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111.
In this work we present a method for risk-informed decision-making in the physical asset management context whereby risk evaluation and cost-benefit analysis are considered in a common framework. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures to prioritize projects based on a combination of risk tolerance criteria, cost-benefit analysis and uncertainty reduction metrics. There is a need in the risk and asset management literature for a unified framework through which quantitative risk can be evaluated against tolerability criteria and trade-off decisions can be made between risk treatment options. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures for loss of life, loss of production and loss of property. A risk matrix is used to classify risk as intolerable, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) or broadly tolerable. Risks in the intolerable and ALARP region require risk treatment, and risk treatment options are generated. Risk reduction benefit of the treatment options is quantified, and cost-benefit analysis is performed using discounted cashflow analysis. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to derive weights for prioritization criteria based on decision-maker preferences. The weights, along with prioritization criteria for risk reduction, tolerance criteria and project cost, are used to prioritize projects using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The usefulness of the methodology for improved decision-making is illustrated using a numerical example. 相似文献
112.
Reducing accident occurrence in petrochemical plants is crucial, thus appropriately allocating management resources to safety investment is a vital issue for corporate management as international competition intensifies. Understanding the priority of safety investment in a rational way helps achieve this objective.In this study, we targeted an acrylonitrile plant. First, Dow Chemical's Fire and Explosion Index (F&EI) identified the reaction process as having the greatest physical risk. We evaluated the severity of accidents in the reaction process using the Process Safety Metrics advocated by the Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS); however, this index does not express damages a company actually experience. To solve this problem, we proposed a new metric that adds indirect cost to CCPS metrics. We adopted fault tree analysis (FTA) as a risk assessment method. In identifying top events and basic events, we attempted to improve the completeness of risk identification by considering accidents from the past, actual plant operation and equipment characteristics, natural disasters, and cyber-attacks and terrorist attacks. Consequently, we identified the top events with high priority in handling because of serious accidents as fire/explosion outside the reactor, fire/explosion inside the reactor, and reactor destruction. The new CCPS evaluation index proposed in this study found that fire and explosion outside the reactor has the highest severity. We considered the creation of the fault tree (FT) diagram of the top event, estimating the occurrence probability, and identifying the risk reduction part and capital investment aimed at risk reduction. As an economically feasible selection method for risk reduction investment, using the difference in loss amounts before and after safety investments indicated investment priority. 相似文献
113.
Academic research and development (R&D) labs are a significant part of academic life. But there can be physical, environmental, and experiment quality risks associated to this activity. Academic labs can present specific experiments, which have associated risks for researchers. Academic labs are also characterized by a high turnover of students and many of them are not fully aware of the level of physical and environmental risks of their activity. Accidents in academic labs with injuries and loss of life are facts that have to be tackled through risk management approaches. The objective of this paper is to present an integrated management approach, tackling risk management and analysis methods. HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Study) and PFMEA (Process Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) enabled, respectively, the analysis of safety and environmental risks. By quantifying the level of risk according to the type of experiment and the research context, it is possible to provide safety to the system. The resulting Digital Poka-Yoke – a mistake-proofing approach – has brought about the desired quality of results in experiments. The proposed approach was validated through a case study monitoring naphthenic corrosion experiments conducted by the Lab of Surface Electrochemistry and Corrosion (LSEC) at the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR). As a consequence, this approach is currently in use at this lab. 相似文献
114.
Nowadays, pipelines have been extensively used for transporting oil and gas for long distances. Therefore, their risk assessment could help to identify the associated hazards and take necessary actions to eliminate or reduce the risk. In the present research, an artificial neural network (ANN) and a fuzzy inference system (FIS) were used to prepare a new model for pipeline risk assessment with higher accuracy. To reach this objective, the Muhlbauer method, as a common method for oil and gas pipeline risk assessment, was used for determining important and influential factors in the pipeline performance. Mamdani fuzzy model was developed in Matlab software by considering expert knowledge. The outcomes of this model were used to develop an ANN. To verify the developed model, the inter-phase shore pipe of phase 9–10 refinery in the South Pars Gas field was considered as a case study. The results showed that the proposed model gives a higher level of accuracy, precision, and reliability in terms of pipe risk assessment. 相似文献
115.
