found in the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List of Threatened Species. We assigned preliminary IUCN categories of threat to the species of a comparatively well-known tribe, Coleeae (Bignoniaceae), which comprises an endemic, species-rich radiation in Madagascar. Because the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria 3.1 discourage the use of the data-deficient category, we developed a novel method for differentiating between range-limited species and poorly sampled species. We used the Missouri Botanical Garden (MBG) gazetteer to determine where other collection efforts had taken place. We drew buffers around each Coleeae locality and determined how many times the surrounding area had been visited since the last sighting of the specimens by intersecting the buffers with all known botanical localities from the MBG gazetteer. We determined that at least 54% of the Coleeae species are threatened with extinction. Assignments of species to this category were often due to predicted future decline within their current area of occupancy and their lack of inclusion within the protected-area network (only 42% of species are known to occur in protected areas). Three species were presumed extinct, and an additional 12 have not been seen in decades. Among the species threatened with extinction, we "rescued" six of them from the data-deficient category by considering both the sample dates and localities of places where they occurred in relation to additional collections that took place in the immediate area. Due to their recent discovery, 15 species remained in the data-deficient category. If Coleeae is representative of the Malagasy flora, or at least of other endemic-radiated plant groups, then species loss in Madagascar may be even more extreme than is realized.     

Utilization of red mud as catalyst in conversion of waste oil and waste plastics to fuel

The aim of this study was to investigate the possibilities of using a by-product (red mud) from alumina production as a catalyst for recovery of waste. The conversion of waste mineral oil (WMO) and waste mineral oil/municipal waste plastic (WMO/MWP) blends over red mud (RM), a commercial hydrocracking catalyst (silica–alumina), and a commercial hydrotreating catalyst (Ni–Mo/alumina) to fuel has been studied. The effect of the catalyst and the temperature on the product distribution (gas, liquid, and wax) and the properties of liquid products were investigated. In the case of hydrotreatment of WMO, the liquids obtained over RM at both 400° and 425°C had larger amounts of low-boiling hydrocarbons than that of thermal or catalytic treatment with hydrotreating catalyst. Gas chromatography and nuclear magnetic resonance analysis of the liquid products showed that RM had hydrogenation and cracking activity in hydrotreatment of WMO. In coprocessing of WMO with municipal waste plastics, temperature had an important effect as well as the amount of MWP in the blend and the catalyst type. The hydrocracking at 400°C produced no liquid product. In hydrocracking at 425°C, the product distribution varied with catalyst type and MWP amount. The commercial hydrocracking catalyst had more cracking ability in the conversion of WMO/MWP to liquid and gas fuel than RM. In the case of hydrocracking over RM, the largest amount of liquid having satisfactory quality was obtained only from the blend containing 20% MWP.     

Trend in the Status of Breeding Bird Fauna in British Columbia, Canada, Based on the IUCN Red List Index Method

Abstract:  The World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List Index (RLI) is used to measure global trends in the status of biodiversity. We examined how the index might be used to measure the trend in the status of indigenous breeding birds in British Columbia between 1992 and 2006. We followed the RLI method described by Butchart et al. (2004, 2007) as closely as possible . Because IUCN Red List assessments at the regional level are not available in British Columbia, we used NatureServe S (subnational) ranking data. We calculated three index trend lines. The first two of these allowed us to compare an index based on our original data to one based on data that had been retrospectively corrected; the latter produced a smooth, flat line. A third trend line, based on the corrected data but excluding species new to province since 1947, produced a gently sloping downward trend. Ongoing immigration of bird species in and out of British Columbia added to the complexity of interpreting our regional RLI-type index, especially because our S-rank data did not incorporate transboundary "rescue" effects. Because the RLI is scaled so that the maximum value is based on a state in which all species are simultaneously ranked as least concern, it may exaggerate the highest potential status of intrinsically vulnerable species. A simpler, more intuitive graphic allows reporting that is less dependent on context. We believe the RLI approach holds useful innovation for an indicator of change in biodiversity within jurisdictional boundaries.     

Geographic range size and extinction risk assessment in nomadic species

Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to‐and‐fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid‐zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation planning.     

The difference conservation makes to extinction risk of the world's ungulates

Previous studies show that conservation actions have prevented extinctions, recovered populations, and reduced declining trends in global biodiversity. However, all studies to date have substantially underestimated the difference conservation action makes because they failed to account fully for what would have happened in the absence thereof. We undertook a scenario‐based thought experiment to better quantify the effect conservation actions have had on the extinction risk of the world's 235 recognized ungulate species. We did so by comparing species’ observed conservation status in 2008 with their estimated status under counterfactual scenarios in which conservation efforts ceased in 1996. We estimated that without conservation at least 148 species would have deteriorated by one International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List category, including 6 species that now would be listed as extinct or extinct in the wild. The overall decline in the conservation status of ungulates would have been nearly 8 times worse than observed. This trend would have been greater still if not for conservation on private lands. While some species have benefited from highly targeted interventions, such as reintroduction, most benefited collaterally from conservation such as habitat protection. We found that the difference conservation action makes to the conservation status of the world's ungulate species is likely to be higher than previously estimated. Increased, and sustained, investment could help achieve further improvements.     

