Using an expanded Safety Failure Event Network to analyze railway dangerous goods transportation system risk-accident

In order to improve the reliability and safety of railway dangerous goods transportation system (RDGTS), and prevent the similar accidents happened again, an easier operated, dynamic, systemic and quantitative approach called expanded Safety Failure Event Network (SFEN) is proposed to analyze the past typical RDGTS accidents. The expanded SFEN focuses on transfer the traditional safety occurrence process into a visible Accident Analysis Network (AAN) platform. To improve the previous SFEN approach, the risk factors categories are expanded including Human actions, Technical failure, Nature of transported goods, Environment factors, Management failure and External factors of the system. An AAN is established by using the risk factors as the nodes and using the interactions among these risk factors as the edges, the RDGTS risk analysis problem is transferred into a quantitative network structure analysis problem from a network perspective. After that, based on the AAN, TouchGraph and NetMiner are applied to calculate and rank the centrality degree of each sub-risk factor (or sub-heading) in a network. A RDGTS accident happened in 2001 is analyzed, the results show that TouchGraph and NetMiner can present the same interactions and importance of sub-risk factors (or sub-headings) through visible circle images in the platform, NetMiner is more digital because the results can be presented as the centrality degree values. The greatest contributed sub-risk factors are Equipment maintenance failure and Railway inspection agency failure, followed by cargo packaging problems, illegal entrainment problem. Misbehaves of the freight inspector with centrality degree 0.523810 shows that this sub-heading has the greatest contribution to the accident.     

Reliability and availability modeling of Subsea Xmas tree system using Dynamic Bayesian network with different maintenance methods

Subsea Xmas tree is a vital equipment for offshore oil and gas development. Aiming at the fault mode of subsea Christmas tree system under production conditions, the fault tree of subsea tree system was established, which was transformed into Dynamic Bayesian network, and the reliability and availability of subsea tree system with different repair states are quantitatively analyzed. In this paper, the DBNs are partially verified by the method based on three axes. The results show that the reliability of subsea vertical tree system is slightly higher than that of subsea horizontal tree system. After repair and maintenance, the performance of subsea tree system has been significantly improved, and the improvement of the system performance by preventive maintenance is more obvious. Compared with the perfect repair, the performance of the system with imperfect repair is not significantly reduced. Compared with perfect repair & preventive maintenance, the performance of the system with imperfect repair & preventive maintenance is slightly reduced. In addition, the influence of failure rates and degradation probability on reliability and availability is analyzed. By comparing the influence of failure rates on the system performance of non-maintenance and maintenance, it is found that the change of failure rates has the greatest influence on the reliability and the least influence on the availability of perfect repair & preventive maintenance. By comparing the performance of each component in the subsea tree system, it is found that the failure rates has the most obvious influence on the chock module, and gate valve and tree cap have the most significant influence on the reliability of the system. In order to improve the reliability of subsea tree system, it is necessary to improve the reliability of chock module, gate valve and tree cap.     

如何提高大型游乐设施设备本质安全

大型游乐设施事故主要是由于人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态导致的,目前部分设计制造单位对游乐设施危险源识别不充分,风险分析不到位,防控措施流于形式,不能从设计制造阶段彻底消除不安全因素,希望使用单位的规范管理来规避风险,这不能从根本上控制风险,游客和作业人员的不安全行为必须通过设备本体的安全功能来约束和控制.本文结合标准...     

Reporting and evaluation criteria as means towards a transparent use of ecotoxicity data for environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals

Ecotoxicity data with high reliability and relevance are needed to guarantee the scientific quality of environmental risk assessments of pharmaceuticals. The main advantages of a more structured approach to data evaluation include increased transparency and predictability of the risk assessment process, and the possibility to use non-standard data.In this collaboration, between the research project MistraPharma and the German Federal Environment Agency, a new set of reporting and evaluation criteria is presented and discussed. The new criteria are based on the approaches in the literature and the OECD reporting requirements, and have been further developed to include both reliability and relevance of test data.Intended users are risk assessors and researchers performing ecotoxicological experiments, but the criteria can also be used for education purposes and in the peer-review process for scientific papers. This approach intends to bridge the gap between the regulator and the scientist’s needs and way of work.     

