外商直接投资对中国城市雾霾(PM_(2.5))污染的时空效应检验

本文利用了1998—2012年中国241个城市的空间面板数据对中国雾霾污染和FDI的区域分布特征及空间溢出效应进行经验考察,结合系统广义矩估计(SGMM)方法构建了动态空间面板模型,采用了Moran’s I和Geary’s C指数对中国FDI与雾霾(PM_(2.5))污染空间自相关性进行了全域和局域分析。结果发现:(1)雾霾(PM_(2.5))污染与FDI存在显著的空间正相关性,证明了雾霾(PM_(2.5))污染空间的溢出效应以及FDI的辐射效应的存在。同时FDI高值集聚区域一般是雾霾(PM_(2.5))高值集聚区,FDI低值集聚区域一般是雾霾(PM_(2.5))低值集聚区,表明一个地区的引资效果和雾霾(PM_(2.5))污染在地理上的集聚密切相关。雾霾(PM_(2.5))污染表现出显著的"叠加效应"和"溢出效应",说明中国雾霾(PM_(2.5))污染在空间维度、时间维度以及时空维度上分别表现出交叉、累积、持续的演变特征。(2)全样本下,FDI对雾霾(PM_(2.5))浓度的影响表现出增促效应。FDI存量每升高1%,雾霾(PM_(2.5))浓度升高0.011%。(3)分地区样本下,东部城市FDI存量每升高1%,雾霾(PM_(2.5))浓度升高0.001 9%;中部城市FDI存量每升高1%,雾霾(PM_(2.5))浓度升高0.018 3%;而西部城市FDI存量对雾霾(PM_(2.5))浓度影响不显著。上述实证结果说明中国雾霾污染存在着显著的空间依赖性和区域异质性,FDI对中国大部分城市的雾霾污染存在显著的增促效应。     

中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的碳排放效应

确定中国对外直接投资(OFDI)对CO2排放的影响路径,对"一带一路"沿线国家如何有效利用中国OFDI以实现可持续发展具有重要作用。该研究基于2003—2018年45个沿线国家的面板数据,应用具有阈值和动态特征的面板平滑转换回归(PSTR)模型,评估中国OFDI对CO2排放的直接效应和间接效应、线性效应和非线性效应。研究发现:(1)中国OFDI对沿线国家CO2排放的直接影响显著为负。(2)中国OFDI的规模效应增加了沿线国家CO2排放,其结构效应和技术效应进一步抑制了沿线国家CO2排放,且技术效应在间接效应中占有主导地位。(3)异质性分析表明,中国OFDI的碳减排效应更多体现在低收入国家。针对以上研究发现,文章认为沿线国家应持续引进中国OFDI,并通过提高能效和推广应用清洁能源打破经济发展的"不可持续性";中国政府应继续鼓励并引导具有竞争力的企业"走出去",充分发挥中国投资对东道国环境的改善作用,放大中国投资对低收入国家的技术溢出效应;中国应根据沿线国家经济发展水平对东道国实施差异化投资策略,实现中国投资环境效益最优化。     

Parental investment, adult sex ratios, and sexual selection in a socially monogamous seabird

Although most birds are monogamous, theory predicts that greater female parental investment and female-biased adult sex ratios will lower the polygyny threshold. This should result in polygynous mating, unless obligate biparental care or the spatial and temporal distribution of fertilizable females constrains a male’s ability to take advantage of a lowered polygyny threshold. Here we present data on the extent of male sexually dimorphic plumage, adult sex ratios and breeding season synchrony in three populations of a socially monogamous seabird, the brown booby Sula leucogaster. For one of these populations, San Pedro Mártir Island, we also present data on differences in male and female parental investment, mortality and probability of pairing. The extent of plumage dimorphism varied among populations. Sex ratios were female biased in all populations. On San Pedro Mártir Island, parental investment was female biased, females failed more often than males to find a mate, but there was no polygyny. We suggest that on San Pedro Mártir: (1) a period of obligate biparental care coupled with a relatively synchronous breeding season constrained the ability of males to take advantage of a high environmental polygamy potential and (2) the resulting socially monogamous mating system, in combination with the female-biased adult sex ratio, caused females to be limited by the availability of males despite their greater parental investment. Received: 18 November 1999 / Accepted: 24 January 2000     

The use of incubation behavior to adjust avian reproductive costs after egg laying

Reproduction in birds requires the input of time and energy during discrete breeding phases leading to investment trade-offs between laying date, clutch size, body mass, and incubation constancy. We investigated costs during incubation by experimentally enlarging 25 clutches of white-tailed ptarmigan Lagopus leucurus. The experiment was conducted in 2 years, one with harsh weather that forced a natural delay in reproduction. When forced to delay egg-laying, females began incubation with poorer body condition and foraged more during incubation. Rates of mass loss during incubation were not affected by clutch enlargement, and did not differ between harsh and benign years; however, females that were heavier at the start of incubation lost more mass than lighter females. Clutch-enlarged females had reduced nest attendance compared to control birds in both years and incubation periods increased by up to 2 days relative to controls. In the harsh year, there was a trend for clutch-enlarged females to have lower nest success, but there was no effect on overwinter survival. Different behavioral responses by females in the 2 years showed that incubation costs may depend on other factors such as female quality, food supply, or weather conditions. Incubation is a dynamic period during which birds may adjust energy balances by varying body condition and food intake. Received: 28 March 2000 / Received in revised form: 18 August 2000 / Accepted: 2 July 2000     

