The Future of Scattered Trees in Agricultural Landscapes

Abstract: Mature trees scattered throughout agricultural landscapes are critical habitat for some biota and provide a range of ecosystem services. These trees are declining in intensively managed agricultural landscapes globally. We developed a simulation model to predict the rates at which these trees are declining, identified the key variables that can be manipulated to mitigate this decline, and compared alternative management proposals. We used the initial numbers of trees in the stand, the predicted ages of these trees, their rate of growth, the number of recruits established, the frequency of recruitment, and the rate of tree mortality to simulate the dynamics of scattered trees in agricultural landscapes. We applied this simulation model to case studies from Spain, United States, Australia, and Costa Rica. We predicted that mature trees would be lost from these landscapes in 90–180 years under current management. Existing management recommendations for these landscapes—which focus on increasing recruitment—would not reverse this trend. The loss of scattered mature trees was most sensitive to tree mortality, stand age, number of recruits, and frequency of recruitment. We predicted that perpetuating mature trees in agricultural landscapes at or above existing densities requires a strategy that keeps mortality among established trees below around 0.5% per year, recruits new trees at a rate that is higher than the number of existing trees, and recruits new trees at a frequency in years equivalent to around 15% of the maximum life expectancy of trees. Numbers of mature trees in landscapes represented by the case studies will decline before they increase, even if strategies of this type are implemented immediately. This decline will be greater if a management response is delayed.     

偏最小二乘回归方法在土地利用结构研究中的应用

针对当前LUCC研究中存在的数据间多重相关性和样本量不足的问题,论文将一种新型的多元统计数据分析方法---偏最小二乘回归引入到研究中。该方法可以有效地克服上述缺陷,并能实现多种数据分析方法的综合应用。为检验方法的功能及实用性,论文以苏锡常地区为例,对区域的土地利用结构及其影响因子进行了定量分析。结果表明,偏最小二乘回归是进行土地利用结构研究的一种十分有效的工具,在地学领域有广阔的应用前景。     

Analyzing the cost effectiveness of Santiago, Chile's policy of using urban forests to improve air quality

Santiago, Chile has the distinction of having among the worst urban air pollution problems in Latin America. As part of an atmospheric pollution reduction plan, the Santiago Regional Metropolitan government defined an environmental policy goal of using urban forests to remove particulate matter less than 10 microm (PM(10)) in the Gran Santiago area. We used cost effectiveness, or the process of establishing costs and selecting least cost alternatives for obtaining a defined policy goal of PM(10) removal, to analyze this policy goal. For this study, we quantified PM(10) removal by Santiago's urban forests based on socioeconomic strata and using field and real-time pollution and climate data via a dry deposition urban forest effects model. Municipal urban forest management costs were estimated using management cost surveys and Chilean Ministry of Planning and Cooperation documents. Results indicate that managing municipal urban forests (trees, shrubs, and grass whose management is under the jurisdiction of Santiago's 36 municipalities) to remove PM(10) was a cost-effective policy for abating PM(10) based on criteria set by the World Bank. In addition, we compared the cost effectiveness of managing municipal urban forests and street trees to other control policies (e.g. alternative fuels) to abate PM(10) in Santiago and determined that municipal urban forest management efficiency was similar to these other air quality improvement measures.     

华北山区温度推算模式和应用

利用华北山区气象站观测的温度与其所在纬度、经度和高度，分山区建立宏观地面气温场方程。采用１：２０万地形图，以１０＇经、纬度为步长，判读其高度值，代入已建立好的方程中，经地形项订正，推算华北山区年、月平均温度、年较差和ΣＴ＇≥１０℃，其精度达极显著水平。计算结果使我们对华北山区热量资源有了新的认识，最后求算华北山区的主要水果最优品质种植上限高度。     

110种树木对模拟酸雨和SO2单一和复合暴露的反应

用喷淋法对110种供试树木的枝条分别进行不同pHAR处理和在开顶式熏气罩内进行不同浓度的SO2暴露试验，以及先喷AR后接触SO2的复合暴露试验．结果表明，不同树种对AR和SO2暴露显示了不同的抗耐性和敏感性．     

