煤炭企业安全投资保障机制及其系统动力学分析

针对我国目前煤炭企业安全投资保障中所面临的问题,构建了"多方制约、良性互动"的煤炭企业安全投资保障机制,并从该机制各方"互赢"和制约性出发,将政府的安全监察、煤炭行业协会的安全预防、保险公司的安全保险对煤炭企业安全投资的保障作用进行了分析。然后,根据系统动力学(SD)原理,对其动力学特点进行了系统分析和论证。在此基础上,建立了煤炭企业安全投资保障机制的SD模型,并寻求保证煤炭企业一定收益水平的安全投资水平,以改善和优化煤炭企业安全投资保障行为的机会和途径,为综合评价煤炭企业安全投资保障机制运行效果提供了一种思路。     

In vivo and in vitro metabolism of tobacco-specific nitrosamine, 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK), by the freshwater planarian, Dugesia japonica

Cigarette smoke is a risk factor for human health, and many studies were conducted to investigate its adverse effects on humans and other mammals. However, since large amounts of cigarette products are produced and consumed, it is possible that tobacco chemicals can end up in aquatic environments through several routes, thus influencing aquatic organisms. In this study, the presence of tobacco-specific nitrosamine (TSNA), 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK), in aquatic environment was demonstrated. Since toxic effects on and distribution patterns of tobacco chemicals in aquatic organisms were rarely studied, after results of an acute toxicity pretest were obtained, experiment was conducted to investigate the bioaccumulation pattern of NNK and distribution patterns of its metabolites, mainly 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol (NNAL), in NNK-treated freshwater planarians, Dugesia japonica. Results from in vivo and in vitro studies showed that NNK was readily converted to NNAL through the carbonyl reduction in bodies of NNK-treated planarians. Tissue concentrations of both chemicals increased in time- and dose-dependent manners. Furthermore, we examined the end products of NNK/NNAL α-hydroxylation in NNK-treated planarians, but only 1-(3-pyridyl)-1,4-butanediol was detected, suggesting that NNK metabolism in planarians partially differs from that in mammalian systems. This is the first report on NNK metabolism in an aquatic organism and can be used as a foundation for developing freshwater planarians as a new in vivo model for the study of NNK toxicology in the future.     

Long-term toxicology and carcinogenicity of 2,4,6-trichlorophenol

Carcinogenesis bioassays were conducted by giving 2,4,6-trichlorophenol [2,4,6-TCP] in feed to groups of 50 male and female Fischer rats and male B6C3F1 mice for two years. Dietary concentrations were 0 [20/group], 5000 [0.5%], or 10,000 [1%] ppm. Female mice began with 10,000 and 20,000 ppm but after 38 weeks were lowered due to reduced body weights to 2500 and 5000 ppm for 67 weeks; exposures averaged 5200 and 10,400 ppm. Adverse effects at two years were leukocytosis and monocytosis of peripheral blood and hyperplasia of bone marrow in both sexes of rats. In mice, liver toxicity, including individual liver cell abnormalities, focal areas of cellular alteration, and focal and nodular areas of hyperplasia were commonly present. Regarding carcinogenic activity, TCP caused leukemias/lymphomas in male rats, and possibly in female rats and female mice as well, and induced liver tumors in male and female mice. Using NTP categories of evidence indicates ‘clear evidence of carcinogenicity’ for male rats [hematopoietic system tumors]; ‘equivocal evidence of carcinogenicity’ for female rats [hematopoietic system tumors]; ‘clear evidence of carcinogenicity’ for male and female mice [liver tumors].     

北京密云水库地区可持续发展模式研究

本文利用系统分析方法剖析了密云社会经济系统特征 ,构建了密云可持续发展系统动力学模型 ,进而设计了三种不同发展模式 ,并将其在模型上仿真运行 ,通过对三种方案的模拟结果比较 ,从中优选出一个经济和环境协调发展的综合方案 ,为决策者提供科学的决策依据     

