Resilience to natural hazards: How useful is this concept?

Resilience is widely seen as a desirable system property in environmental management. This paper explores the concept of resilience to natural hazards, using weather-related hazards in coastal megacities as an example. The paper draws on the wide literature on megacities, coastal hazards, hazard risk reduction strategies, and resilience within environmental management. Some analysts define resilience as a system attribute, whilst others use it as an umbrella concept for a range of system attributes deemed desirable. These umbrella concepts have not been made operational to support planning or management. It is recommended that resilience only be used in a restricted sense to describe specific system attributes concerning (i) the amount of disturbance a system can absorb and still remain within the same state or domain of attraction and (ii) the degree to which the system is capable of self-organisation. The concept of adaptive capacity, which has emerged in the context of climate change, can then be adopted as the umbrella concept, where resilience will be one factor influencing adaptive capacity. This improvement to conceptual clarity would foster much-needed communication between the natural hazards and the climate change communities and, more importantly, offers greater potential in application, especially when attempting to move away from disaster recovery to hazard prediction, disaster prevention, and preparedness.     

Public orders and personal opinions: household strategies for hurricane risk assessment

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between household evacuation decisions and official emergency management practices in light of recent increases in the availability and diversity of hurricane-related information. While we focus on Hurricane Floyd in South Carolina, we incorporate findings of our longitudinal research effort covering the last four years and six post-1995 hurricane threats to the state. While only 64% of residents in the mandatory evacuation zone complied with the Hurricane Floyd evacuation order, over 80% agreed that calling an evacuation was an appropriate precautionary response given the uncertainties of the storm. Longitudinal surveys indicate that Horry County residents have developed a fairly robust strategy in making evacuation decisions. This “hurricane savvy” population depends more heavily on individuals' assessments of risks than on official orders. Individual assessment practices differ from official orders in that greater weight is given to household circumstances and preferences, the diligent monitoring of a variety of information sources, and the incorporation of past experiences into the decision-making process. Surveys indicate differences between the general public and officials in terms of priorities and preferences about hurricane evacuations. The public demands more information about the hurricane threat. Officials place more emphasis on planning evacuation routes and public safety measures.     

Metal accumulation risks in regularly flooded and non-flooded parts of floodplains of the River Rhine: Extractability and exposure through the food chain

Ecotoxicological risks of sediment contamination in floodplains are supposed to be highest in the regularly flooded parts. Therefore, in risk assessments, the non-flooded parts are neglected or considered to be reference areas. We investigated the metal extractability and levels in important food sources for vertebrates, viz. grass shoots and earthworms, in flooded as well as non-flooded parts and compared these with total metal concentrations. A comparison of these areas in the moderately polluted ‘Afferdensche en Deestsche Waarden’ floodplains along the River Rhine showed that total Zn, Pb, and Cd concentrations were highest in the regularly flooded parts. However, CaCl₂-extractable Zn concentrations were highest in non-flooded areas, and those of Pb and Cd were equal in both areas. Total Cu concentrations were not significantly different between the two areas, but CaCl₂-extractable Cu concentrations were highest in the regularly flooded areas. The metal concentrations in grass shoots of non-flooded areas were equal to (Zn, Cu, Cd) or higher than (Pb) those in regularly flooded areas. Zn concentrations in earthworms in regularly flooded areas were higher, but concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Cd were not. Ecotoxicological risk assessments require analysis of the total and potentially bioavailable metal concentrations in soils as well as concentrations in biota. This study shows that the less contaminated non-flooded areas in moderately polluted floodplains cannot be neglected in metal accumulation studies and cannot be used as pristine reference areas.     

遥感与GIS在蝗虫生境研究中的应用进展

蝗虫生境是蝗虫赖以生活、生存的环境。利用遥感技术获取与蝗虫密切相关的各种生境因子,并结合GIS技术研究和阐明蝗虫的生境因子对东亚飞蝗的产卵、孵化、成虫、迁飞等生育周期的影响机理,是实现对蝗虫监测、预测预警的基础。文章首先分析了各种蝗虫生境因子对蝗虫发生的影响机理,认为这些生境因子对蝗灾发生的影响不是孤立地起作用的,仅靠单个生境因子进行蝗灾的预测是不全面的,而遥感和GIS技术方便的获取、管理和分析多种生境因子数据,在大尺度蝗灾发生监测和预警中起到不可替代的作用。通过对遥感与GIS在蝗虫的不同发育阶段（蝗卵发育阶段、蝗蝻发育阶段和成虫阶段）的应用及其进展的分析,认为对蝗虫不同生育阶段的遥感监测需采用不同的参数和技术才能达到更好的效果,最后提出了遥感与GIS在蝗虫生境监测方面的未来发展方向。     

Occupational injury and accident research: A comprehensive review

In this paper, a comprehensive review of the concepts of occupational injury and accident causation and prevention is presented. Starting with hazard identification, the issues on risk assessment, accident causation, and intervention strategies are discussed progressively. The distinctiveness and overlaps in accident and injury research are highlighted. Both empirical research in terms of hypotheses tested and theoretical research such as accident causation models are compared and contrasted. Finally, based on the critical appraisal of the comprehensive review, future research directions on occupational injury research are delineated.     

