基于系统仿真模拟的三峡库区生态承载力分区动态评价

针对现有生态承载力评价研究中时间动态性、空间差异性考虑不足等问题,引入系统动力学(SD)模型,围绕生态承载力关键指标实施三峡库区分单元的系统仿真模拟和预测,整合生态承载力综合评价方法,对不同控制单元承载力状况进行动态评价. 结果表明:①2010年三峡库区生态承载力指数为0.55,为弱可承载状态. 生态承载力限制因素分析显示,长江嘉陵江重庆市辖区控制单元、长江涪陵区万州区控制单元主要受制于资源、环境要素,其他3个控制单元(澎溪河开县控制单元、长江云阳县巫山县控制单元、长江恩施州宜昌市控制单元)主要受制于社会、经济要素. ②现有发展趋势下,2010—2025年三峡库区生态承载力指数为0.48~0.57,呈先增后减的趋势,拐点出现在2015年附近,整体亦处于弱可承载状态. 2015年后,以资源、环境为主要限制因素的2个控制单元生态承载力指数开始逐年下降;以社会、经济为主要限制因素的其他3个控制单元生态承载力指数则呈延续上升态势. ③综合调控方案下,三峡库区生态承载力指数在2015年达到0.60,由弱可承载提升为基本可承载;至2018年,所有控制单元均达到基本可承载,生态承载力指数为0.60~0.76. 可见,综合调控方案对各控制单元人口、经济、环境、资源因素的调控行之有效.      

基于GA-BP-SD模型的生态环境质量综合评价

近年来,中国小城镇生态环境质量恶化趋势明显,同时相应的综合评价研究也逐步深入.针对生态环境质量综合评价问题,建造了GA-BP-SD模型.它对反向传播神经网络初始权值和阀值用遗传算法优化,并将隶属度引入遗传神经网络,以便确定生态环境质量的影响因子和程度.用此模型对小城镇生态环境质量进行了综合评价和探索,结果说明该方法是适合中国小城镇进行生态环境质量评价方法的.     

Use of different signaling modalities to communicate status by dominant and subordinate Heermann’s kangaroo rats (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Dipodomys heermanni</Emphasis>)

Dominance relationships in solitary species may be an important factor in the maintenance of long-term, stable relationships among territorial neighbors. We examined the mediation of intraspecific interactions in a solitary, territorial kangaroo rat, Dipodomys heermanni, and tested whether unfamiliar kangaroo rats establish a dominance hierarchy and then decrease aggression and increase communication (via footdrumming and sandbathing) after initial interactions and the establishment of a social structure. Results revealed that both dominance hierarchies and familiarization with particular individuals are likely to mediate social interactions. After only one pairing per dyad, an almost linear dominance hierarchy emerged, which became perfectly linear after a 90-min familiarization period. During the course of subsequent interactions between dyad partners, fighting decreased and non-agonistic communication increased. Dominant kangaroo rats sandbathed at higher rates than subordinates, possibly to deposit scent to advertise competitive ability, whereas subordinate kangaroo rats footdrummed from inside the burrow, which seemed to indicate an unwillingness to interact. We suggest the kangaroo rats use a conditional strategy when deciding to fight (be dominant) or withdraw (be subordinate) by employing different modes to communicate status and minimize the potential risk of injury during unnecessarily prolonged fights.     

Species,population and individual specific odors in urine of mole rats (Spalax ehrenbergi) detected by laboratory rats

Summary Urine odors from 4 species of blind subterranean mole rats belonging to theSpalax ehrenbergi superspecies in Israel were evaluated to determine whether there were discriminable differences in the odors that were specific to different individuals, populations, and species of mole rats. Trained laboratory rats assessed these differences in an automated olfactometer using an operant conditioning paradigm. They demonstrated the discriminability of the urine odors in the 3 categories by their correct responses in generalization trials. These characteristic species, population and individual odors may provide these solitary, territorial and blind rodents a means for diverse chemical communication in spacing behavior, reproduction, species isolation and speciation.     