随着国民经济的快速发展,我国人民的生活水平和质量也随之而提高,对于生态环境以及居住环境的要求也相应提升。水是万物之源,是保障人们生产生活的基本要素之一,为了有效提升水环境质量,先进的水环境监测技术必不可少。随着科学技术的飞速发展,水环境监测技术也在不断调整和优化,逐渐向信息化方向发展,在生态环境保护工作中发挥着不可替代的作用。本文将详细阐述现阶段我国在水环境监测工作中实施的信息化新技术,希望能为相关研究人员提供参考和借鉴。 相似文献
116.
土地利用/覆盖变化对长江上游非点源污染影响研究 总被引:27,自引:6,他引:21
在国内外相关研究的基础上,利用输出系数模型,结合RS和GIS技术,对长江上游的非点源污染负荷进行了空间模拟和负荷估算.模拟结果表明,在不考虑流域损失的前提下,由于土地利用造成的非点源污染负荷TN总量从20世纪70年代的123万t下降至2000年的116万t,基本呈逐年减少的趋势,由土地利用造成的TP的变化趋势与TN基本相同,从70年代的3.7万t下降到2000年的3.5万t左右.就省份、土地利用类型和水系而言,四川省、种植用地和草地以及金沙江水系和嘉陵江水系对长江上游的非点源污染贡献较大.在非点源污染负荷强度上,重庆市和嘉陵江水系单位面积负荷最高,是今后应重点治理的地区.结果表明,该模型可以对长江上游这样的超大尺度空间的非点源污染进行较好的空间模拟. 相似文献
117.
Improvements on Flood Alleviation in Germany: Lessons Learned from the Elbe Flood in August 2002 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The increase in damage due to natural disasters is directly related to the number of people who live and work in hazardous
areas and continuously accumulate assets. Therefore, land use planning authorities have to manage effectively the establishment
and development of settlements in flood-prone areas in order to avoid the further increase of vulnerable assets. Germany faced
major destruction during the flood in August 2002 in the Elbe and Danube catchments, and many changes have been suggested
in the existing German water and planning regulations. This article presents some findings of a “Lessons Learned” study that
was carried out in the aftermath of the flood and discusses the following topics: 1) the establishment of comprehensive hazard
maps and flood protection concepts, 2) the harmonization of regulations of flood protection at the federal level, 3) the communication
of the flood hazard and awareness strategies, and 4) how damage potential can be minimized through measures of area precaution
such as resettlement and risk-adapted land use. Although attempts towards a coordinated and harmonized creation of flood hazard
maps and concepts have been made, there is still no uniform strategy at all planning levels and for all states (Lae
nder) of the Federal Republic of Germany. The development and communication of possible mitigation strategies for “unthinkable
extreme events” beyond the common safety level of a 100-year flood are needed. In order to establish a sustainable and integrated
flood risk management, interdisciplinary and catchment-based approaches are needed. 相似文献
118.
The extensive literature on environmental justice has, by now, well defined the essential ingredients of cumulative risk,
namely, incompatible land uses and vulnerability. Most problematic is the case when risk is produced by a large aggregation
of small sources of air toxics. In this article, we test these notions in an area of Southern California, Southeast Los Angeles
(SELA), which has come to be known as Asthmatown. Developing a rapid risk mapping protocol, we scan the neighborhood for small
potential sources of air toxics and find, literally, hundreds of small point sources within a 2-mile radius, interspersed
with residences. We also map the estimated cancer risks and noncancer hazard indices across the landscape. We find that, indeed,
such large aggregations of even small, nondominant sources of air toxics can produce markedly elevated levels of risk. In
this study, the risk profiles show additional cancer risks of up to 800 in a million and noncancer hazard indices of up to
200 in SELA due to the agglomeration of small point sources. This is significant (for example, estimates of the average regional
point-source-related cancer risk range from 125 to 200 in a million). Most importantly, if we were to talk about the risk
contour as if they were geological structures, we would observe not only a handful of distinct peaks, but a general “mountain
range” running all throughout the study area, which underscores the ubiquity of risk in SELA. Just as cumulative risk has
deeply embedded itself into the fabric of the place, so, too, must intervention seek to embed strategies into the institutions
and practices of SELA. This has implications for advocacy, as seen in a recently initiated participatory action research project
aimed at building health research capacities into the community in keeping with an ethic of care. 相似文献
119.
120.
改进的灰色关联投影法在大气环境质量评价中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
大气环境质量评价具有多指标的特点,且各指标的属性、重要程度和可比性都不相同,使得方案比选具有明显的不确定性。通过采用适应不同环境的分辨系数和基于信息熵的权重计算,来改进灰色关联投影方法,使得大气环境质量评价更加客观、公正和准确。最后用实例论证该方法是有效可行的。 相似文献