机电产品可靠性研究与探讨

机电产品越来越广泛地应用于社会各个领域,随着自动化、小型化程度的提高,很多机电产品结构越来越复杂,并且其使用条件也越来越严酷,由此产生的产品可靠性问题必然越来越多,可靠性技术也越来越受到重视。本文针对机电产品,从可靠性管理、可靠性设计和分析、可靠性试验和评定三个方面,对可靠性研究工作进行初步探讨。     

Information seeking in documents by pilots: Assessment of the reliability problems caused by the transition from paper to electronic

Information seeking is completely ignored in research on aviation psychology and more generally in issues of air transport safety. But information seeking occupies a central place in the pilots’ work. And this activity is undergoing an important development: the transition from paper to electronic documents. A contribution to the assessment of this transition is presented here. The assessment is focused on deterioration of information access, understanding and exploitation, and their possible negative consequences in terms of reliability. The exploitation of the documentation by pilots, and particularly the information seeking activity, are described and linked to their contexts (i.e. the main tasks of flying that require information seeking). Then an users test is presented where some information-seeking tasks are evaluated in terms of cost and errors, by comparing electronic and paper documents. The results show that electronic documents provide new functions that seem useful but also that too many new functions generate difficulties. Then it seems that pilots need some time to learn how to use these new documents. Reducing attention needed to perform a task such as calculation is risky. Some aspects of information seeking by the pilots should be better analysed and evaluated.     

库仑滴定法测定化学需氧量的可靠性研究

通过对库仑滴定法测定废水中化学需氧量存在的问题分析,提出相应解决办法,加强空白值式剂,器皿使用过程中的纯净;注重废水稀释倍数的影响。这些措施为快速ＣＯＤｃｒ值的可靠性提供了保证。     

Utilizing Integrity Operating Windows (IOWs) for enhanced plant reliability & safety

Several industry codes, standards and recommended practices have been developed and utilized to maintain pressure equipment integrity and improve reliability. These industry standards focus heavily on inspections (time or risk based) and guidelines for operating equipment at conditions that enable a tolerable deterioration rate. RBI (risk based inspection), in effect, utilizes process conditions at a snapshot in time to recommend inspection strategies which can cover the span of the equipment's remaining life. On a day to day level, changes that occur in process conditions (excursions and upsets) are not fed back into the risk and criticality calculation. When such changes to operating conditions affect key process variables, new damage mechanisms could be introduced that affect the remaining life of an asset or accelerate existing damage mechanisms. The increase in risk resulting from these process changes goes unaccounted for until the effect of the deterioration is captured at the next inspection.Integrity Operating Windows (IOWs) are established limits for key process variables that can affect the integrity of the equipment if the process operation deviates from the established limits. The development of these IOWs requires fundamental understanding of the process and resulting damage mechanisms and is best facilitated by a team of corrosion and process engineers along with feedback from plant operators. A well-established IOW program is designed to provide real time notification of an increased risk to the integrity of an asset so that identified actions can be taken by the operators and/or plant managers proactively in a timely manner. Combining an RBI program with an IOW program can greatly increase its effectiveness and provide early recognition of equipment risks due to process changes. This paper will focus on the development of an IOW program and the benefits of combining it with a viable RBI program.     

Dynamic Bayesian network modeling of reliability of subsea blowout preventer stack in presence of common cause failures

A subsea blowout preventer (BOP) stack is used to seal, control and monitor oil and gas wells. It can be regarded as a series–parallel system consisting of several subsystems. This paper develops the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) of a parallel system with n components, taking account of common cause failures and imperfect coverage. Multiple error shock model is used to model common cause failures. Based on the proposed generic model, DBNs of the two commonly used stack types, namely the conventional BOP and modern BOP are developed. In order to evaluate the effects of the failure rates and coverage factor on the reliability and availability of the stacks, sensitivity analysis is performed.     

基于MTBF的光电感烟探测器可靠性研究

针对火灾探测报警系统重要组成模块—光电感烟探测器-报警控制器,根据其在实际使用过程中的不完全故障数据,改良了前人对该问题的传统研究方法,并提出了分段定时截尾可靠性参数模型。该模型主要考虑火灾探测报警系统控制器工作时序性和故障处理时间的影响,采用自主提出的原始故障数据筛选统计方法,分别求得光电感烟模块的首次使用寿命与平均故障间隔时间的参数估计。该方法能够减少火灾探测报警系统初始使用寿命过长而产生的平均故障间隔时间的估计偏差,对于火灾探测报警系统整体使用寿命的估计和维修管理有着重要意义。同时基于序贯思想的动态截尾也克服了定时截尾模型无法准确判断试验停止时间的不足,在保证参数较为精确的前提下最大限度地节省时间和资源。