组织因素对飞行员不安全行为的干预策略研究

为了对飞行员的不安全行为进行科学有效的管理,挖掘组织因素带来的深层影响,防止因飞行员不安全行为造成的不安全事件发生,运用系统动力学方法,构建组织因素对飞行员不安全行为的干预策略模型。以S航空公司为研究对象,通过调节组织因素中的飞行技术训练力度和奖惩力度等变量,制定不同的干预策略,运用VENSIM软件模拟不同干预策略的干预结果。研究结果表明:飞行员不安全行为的最佳干预策略组合为安全记录考核奖励程度、副驾驶转正/机长升职力度、监管力度、罚款力度、飞行技术训练强度的组合,到2020年实现不安全行为数量平均降低26%,在2020年改变干预策略数值,到2030年实现不安全行为数量平均降低54%。     

Teratogenicity of bifenox and nitrofen in rodents

Abstract

The teratogenicity of the diphenyl ether herbicide bifenox [2,4‐dichlorophenyl 3'‐carboxymethyl‐4'‐nitrophenyl ether] was compared to that of nitrofen [2,4‐dichlorophenyl 4'‐nitrophenyl ether] in rats and in mice. Neither compound increased prenatal mortality in mice. Because nitrofen causes both malformations that are compatible with survival to weaning and a high incidence of perinatal (but not of fetal) mortality, emphasis was placed on postnatal parameters of bifenox toxicity. In rats, bifenox caused a low incidence of “bloody tears”;, but it did not decrease survival to term or to weaning in rats or mice, and did not reduce Harderian gland weight in mice. Because the weight of the Harderian glands is a more objective measure of their status than is the presence of an eye discharge, it is concluded that bifenox is not teratogenic at the levels administered. Nitrofen decreased litter size, pup weight, and Harderian gland weight in mice.     

地铁车站暴雨内涝应急响应投入策略研究*

为准确高效地开展地铁车站暴雨内涝应急响应活动,增强应对暴雨内涝灾害的救援能力,采用SHEL系统模型识别响应效能影响因素,分析各影响因素之间的相互作用机制,研究如何协调各个因素的投入比例,以达到响应效能最优,利用Vensim软件,结合成都地铁11号线相关数据进行模拟仿真。研究结果表明:应急响应活动存在明显阶段性特征,应急响应活动前期应保证救援人员快速到场,中期应特别注重提高救援指挥机构决策效率,后期更应关注硬件配置,且在应急响应活动全过程中持续保证人员与其他各界面的动态匹配。研究结果可为应对暴雨内涝灾害提供参考。     

我国竹鼠养殖现状与发展对策

通过介绍我国竹鼠养殖现状,分析了我国竹鼠养殖业存在的主要问题,论述了我国竹鼠养殖业的发展对策.     

Impact of chlorpyrifos on cerebrum and cerebellum maturity in suckling rats

The purpose of our study is to assess the effect of chlorpyrifos (CPF) on rat cerebral and cerebellar maturity during the suckling period. Female Wistar rats were given 0.2?g?L^?1 of CPF in drinking water, equivalent to 40?mg?kg^?1 of body weight?day^?1, from day zero until day ten after delivery. In treated pups, plasma butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE) activity was inhibited by 70%. Cerebrum and cerebellum acetyl-cholinesterase (AchE) activities were reduced by 71 and 75%, respectively. The results suggest that CPF was distributed in pup tissues through the milk of lactating mothers, resulting in inhibition of AchE activities. At age 10 days, the CPF-treated pups showed a 28% decrease in body weight, a 23 and 41% decrease in plasma free T₃ and T₄ levels and reduction in cerebral and cerebellar protein content by 36 and 38%, respectively. Consistent histological changes were found in the cerebellum of CPF treated pups, with the external granular layer being markedly developed, the Purkinje cell bodies being poorly differentiated and abnormally distributed into the internal granular layer.     

Protective role of L-ascorbic acid against cypermethrin-induced oxidative stress and lipid peroxidation in Wistar rats

Cypermethrin is a synthetic pyrethroid insecticide used for pest control in agriculture and as an acaricide in man and animals. This study was undertaken with the objective to investigate the propensity of cypermethrin to induce oxidative stress in rats following repetitive dermal exposure and its possible attenuation by L-ascorbic acid. Results obtained showed that cypermethrin significantly (p < 0.05) increased malonaldehyde levels, activity of catalase in rat erythrocytes and plasma protein levels. Whereas, activities of glutathione (GSH), glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px), and superoxide dismutase (SOD) were significantly (p < 0.05) reduced in the cypermethrin exposed rats as compared to the control. Supplementation of L-ascorbic acid in cypermethrin-exposed rats decreased lipid peroxidation of erythrocytes, total plasma protein and catalase activity significantly (p < 0.05) compared to non-cypermethrin-exposed group. However, L-ascorbic acid did not alleviate the negative effects of cypermethrin on the activities of SOD and GSH. This study revealed that the presence of L-ascorbic acid diminishes the adverse effects of cypermethrin on some oxidative stress parameters.