基层环境监测站业务风险管理现状与对策

简述了基层环境监测业务风险管理现状及存在的问题,对业务风险管理的认识程度不高,业务风险管理的系统性不强,缺少环境监测业务风险管理指导性文件。提出,应树立正确的环境监测业务风险理念,建立环境监测业务风险管理组织机构,健全与监测工作紧密结合的业务风险管理体系,优先监控风险高的环境监测工作,大力培养风险管理人才。     

火电厂自行监测关键问题研究

分析了我国火电厂自行监测的现状及存在的问题,包括监测指标不全、监测频次不足、监测点位代表性不够、信息公开不规范等。从监测方案和信息记录2个方面,针对废气、废水、厂界噪声、周边环境质量等的监测点位、监测指标和监测频次,以及监测信息、生产和污染治理设施运行状况、工业固体废物的记录要求,提出了相应的技术建议。     

Using Multi-Scale Sampling and Spatial Cross-Correlation to Investigate Patterns of Plant Species Richness

Land managers need better techniques to assess exoticplant invasions. We used the cross-correlationstatistic, I _YZ, to test for the presence ofspatial cross-correlation between pair-wisecombinations of soil characteristics, topographicvariables, plant species richness, and cover ofvascular plants in a 754 ha study site in RockyMountain National Park, Colorado, U.S.A. Using 25 largeplots (1000 m²) in five vegetation types, 8 of 12variables showed significant spatial cross-correlationwith at least one other variable, while 6 of 12variables showed significant spatial auto-correlation. Elevation and slope showed significant spatialcross-correlation with all variables except percentcover of native and exotic species. Percent cover ofnative species had significant spatialcross-correlations with soil variables, but not withexotic species. This was probably because of thepatchy distributions of vegetation types in the studyarea. At a finer resolution, using data from ten1 m² subplots within each of the 1000 m² plots, allvariables showed significant spatial auto- andcross-correlation. Large-plot sampling was moreaffected by topographic factors than speciesdistribution patterns, while with finer resolutionsampling, the opposite was true. However, thestatistically and biologically significant spatialcorrelation of native and exotic species could only bedetected with finer resolution sampling. We foundexotic plant species invading areas with high nativeplant richness and cover, and in fertile soils high innitrogen, silt, and clay. Spatial auto- andcross-correlation statistics, along with theintegration of remotely sensed data and geographicinformation systems, are powerful new tools forevaluating the patterns and distribution of native andexotic plant species in relation to landscape structure.     

A Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Modelling Approach to Assess the Risk of Wind-borne Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus from Infected Premises

The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.

Using the land transformation model to forecast vacant land

Growing or shrinking cities can experience increases in vacant land. As urban populations and boundaries fluctuate, holes can open in once tight urban areas. Many cities chase growth-oriented approaches to dealing with vacancies. It is critical to understand land-use alteration to accurately predict transformations of physical change in order to make better informed decisions about this phenomenon. This research utilizes the land transformation model (LTM), an artificial neural networking mechanism in Geographic Information Systems, to forecast vacant land. Variable influence on vacant land prediction and accuracy of the LTM is assessed by comparing input factors and patterns, using time-series data from 1990 to 2010 in Fort Worth, Texas, USA. Results indicate that the LTM can be useful in simulating vacant land-use changes but more precise mechanisms are necessary to increase accuracy. This will allow for more proactive decisions to better regulate the process of urban decline and regeneration.     

The role of toxicology in the evaluation of new agrochemicals

Abstract

The use of agrochemicals like crop protecting agents, veterinary disinfectants, and wood preservatives may result in (un)intentional exposure of the environment, animals and man. This paper deals with current testing strategies to assess the potential health risks for humans exposed to these chemicals during production or application or via consumption of foods containing pesticide residues.

Principles and procedures for safety assessment of pesticide residues in food as developed by WHO/FAO are described. Different types of toxicity studies in mammalian test animal species are discussed and a strategy is outlined in order to characterize the toxicity profile of a compound and the relationship between applied doses and adverse effects. Safety testing of agrochemicals should be carried out in relation to its intended use, and in particular attention will be paid to toxicity testing of residues of pesticides in food. Extrapolation of results from animal studies to humans and the use of safety factors is discussed.

Besides the use of animal protocol studies for safety testing of agrochemicals, the potential use of in‐vitro models derived from organs and tissues of animals is discussed. Data on the in‐vitro metabolism of thiabendazole, aldicarb and alachlor are discussed in order to demonstrate that such data may complement or partly substitute whole animal experimentation.