高速公路水土保持生态服务功能价值评估浅析——以陕西省不同区域三条高速公路为例

以陕西省3个典型区域的3条高速公路为例,在构建高速公路水土保持生态服务功能价值评价体系并确定各评价指标计算方法的基础上,全面分析了高速公路水土保持的生态服务功能价值。旨在相互交流的基础上,为后期同类工程水土保持投资预算设计和资金管理使用提供理论依据。     

Safety investment optimization in process industry: A risk-based approach

Process plant safety is a critical indicator of organizational performance. Adequate investment into safety practices to avoid future accident cost is therefore a beneficial strategy. The current approach to such investments in the process industry is driven largely by simple risk-based heuristics, insurance market premiums, organizational culture and management judgment. There is, however, an absence of an overarching methodology to assist such an effort. Therefore, there is a need for developing a robust decision-making framework for enabling systematic and optimal allocation of financial resources across all significant risk elements within a process plant.The present work proposes a safety investment optimization (SIO) framework for a typical process plant. Such an optimization approach targets maximal reduction of risk values across all potential hazards within the constraint of a given safety investment budget at the incipient stage of establishing a plant such that it saves future cost to company by reducing the risk from accidents. At the same time the framework takes into account the need to comply with the regulatory requirements imposed by the government. Additionally, access to insurance market as a strategy to transfer risk is also integrated. Finally, the residual risks are managed through investments in selective safeguards while ensuring that the benefits over-weigh the cost of such an exercise. For illustrating the application of the framework, a representative process plant with a select number of risk scenarios is chosen and all steps suggested by the framework are demonstrated quantitatively. It is anticipated that the proposed SIO framework will help optimal resource allocation for managing the risks implicit in a typical process plant.     

基于博弈论的轨道交通建设项目安全投入与监管行为分析

研究在轨道交通施工中如何采取合理安全投入和安全监管等手段加强建设项目管理水平,通过博弈论的相关理论和分析方法,剖析轨道交通建设施工企业自身的安全投入行为与安全监管部门的监管行为之间的关系,并以某企业为例进行具体说明。研究结果表明:轨道交通建设项目的安全监管稳定状态与施工企业的安全投入、事故后企业损失、监管部门执行安全监管的成本、企业违规受到的处罚力度以及监管部门由于失职受到的处罚等因素有关,其中,随着监管部门对安全监管投入的增加以及对施工企业违规处罚力度的加强,监管部门将获得更高的收益,而施工企业按照规定进行安全投入的概率也将进一步加大。研究为监管部门制定相关安全监管策略时提供支持和参考。     

Effects of estrogen exposure in mussels, Mytilus edulis, at different stages of gametogenesis

Mytilus edulis were exposed to 17β-estradiol (E2) and the synthetic estrogens ethinyl estradiol (EE2) and estradiol benzoate (EB) for 10 days. Two exposures were performed to determine their effect on vitellogenin (VTG) and estrogen receptor 2 (ER2) mRNA expression at different stages of the reproductive cycle. Significant natural variation was not observed in VTG mRNA expression, though ER2 mRNA expression displayed significantly lower values during January, February and July compared with other times of the year. A significant increase in VTG and ER2 mRNA expression was observed in mussels exposed to estrogens at the early stage of gametogenesis. In contrast, mature mussels displayed no statistically significant change in the VTG or ER2 mRNA expression. The data presented suggests that the reproductive physiology of molluscs, in terms of VTG and ER2 mRNA expression, may be susceptible to damage by environmental estrogens at certain points in their gametogenesis process.     

环保投资效率实证与政策建议

对我国环保投资效率进行实证检验,发现每年我国的环保投资是不断增加的,但是相对于其自身的高速增长,环保投资所取得的治污效果是相当差的。尤其是本文在孙冬煜所构造的"环境保护投资优先增长模型"的基础上,对原模型中的假设进行了适度的修正,利用2000-2007年我国环保投资数据,对我国环保投资的效率进行了实证检验。我国的污染物排放量呈逐年上升趋势,且上升幅度较大。造成这种结果的原因,主要就是我国环保投资的效率低下。基于以上分析,作者还提出了完善公众监管措施、改进投融资机制、提高科技成果的转化能力、推动环保产业战略性调整与产业结构的优化、制定相关的财政激励措施等提升我国环保投资运行效率的政策建议。     

基于三层结构的绿色招商选择体系研究

阐述了中国招商引资的基本情况及存在的问题,提出了进行绿色招商的必要性.在绿色招商选择系统结构分析的基础上,提出了基于三层结构的绿色招商选择体系,并根据该体系构建了s工业园的绿色招商选择体系.