作物产量决定因子分析

应用主成分分析,将影响水稻产量的一系列因子概括为四个主要因子:(1)土壤肥力因子,(2)栽插措施因子,(3)田间管理因子;(4)产量性状因子。将上述因子作为自变量,水稻产量作为因变量,进行逐步回归分析,得到一个产量预测模型(R=0.962)。根据各变量的回归系数大小,可以得到产量决定因子对产量影响的大小顺序为,田间管理因子>土壤肥力因子。栽插措施因子和产量性状因子对水稻产量的影响未达显著水平。 文中所述的分析方法适用于在不同的土壤条件下预测作物产量的潜在变化。     

酸性土壤改良对不同种源的柚木生长的影响

在强酸性土壤上，柚木不能正常生长；用石灰、有机肥和复合肥改良土壤后．树木生长正常，但如不继续追肥．生长将显著下降；7794、8508号种源的柚木在改良后的土壤上生长最好；7794．8508和3054号种源的柚木表现出对酸性土壤有一定的抗性；来自同一种源的个体之间存在着显著的生长差异．     

Impacts of some meteorological parameters on SO2 and TSP concentrations in Erzurum, Turkey

The air pollution is the one of the most important environmental problems in Erzurum, situated in the eastern of Turkey, during winter periods. The unfavorable climate as well as the city’s topography, and inappropriate urbanization cause serious air pollution problems. The air pollutant concentrations in a city have a close relationship with its meteorological parameters. In the present study, the relationship between daily average total suspended particulate (TSP) and sulphur dioxide (SO₂) concentrations with meteorological factors, such as wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, pressure and precipitation, in 1995–2002 winter seasons was statistically analyzed using the stepwise multiple linear regression analysis. According to the results obtained through analysis, higher TSP and SO₂ concentrations are strongly related to colder temperatures, lower wind speed, higher pressure system and weakly lower precipitation and higher relative humidity. The statistical models of SO₂ and TSP including meteorological parameters gave R² of 0.74 and 0.88, respectively. Furthermore, the correlation between the previous day’s SO₂, TSP concentrations and actual concentrations of these pollutants on that day was investigated and found as 0.84 and 0.53, respectively. In order to develop this model, previous day’s SO₂ and TSP concentrations were added to the equations. The new model for SO₂ enhanced considerably (R² = 0.92), but for TSP new model was not enhanced (R² = 0.89).     

UV-C辐射增强对绿化树种膜质过氧化及抗氧化酶的影响

采用叶片试验法研究了模拟紫外辐射(UV-C)胁迫对3种绿化树种叶片膜质过氧化及抗氧化酶产生的影响。实验结果表明:UV-C辐射处理使连翘ForsythiasuspensaVahl和垂柳Salixbabylonica叶片的叶绿素质量分数增加,但使水蜡树FraxinuschinesisRoxb.叶片的叶绿素质量分数降低。UV-C辐射处理增加连翘和垂柳叶片的SOD活性,而水蜡的SOD活性则表现为先升高随后降低的变化趋势;辐射处理对水蜡树和垂柳POD活性影响不大,但使连翘POD活性先升高随后降低;辐射处理明显降低水蜡树和连翘的CAT活性,而垂柳的则先升高后降低。辐射处理导致MDA含量增加。     

Use of genetic algorithms to select input variables in decision tree models for the prediction of benthic macroinvertebrates

Predicting freshwater organisms based on machine learning is becoming more and more reliable due to the availability of appropriate datasets, advanced modelling techniques and the continuously increasing capacity of computers. A database consisting of measurements collected at 360 sampling sites in non-navigable watercourses in Flanders was applied to predict the absence/presence of benthic macroinvertebrate taxa by means of decision trees. The measured variables were a combination of physical–chemical (temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen concentration, conductivity, total organic carbon, Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phosphorus), structural (granulometric analysis of the sediment, width, depth and flow velocity of the river) and two ecotoxicological variables. The predictive power of decision trees was assessed on the basis of the number of Correctly Classified Instances (CCI). A genetic algorithm was introduced to compare the predictive power of different sets of input variables for the decision trees. The number of input variables was reduced from 15 to 2–8 variables without affecting the predictive power of the decision trees significantly. Furthermore, reducing the number of input variables allowed to ease the identification of general data trends.