Principles and procedures for safety testing of residues of agrochemicals in food as applied during the last three decades, constitute a ‘safety‐first’ approach, providing sufficient safety margins for the consumer of foods which may contain low levels of residues of agrochemicals.     

Stock market responses to chemical accidents in Japan: An event study

Despite recent major chemical process accidents in Japan, the top management teams of firms still avoid taking costly risk reduction measures because of their low perceived impact on firm performance. The disclosure of information on accident risks might motivate managers to enhance workplace safety because of the subsequent evaluation of firms by investors in stock markets. If the disclosed risk information is newly available for investors, firms with a high risk of accidents would receive a poor evaluation by stock markets and thus managers would take risk reduction measures to prevent stock prices from declining. In this study, we conduct an event study analysis to examine whether accident risk information is already reflected in stock prices, using data on the Japanese chemical industry. The results of our event study show that the estimated cumulative average abnormal returns of firms' stocks are significantly negative after severe accidents actually occurred. This finding implies that risk information is not already reflected in the stock prices of Japanese chemical firms and that the disclosure of accident risk information has the potential to motivate the top management teams of firms to reduce their firms’ accident risk.     

Value of information in product recovery decisions: a Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question ‘what is its value?’ is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information.     

Vehicle-occupant deaths caused by tornadoes in the United States, 1900–1998

Abstract

Occupants of vehicles encounter an uncertain degree of risk during tornadic storms. The current National Weather Service guidelines suggest we abandon vehicles to lie in a ditch if no sturdy shelter is available. However, these guidelines were developed without the benefit of supporting research. As we are an increasingly vehicle-dependent society, it is important to explore the historical record of vehicle-occupant deaths to see if the National Weather Service guidance is appropriate. The objective of this paper is to investigate the number, distribution, and broad spatial and temporal trends associated with vehicle-occupant deaths that have occurred as a result of tornadoes, and to define the proportion of tornado-induced deaths that have occurred in vehicles.

There were 15,047 deaths caused by tornadoes from 1900 through 1998. Of those, 5685 occurred at a defined site, and 270 were known to have occurred in vehicles. The number of vehicle-occupant deaths, as a proportion of all site-known, tornado-induced deaths, was constant from 1959–1979, but decreased significantly between 1980–1998. The number of deaths was related to several influencing factors. Linear regressions and correlations were employed to determine the degree of relationship between the number of deaths and several explanatory factors. While population, number of vehicle registrations, and number of tornadoes all seemed to influence the number of deaths to some degree, the most significant factor to influence the number of deaths appeared to be vehicle safety features. Most vehicle-occupant deaths occurred during rare F4 tornadoes, when vehicles where thrown from roadways. Regionally, the Great Plains had the highest number of vehicle-occupant deaths from tornadoes.     

Plant/soil concentration ratios for paired field and garden crops, with emphasis on iodine and the role of soil adhesion

In the effort to predict the risks associated with contaminated soils, considerable reliance is placed on plant/soil concentration ratio (CR) values measured at sites other than the contaminated site. This inevitably results in the need to extrapolate among the many soil and plant types. There are few studies that compare CR among plant types that encompass both field and garden crops. Here, CRs for 40 elements were measured for 25 crops from farm and garden sites chosen so the grain crops were in close proximity to the gardens. Special emphasis was placed on iodine (I) because data for this element are sparse. For many elements, there were consistent trends among CRs for the various crop types, with leafy crops > root crops ≥ fruit crops ≈ seed crops. Exceptions included CR values for As, K, Se and Zn which were highest in the seed crops. The correlation of CRs from one plant type to another was evident only when there was a wide range in soil concentrations. In comparing CRs between crop types, it became apparent that the relationships differed for the rare earth elements (REE), which also had very low CR values. The CRs for root and leafy crops of REE converged to a minimum value. This was attributed to soil adhesion, despite the samples being washed, and the average soil adhesion for root crops was 500 mg soil kg⁻¹ dry plant and for leafy crops was 5 g kg⁻¹. Across elements, the log CR was negatively correlated with log Kd (the soil solid/liquid partition coefficient), as expected. Although, this correlation is expected, measures of correlation coefficients suitable for stochastic risk assessment are not frequently reported. The results suggest that r ≈ −0.7 would be appropriate for risk assessment.