The management of process control deployment using interactions in risks analyses

The purpose of this article is to present the concept of risk typology and its use in the management of process control deployment at a fab-wide level. This research provides a comprehensive method based on Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis to control failures that count throughout an organization.The method employed in this research uses a model of risk analysis and typology to operate a demonstration and to infer management practices.It results from this model: (1) the demonstration of equalities among some typologies and (2) a practical manner to use it to manage the deployment of controls and feedbacks throughout an entire manufacturing system. A four years observation of process control deployment underlines the potential of this method to remove silos-effects among risks analyses.To conclude, the concept of typology can sustain process control management and especially the deployment of controls and feedbacks. An industrial observation evaluates its potential of development.     

中国石化HSE监督管理系统研究与实现

为使中国石化HSE管理达到具有较强国际竞争力的跨国能源化工公司的水平,在充分吸收国内外先进企业HSE管理经验基础上,结合中国石化业务特点,研究开发了中国石化HSE监督管理系统。系统以风险管理为核心,体现PDCA管理思想,遵循中国石化一致的HSE管理理念,按照＂谁主管、谁负责＂,与HSE管理体系完全吻合等原则进行设计,采用最新云计算模式、多层B/S软件体系结构以及WMFC、XForm、SOAP、XML等相关标准进行开发,实现了分布应用、集中管理的运行模式。通过在中国石化总部、5家试点企业和近100家非试点企业的现场应用,结果表明,该系统满足了中国石化HSE监督管理及绩效评估的需要,实现了HSE管理的标准化、规范化和系统化,为管理决策提供支撑,提高了HSE管理效率,准备在中国石化系统内全面推广应用。     

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making.     

工业级远程环境监测管理系统

针对一些工业生产发达地区污染源众多而且分散的特点,提出一套工业级远程环境监控管理系统,为环保执法人员提供了技术辅助手段.系统分为下位机和上位机两部分,适用于高温高粉尘的工业生产环境,满足稳定性和健壮性要求.系统已应用于佛山市南海区多家铝型材厂,取得良好的效果.     

基于AE的燃气管网事故分析模块设计与实现

随着城市燃气管网的飞速发展,在役燃气管道的安全问题日益突出,针对燃气事故致因及后果,基于ArcGIS网络模型,运用GIS网络拓扑分析、空间数据库等技术,设计利用管网网络模型实现管网事故分析方法,并结合C#+ArcEngine编程技术实现燃气管网事故分析模块,该模块实现爆管分析、燃气泄漏扩散范围分析、最优路径分析、连通性...     

区域滑坡灾害地形地貌因子敏感性分析研究

为分析地形地貌与滑坡敏感性之间的关系,借助地理信息系统(GIS)空间分析技术和滑坡影响因子贡献率的数学方法,研究雅安市雨城区坡度坡向对滑坡的影响程度的大小。通过研究得到了每一区间的坡度和坡向对滑坡的贡献率,定量地分析了坡度、坡向对研究区域的滑坡发育的关系。研究结果表明,坡度20～30°区间的区域为滑坡最敏感的区域,坡向带90～120°区间是滑坡灾害最敏感的区域,但坡向带每一区域的贡献率差别不大。     

基于第三方评估的空管安全评估管理模式研究

为促进空中交通管理(ATM)安全评估的有效开展,建立符合我国国情的空管安全评估管理机制。从信息经济学角度分析我国空管安全评估过程中存在的信息不对称问题,研究高等教育评估、质量认证及其他行业安全评估的管理模式。在此基础上,根据我国国情和空管行业特点,提出引入第三方评估的方式进行空管安全评估,并在管理模式的宏观层面采用政府管理模式;微观层面上根据系统工程学理论构建出空管安全评估微观管理框架。结果表明:第三方评估模式与空管安全评估相结合有助于在安全评估过程中提高安全水平的显现能力,降低政府的信息成本。     

Value of information analysis for adequate monitoring of carbon dioxide storage in geological reservoirs under uncertainty

As monitoring is essential for the proper management of geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the ability to value information from monitoring is indispensable to adequately design a monitoring program. It is necessary to judge whether the expected improvement in management is worth the cost of monitoring. The value of information (VOI) is closely related to the possible increase in expected utility gained by gathering the information, the concept of which can be applied to such judgement. Although VOI analysis has been extensively studied in the context of decision analysis, its application to the management of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) operations is rare. This paper introduces and discusses the methodology of VOI analyses in the context of monitoring CO₂ storage. A motivating problem with discrete probabilities is used to illustrate the concept of VOI. It is demonstrated that information is not always of value; for information to be worthwhile, monitoring under uncertainty must satisfy certain conditions. This concept is then extended to continuous probability distributions. The effects of prior uncertainty and information reliability on the VOI are examined. It is shown that an excessive improvement in information accuracy yields little value and that the optimal level of reliability can be inferred. VOI analyses provide quantitative insights into the value of information-gathering activities and therefore can be an objective means to adequately design and impartially justify a monitoring program.     

Uncertainty and measurement error in welfare models for risk changes

Most welfare models of environmental or mortality risk reductions assume that risks are exogenously determined and known with certainty. However, a growing body of research suggests that uncertainty about risks can affect choices over risky prospects. I present a decision-weighted random-utility model that decomposes welfare losses into those attributable to an increase in the deterministic component of risk and those attributable to uncertainty about risk. I apply the model to an illustrative dataset of subjects' perceived mortality risk and willingness to accept the risk of nuclear-waste transport. I estimate the model using Lewbel's (2000) strictly exogenous regressor approach to account for endogeneity bias and measurement error. Subjects display aversion to both risk and uncertainty about the risk of a transport accident, so that increases in either leads to social-welfare losses. Roughly 12% of the external cost of nuclear-waste transport is attributable to the public's uncertainty about transport risk.     

Adaptive resource management and the value of information

The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time.