Generation of Monthly Precipitation Under Climate Change for the Upper Blue Nile River Basin,Ethiopia1

Abstract: This work develops a methodology to project the future precipitation in large river basins under limited data and climate change while preserving the historical temporal and spatial characteristics. The computationally simple and reliable conditional generation method (CGM) is presented and applied to generate reliable monthly precipitation data in the upper Blue Nile River Basin of Ethiopia where rain‐fed agriculture is prevalent. The results showed that the temporal analysis with the CGM performs better to reproduce the historical long‐term characteristics than other methods, and the spatial analysis with the CGM reproduced the historical spatial structure accurately. A 100‐year time series analysis using the outcomes of the six general circulation models showed that precipitation changes by the 2050s (2040 through 2069) can be ?7 to 28% with a mean increase of about 11%. The seasonal results showed increasing wet conditions in all seasons with changes of mean precipitation of 5, 47, and 6% for wet, dry, and mild seasons, respectively.     

Management of basiphilous dune slack communities in relation to carbonate accumulation and hydrological conditions

In dune slacks in The Netherlands, a decline of rare mesotrophic basiphilous plant species and their plant communities has been observed in combination with an increase of more productive systems with common, taller acidophilous plant species. This has been attributed to both natural and anthropogenic changes. In a humid climate with a precipitation surplus, as in The Netherlands, the calcium carbonate content of a calcareous soil increases with depth. However, soils in coastal dune slacks, may have a higher carbonate content in the topsoil horizon than in the underlying layers. Carbonates which buffer the pH can prolong the presence of mesotrophic basiphilous plant communities which are of high conservation value. To explain the occurrence of calcareous surface horizons in dune slacks, hydrological and micromorphological analyses were carried out in three dune slacks. Two slacks are situated on the Wadden Sea islands in the northern part of The Netherlands; one on Schiermonnikoog and one on Texel. The third slack is situated in the dunes on the island of Goeree in the southwestern part of The Netherlands. In all three slacks, carbonate occurs as mollusc and gastropod fragments (silt- or sand-sized) and as micritic nodules in the topsoil layer, due to aeolian deposition and sedimentation by water.In situ carbonate accumulation (calcitans and calcareous crusts) due to CO₂ release in inundated and/or capillary rise of calcareous groundwater near, or at the soil surface. Accumulation of carbonate also occurs as a result of biological activity by algae in the topsoil of the Goeree site. In general, hydrological processes maintaining high levels of calcareous groundwater are a prerequisite for the maintenance of high carbonate levels in topsoils. Such levels are necessary for the conservation and management of basiphilous pioneer vegetation.     

鸭绿江（丹东段）江水中未知有机污染物分析鉴定与有毒有机物名录筛选

采用美国惠普公司MC/GS联用仪,对鸭绿江（丹东段）江水中有机污染物种类、组成进行了分析鉴定,进而采用高压液相色谱法对多环芳烃类进行定量测定与评价,进行了该江段有毒有机物名录筛选,提出由27种有毒有机污染物组成的名单。     

循环流化床锅炉烟气脱硫除尘技术改造

对承德市热电厂CG35／3．82－MX型循环流化术锅炉的脱硫除尘系统进行了改造,解决了原水膜除尘器效率低,烟法排放严重超标的问题,取得了良好的环境效益,社会效益和经济效益。     

污水土地处理CAD系统设计

针对污水土地处理设计实际,以提高设计速度和质量为目标,结合计算机辅助设计技术和软件技术的发展,采用成熟而先进的参数化设计技术及ADS开发工具,对土地处理设计中的几个关系问题进行了探讨。     

1976-2005年唐山地区降水变化规律及干旱预测

利用唐山市1976-2005年各县年降水序列,分析了该市降水的空间分布规律和时间变化特点。采用灰色系统的灾变预测方法,对各县分别建立了GM（1,1）模型,进行未来25年唐山市各站的干旱年预测。利用残差检验、后验差检验和关联度检验对各模型分别进行了精度检验。结果表明,预测模型精度较高,可以对唐山市各县未来的干旱年进行预测,从而为科学决策提供依据。     

水环境监测信息集成、共享与决策支持平台构建

以水环境监测数据可靠传输交换与集成、信息规范化处理分析、高效共享与决策支持为应用主线,对水环境监测信息集成、共享与决策支持平台的建设目标、总体架构、主要功能进行了研究,设计了平台的总体架构及主要功能,以实现涉水部门水环境信息的采集、传输、交换、存储、分析、发布、共享、展现等,为环境管理与决策人员、为公众、为各级(国家级流域级省级地市级县级)环境监测业务人员提供信息支撑。     

大数据解析技术在大气环境监测中的应用研究

针对近年来新兴的大数据及挖掘、分析技术,对大数据解析技术在环境科学研究中的应用进行了分析和探析。以城市局部地区大气细颗粒污染物PM2.5浓度计算为例,筛选了PM2.5浓度历史数据、气象条件、交通状况、人群活动情况、网格道路状况等数据为影响特征量,分析了用神经网络法进行大数据解析和推演的原理和数学过程,是用数学、计算机、统计等方法研究解决多元、非线性复杂环境问题的一种新的探索。     

Spatial modelling of the probability of obtaining a detectable concentration of ammonia in Moreton Bay, Australia

Ammonia is an important water quality variable, which in excess, can be detrimental to waterways and their ecosystems. In the Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program in South-east Queensland ammonia is monitored monthly, however, often more than 50% of the ammonia observations in Moreton Bay are below detection limit, making it difficult to draw useful inferences. In this paper a clipped Gaussian random field is used to spatially model and map the probability of detectable concentration of ammonia. The methodology is applied to the Moreton Bay samples collected in February 2005. The results suggest that for this month the oceanic impacted areas have higher probability of detectable ammonia concentration than the areas closer to the main sources of anthropogenic inputs.     

岛津TNP-4110在线分析仪的日常维护

从数据比对、硬件维护两个方面探讨岛津TNP-4110在线仪的日常维护问题。通过分析各种干扰因素来查找造成数据比对差异的原因并提出相应解决措施。在仪器日常维护上设立不同周期保养计划、共享设备维护经验,结合实践制定了合适的检修流程图。