Dynamic risk assessment of oil spill scenario for Three Gorges Reservoir in China based on numerical simulation

A novel method for dynamic risk assessment of oil spill accidents based on numerical simulation was presented in this paper. The dynamic risk assessment model was developed consisting of a comprehensive list of caused consequences like environmental damage, asset loss, health impact and social effect as well as emergency actions preventing these losses. Contributing events in the Mater Logic Diagram (MLD) of the dynamic risk assessment model were valued based on the simulated evolvement of oil contaminants under spill scenario on quasi-static fluid, which was obtained by coupling an oil spill model with hydrodynamic module in Jialing river of Three Gorges Reservoir in China after the impoundment of the reservoir to 175 m water level in 2010. Calculated result of dynamic risk as grade IV indicated that the assessed oil spill was not as catastrophic as we thought because of the slow transport of oil fractions on water surface and absence of dispersed oil in water body due to the quasi-static fluid, very gentle wind and effective emergency actions, as well as by the reason that rare agriculture or industrial crops exist in spill adjacent area.     

Handling and updating uncertain information in bow-tie analysis

Bow-tie analysis is a fairly new concept in risk assessment that can describe the relationships among different risk control parameters, such as causes, hazards and consequences to mitigate the likelihood of occurrence of unwanted events in an industrial system. It also facilitates the performance of quantitative risk analysis for an unwanted event providing a detailed investigation starting from basic causes to final consequences. The credibility of quantitative evaluation of the bow-tie is still a major concern since uncertainty, due to limited or missing data, often restricts the performance of analysis. The utilization of expert knowledge often provides an alternative for such a situation. However, it comes at the cost of possible uncertainties related to incompleteness (partial ignorance), imprecision (subjectivity), and lack of consensus (if multiple expert judgments are used). Further, if the bow-tie analysis is not flexible enough to incorporate new knowledge or evidence, it may undermine the purpose of risk assessment.Fuzzy set and evidence theory are capable of characterizing the uncertainty associated with expert knowledge. To minimize the overall uncertainty, fusing the knowledge of multiple experts and updating prior knowledge with new evidence are equally important in addition to addressing the uncertainties in the knowledge. This paper proposes a methodology to characterize the uncertainties, aggregate knowledge and update prior knowledge or evidence, if new data become available for the bow-tie analysis. A case study comprising a bow-tie for a typical offshore process facility has also been developed to describe the utility of this methodology in an industrial environment.     

基于ArcGIS Engine设计天然气管道泄漏事故后果评估系统

城市天然气管道是城市不可缺少的基础设施之一,为有效遏制天然气管道事故造成的重大灾害,需加强对应急救援系统的研究。选取高斯模型分析泄漏的天然气的扩散过程,并划分事故后果评估区域。利用ArcGIS Engine平台,设计并建立一个城市天然气管道泄漏事故的应急救援系统。利用该系统可模拟天然气管道泄漏后可能发生的气体扩散、火灾、爆炸等事故后果,通过天然气理化参数、天然气泄漏的初始状态和周围环境的气象条件,以可视化方式直观显示不同等级的事故后果评估缓冲区。     

驾驶行为模型的研究进展

驾驶员行为模型的研究对于预测和干预驾驶员的风险行为、设计相关的道路安全设施与车内设备,以及制定交通法律法规等具有重要的意义。为了解和掌握学术界关于驾驶行为模型的研究进展,搜集、筛选和归纳了1960—2010年被SCI数据库索引的相关文章,将驾驶行为模型分类为描述性模型、信息处理模型、动机模型、计划行为理论(TPB)和躯体标识假设,并对每种模型进行评述和总结,理清这些模型间的内在联系。研究发现,现有各模型只是从某个角度研究驾驶员行为的部分特征,而不能解释驾驶员的全部行为。今后应不断完善和整合各类模型,并借鉴心理学、生理学和行为科学等相关领域的理论、知识,使驾驶行为模型变得更为实用、有效。     

校园突发事件中大学生信息传播行为偏好研究

在校园突发事件中,大学生作为直接受影响方,既是危机信息的接受者,又是其传播者。大学生在突发事件情景下的信息传播行为受多方面因素影响,通过对上海、北京、广州等城市9所高等院校的303名在校大学生的问卷调查,利用离散选择模型识别影响大学生危机信息传播行为的主要因素,并预测其在传播决策、信息内容、传播对象和传播渠道上的选择概率。研究结果表明,一旦校园突发事件发生,大学生对外进行信息传播的行为是不可避免的,校方对突发事件信息的披露程度和对危机的处置措施将影响其信息传播的内容和渠道偏好。