江淮地区特大洪涝灾害的灰色预测

本文依据1951～1990年江淮地区特大洪涝资料,建立了原息GM(1,1)模型,并成功地预测出1991年该地区发出的特大洪涝灾害.在此基础上,又分别建立了新息模型,新陈代谢模型和准新陈代谢模型,并运用后两者预测了该地区未来可能发生特大洪涝灾害的时间:1999年和2007年。     

泥石流危险范围的模型实验预测法

泥石流危险范围的模型实验预测旨在确定一次泥石流可能堆积泛滥的最大范围.通过泥石流不同冲出量、堆积区坡度和容重的31次模型实验,获取了泥石流堆积面积.最大堆积长度、宽度和厚度的实验数据.采用量纲分析方法,建立了一次泥石流危险范围的预测模型,并由实验资料确定了模型的修正系数.在云南和甘肃的应用实践表明,预测模型精度高,适用范围广,可在我国泥石流危险范围预测预报中使用.     

SEARCH: A GAGED WATERSHED INVENTORY1

ABSTRACT: A method, adapted to an APL interactive terminal, is described which allows the operator to thoroughly search a large set of gaged watersheds in order to find sources of comparable hydrologic data for detailed analysis. Bases of the search - and inventory - include drainage basin size and elevation, and geographical and temporal parameters, and should enhance opportunities for more reliable use of existing data.     

Threshold estimation from the linear dose-response model: Method and radiation data

The linear dose-response model is considered a conservative, nonthreshold relationship. This is based on a confusion between the sufficient condition (that is, zero slope at zero dose) and the necessary condition (that is, response distinguishable from zero). Once the threshold is properly defined, it is shown that the linear model predicts thresholds for radiation data in good agreement with experimental results.     

FIELD EVALUATION OF SOME PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT TECHNIQUES1

ABSTRACT: Public involvement in water resources planning is receiving much current attention, and there is a need to examine systematically how different public involvement techniques work in practice. The following techniques were among those used to involve the public in a recent Corps of Engineers’study of flooding on San Pedro Creek in Pacifica, California: a public workshop, citizen information bulletins (CIBs) and questionnaries. Interviews were held with 75 study participants to evaluate the effectiveness of these techniques. The interviews indicated that various study participants felt positively about the particular workshop format employed and about the use of a communications specialist to train workshop leaders. There were mixed reactions to the effectiveness of the CIBs and questionnaires. Although many individual citizens felt that the CIBs and questionnaires were useful, some of the Corps planners felt that CIBs and questionnaires would only be “cost-effective” on large studies and/or where the questionnaire response rate was high. The interviews led to a number of specific suggestions regarding how the extent of public involvement could be increased in future water resources planning studies.     

WATER DATA - A NEW AWARENESS1

ABSTRACT: One of the most significant changes m the field of hydrology in the past few years has been the increase m demand for basic data resulting from a new awareness on the part of planners, developers and managers of the essential nature of such data. For many years data collection has been an onerous, routine operation, following which the data were processed and stored - either in publications or file drawers - and the job considered completed. Two developments have changed that picture: the realization that we are drastically altering OUT environment, and the advent of the computer. The first forced us into a recognition of our need for accurate basic data and the second provided a new methodology for handling and using it. The change is evidenced m many ways and numerous activities are underway at both State and Federal level for all facets of the acquisition and handling of water data. The collection of basic data still involves hard routine work and a conscientious-effort to maintain a high level of quality. Hopefully, recognition of the absolutely essential nature of an adequate data base will result in the continued enhancement of the basic data collector and the concomitant increase in support of his activities.     

Rockfall Hazard and Risk Assessment Along a Transportation Corridor in the Nera Valley,Central Italy

Rockfalls are a common type of fast-moving slope failures, and in many countries they represent the primary cause of landslide fatalities. We present a methodology to ascertain rockfall hazard and to determine the associated risk along transportation networks. The proposed methodology is based on the combined analysis of the recurrence of rockfall events, determined from historical information, the frequency-volume statistics of rockfalls, obtained from inventories of recent rockfall triggering events, and the results of a physically based, spatially distributed rockfall simulation model used to determine rockfall hazard. The available information on rockfall hazard is combined in a Geographic Information System with a map of the transportation network to identify the road sections potentially subject to rockfalls. Information on the location and type of rockfall defensive measures, including revetment nets, elastic fences, concrete walls, and artificial tunnels, is used to estimate the efficacy of the defensive structures and to determine the level of the residual rockfall risk along the roads. To illustrate the methodology, we discuss an application in a 48-km² area in the Nera River valley, in the Umbria Region of central Italy, where rockfalls are abundant, and where considerable investments were recently made to mitigate rockfall risk. Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.     

GIS在巨灾保险风险管理中的应用研究

近年来 ,巨灾的不断发生 ,使得许多保险和再保险公司遭受巨大赔偿 ,乃至可能造成破产。究其原因 ,除了人们对巨灾自身难以抗拒这一客观原因外 ,保险企业对巨灾保险的风险管理方法、技术和手段的不适也是一个很重要的因素。为此 ,笔者分析了利用GIS辅助巨灾保险风险管理的优越性 ,并就GIS在巨灾保险的信息管理、风险累积预测和风险管理专家系统中所起的作用和发挥的功能分别进行了探讨。利用GIS辅助巨灾保险风险管理 ,不仅可以了解巨灾的发生和变化规律 ,进行危险性区域和费率区域的划分 ,而且可以优化保险和再保险方案 ,并通过专家系统设计出符合实用灾情的风险管理及保险管理的对策 ,对保险公司的巨灾保险风险管理起到了重要的指导作用。     

运用风险管理理念,提高灭火救援水平

根据消防部队灭火救援工作中的职业危险 ,引入了风险管理理念。笔者运用安全系统工程的理论和方法 ,建立了灭火救援工作的风险管理方法以及风险识别、风险评价的方法和步骤 ,并针对当前的情况 ,提出风险控制的具体措施。该方法简单 ,易于操作。在安全管理工作中应用风险管理方法 ,根据现有资料和知识经验 ,针对部门的具体情况 ,找出灭火救援工作中存在的风险 ,并对各种风险及其危险程度进行评价 ,在此基础上 ,采取相应的控制措施。分析和研究表明 ,运用风险管理有利于控制或减少消防人员在灭火救援中存在的风险 ,防范事故发生 ,提高灭火救援的水平。     

保险对企业安全监督管理之作用

通过开展适合于保险与安全监管工作的风险评估体系的研究 ,充分发挥保险在安全监管工作中的作用 ,从而为降低职工、企业乃至全社会的风险水平 ,为经济的可持续发展和社会稳定提供必要的保证条件。