The effectiveness of forecast-based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia

This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017–18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short- and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.     

Presence–Absence versus Abundance Data for Monitoring Threatened Species

Abstract:  Effective detection of population trend is crucial for managing threatened species. Little theory exists, however, to assist managers in choosing the most cost-effective monitoring techniques for diagnosing trend. We present a framework for determining the optimal monitoring strategy by simulating a manager collecting data on a declining species, the Chestnut-rumped Hylacola ( Hylacola pyrrhopygia parkeri ), to determine whether the species should be listed under the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List. We compared the efficiencies of two strategies for detecting trend, abundance, and presence–absence surveys, under financial constraints. One might expect the abundance surveys to be superior under all circumstances because more information is collected at each site. Nevertheless, the presence–absence data can be collected at more sites because the surveyor is not obliged to spend a fixed amount of time at each site. The optimal strategy for monitoring was very dependent on the budget available. Under some circumstances, presence–absence surveys outperformed abundance surveys for diagnosing the IUCN Red List categories cost-effectively. Abundance surveys were best if the species was expected to be recorded more than 16 times/year; otherwise, presence–absence surveys were best. The relationship between the strategies we investigated is likely to be relevant for many comparisons of presence–absence or abundance data. Managers of any cryptic or low-density species who hope to maximize their success of estimating trend should find an application for our results.     

Differences in nitrous oxide fluxes from red soil under different land uses in mid-subtropical China

Red soil may play an important role in nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions due to its recent land use change pattern. To predict the land use change effect on N₂O emissions, we examined the relationship between soil N₂O flux and environmental determinants in four different types of land uses in subtropical red soil. During two years of study (January 2005-January 2007), biweekly N₂O fluxes were measured from 09:00 to 11:00 a.m. using static closed chamber method. Objectives were to estimate the seasonal and annual N₂O flux differences from land use change and, reveal the controlling factors of soil N₂O emission by studying the relationship of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), microbial biomass carbon (MBC), water filled pore space (WFPS) and soil temperature with soil N₂O flux. Nitrous oxide fluxes were significantly higher in hot-humid season than in the cool-dry season. Significant differences in soil N₂O fluxes were observed among four land uses; 2.9, 1.9 and 1.7 times increased N₂O emissions were observed after conventional land use conversion from woodland to paddy, orchard and upland, respectively. The mean annual budgets of N₂O emission were 0.71-2.21 kg N₂O-N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ from four land use types. The differences were partly attributed to increased fertilizer use in agriculture land uses. In all land uses, N₂O fluxes were positively related to soil temperature and DOC accounting for 22-48% and 30-46% of the seasonal N₂O flux variability, respectively. Nitrous oxide fluxes did significantly correlate with WFPS in orchard and upland only. Nitrous oxide fluxes responded positively to MBC in all land use types except orchard which had the lowest WFPS. We conclude that (1) land use conversion from woodland to agriculture land uses leads to increased soil N₂O fluxes, partly due increased fertilizer use, and (2) irrespective of land use, soil N₂O fluxes are under environmental controls, the main variables being soil temperature and DOC, both of which control the supply of nitrification and denitrification substrates.     

The enemies within: intergenomic conflict, interlocus contest evolution (ICE), and the intraspecific Red Queen

Different loci within the genome of a single species can potentially coevolve in a manner that is analogous to the Red Queen process among species. The major factor driving this antagonistic coevolution among loci is intergenomic conflict, i.e., discord between individuals that is mediated by two or more gene products that are derived from different gene loci. We conclude that antagonistic coevolution is common among loci that code for social interactions, and that it has broad evolutionary implications, especially in the context of speciation and sex chromosome evolution. Received: 15 January 1997 / Accepted after revision: 14 April 1997     

When all life counts in conservation

Conservation science involves the collection and analysis of data. These scientific practices emerge from values that shape who and what is counted. Currently, conservation data are filtered through a value system that considers native life the only appropriate subject of conservation concern. We examined how trends in species richness, distribution, and threats change when all wildlife count by adding so-called non-native and feral populations to the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List and local species richness assessments. We focused on vertebrate populations with founding members taken into and out of Australia by humans (i.e., migrants). We identified 87 immigrant and 47 emigrant vertebrate species. Formal conservation accounts underestimated global ranges by an average of 30% for immigrants and 7% for emigrants; immigrations surpassed extinctions in Australia by 52 species; migrants were disproportionately threatened (33% of immigrants and 29% of emigrants were threatened or decreasing in their native ranges); and incorporating migrant populations into risk assessments reduced global threat statuses for 15 of 18 species. Australian policies defined most immigrants as pests (76%), and conservation was the most commonly stated motivation for targeting these species in killing programs (37% of immigrants). Inclusive biodiversity data open space for dialogue on the ethical and empirical assumptions underlying conservation science.