基于系统动力学的安全生产监管有效性研究

为改善我国安全生产监管的效果,研究引入激励性监管措施后的安全生产监管效果。运用系统动力学(SD)建模方法,对比单用约束性监管措施的效果与综合运用约束性监管措施和激励性监管措施的效果。研究结果表明:单独使用约束性监管措施时,提高检查罚金和事故赔偿额,会使企业净收益、政府与企业的净收益总和增加。然而,综合使用约束性监管措施和激励性监管措施时,企业的净收益额增加,政府的净收益额减少,而企业与政府的净收益总额变化不大,但结合对事故负外部性的考虑,通常会使社会福利额外提高。     

Assessment of the small modular reactor (SMR) marketing using modified network dynamics-based system dynamics (SD) method

Following the export success of the South Korean small modular reactor (SMR), it has been investigated for the marketing strategy of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The information feedback oriented method for the social-business matters, system dynamics (SD), is applied to the assessment of the marketing strategy in which the forecasting skills are performed. Each element has the Boolean value as 0 or 1 in which the values are selected by the random number generation. If the generated values are higher than the designed value decided by the operator, it is 1. Otherwise, it is 0. The networking based dynamical modeling is discussed. The modification of the linear networking is changed by the SD algorithm where the feedback and multiple connections are added to the original network dynamics theory. This new method has shown the complexity of the marketing strategy, especially for the NPPs.     

Sub-chronic oral toxicity of acetamiprid in Wistar rats

Acetamiprid is a neoncotinoid insecticide that acts as an agonist to the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor used as insecticide in crops and to control fleas on dogs and cats. The objectives of this study are (1) to evaluate the sub-chronic toxicity of orally administered acetamiprid, (2) to estimate the tissue residue levels and (3) to assess the reactive oxygen species induction in Wistar rats. Clinical signs of toxicity and changes in the haematological parameters were not observed in the acetamiprid-treated groups. Biochemically, increases in the levels of alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, cholesterol and decreases in body weight, feed consumption, reduced glutathione, catalase, superoxide dismutase, glutathione peroxidase, and AchE were observed. Lipid peroxidation was increased in liver and kidney. Acetamiprid residues persisted in liver, kidney, spleen, muscles, brain, fat and histopathology revealed lesions in the liver. The no observable adverse effect level of acetamiprid was found to be ≤55 mg/kg body weight.     

Changes in hematological profile of male albino rats after acephate administration

The present study was designed to evaluate the possible adverse effects of acephate, an organophosphate insecticide, on hematological parameters in male albino rats. Acephate was administered orally to rats at either 25, 50, or 75 mg/kg bwt/day for 30 days. Data showed a significant decrease in total erythrocyte count, hemoglobin concentration, and hematocrit value; however, an increase in total leukocyte count was noted. The levels of blood sugar and blood urea were significantly elevated when administered by acephate. There were no significant changes in mean corpuscular hemoglobin, mean corpuscular volume, and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration for all doses. Thus, obtained results collectively revealed that acephate administration produced significant alterations in hematological parameters in dose-dependent manner.     

The protective potential of Nitraria retusa on penconazole-induced hepatic injury in adult rats

The protective effect of Nitraria retusa fruit extract against hepatotoxicity induced by penconazole at a dose of 67 mg/kg body weight given intraperitoneally every two days to male Wistar rats was investigated. Penconazole exposure increased malondialdehyde, hydrogen peroxide, and advanced oxidation protein product levels. Hepatic biomarkers as well as enzymatic (catalase, superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase) and nonenzymatic (vitamin C, non-protein thiols and metallothioneins) antioxidant status were also altered. Treatment with N. retusa extract improved all parameters cited above. Liver histological studies confirmed the biochemical parameters. These results provide a scientific basis for the use of N. retusa fruit against hepatotoxicity.     

基于警源-压力-预警能力的城市公共危机预警研究

为提高城市公共危机系统预警能力,基于耶克斯-多德森(Yerkes-Dodson)定律构建该系统警源-压力-预警能力的概念模型,分析警源、压力、预警能力三者间的关系,进而提出警源-压力-预警能力的系统动力学(SD)模型,并利用Vensim PLE仿真软件进行案例模拟分析,最后结合仿真结果从系统内外2个维度探讨提高城市公共危机系统预警能力的应对策略。结果表明:警源和压力是城市公共危机系统预警能力的2个主要影响因素。建立健全相关法律体系和改善危机系统"周边环境",减小外部警源到达率;完善预警机制和加强防范管理,提高系统内部鲁棒性,能够提高城市公共危机系统预警能力。