除草剂苯噻草胺土壤滞留因子的蒙特卡洛模拟

采用简单随机抽样和拉丁超立方抽样两种不同方法对除草剂苯噻草胺的土壤滞留因子模型进行蒙特卡洛模拟。结果表明，不同的土壤条件下，苯噻草胺的滞留因子（R）的数值呈Beta分布，最大极值为176．5，最小极值为3．3，最可能的取值在20－30的范围内。结果还显示了采用拉丁超立方抽样方法能够显著降低抽样的不均匀性，进而能降低Beta分布拟合的不确定性。本文还通过色轴在4维图上形象地表征了R值的变化。     

一维河流水质模拟研究

根据对流扩散方程推导一维河流水质动态和稳态模型，在此基础上导出多河段一维河流水质模拟（动态和稳态）矩阵公式．在乌鲁木齐地区水磨河上分别对所建模型进行了检验并对检验结果作了简要讨论。     

通风廊道在城市环境总体规划中的应用——以长吉新区为例

研究基于城市环境总体规划的顶层设计,将通风廊道作为环境空间管控的重要组成,通过采用模拟风场、河流水网、遥感解译等多种方法,对规划建设区域的自然属性进行分析,识别和绘制了长吉示范区"两轴五带"的通风廊道体系,并进一步在空间上提出环境管理的要求,期望在城市环境规划上为改善城市空气质量提供科学依据。     

Modelling the responses of wildlife to human disturbance: An evaluation of alternative management scenarios for black-crowned night-herons

The impact of anthropogenic disturbance on wildlife is increasing becoming a source of concern as the popularity of outdoor recreation rises. There is now more pressure on site managers to simultaneously ensure the continued persistence of wildlife and provide recreational opportunities. Using ‘Simulation of Disturbance Activities’, a model designed to investigate the impact of recreational disturbance on wildlife, we demonstrate how a simulation modelling approach can effectively inform such management decisions. As an example, we explored the implications of various design and management options for a proposed recreational area containing a historic breeding bird colony. By manipulating the proximity, orientation and intensity of recreation, we were able to evaluate the impact of recreational activities on the behaviour of black-crowned night-heron nestlings (Nycticorax nycticorax). Using a classification and regression tree (CART) procedure to analyse simulation output, we explored the dynamics of multiple strategies in concert. Our analysis revealed that there are inherent advantages in implementing multiple strategies as opposed to any single strategy. Nestlings were not disturbed by recreation when bird-watching facility placement (proximity and orientation) and type were considered in combination. In comparison, proximity alone only led to a <10% reduction in disturbance. Thus we demonstrate how simulation models based on customised empirical data can bridge the gap between field studies and active management, enabling users to test novel management scenarios that are otherwise logistically difficult. Furthermore, such models potentially have broad application in understanding human-wildlife interactions (e.g. exploring the implications of roads on wildlife, probability of bird strikes around airports, etc.). They therefore represent a valuable decision-making tool in the ecological design of urban infrastructures.     

A simulation framework for water allocation to meet the environmental requirements of urban rivers: model development and a case study for the Liming River in Daqing City,China

In this paper, we describe the development of a simulation framework for allocating water from different sources to meet the environmental flows of an urban river. The model permits the development of a rational balance in the utilization of storm water, reclaimed water from wastewater treatment plants, and freshwater from reservoirs with consideration of the limited capacities of different water resources. It is designed to permit the full utilization of unconventional water sources for the restoration of river water quality by increasing river flow and improving water quality. To demonstrate practical use of the model, a case study is presented in which the model was used to simulate the environmental water allocation for the Liming River in Daqing City, China, based on the three water sources mentioned above. The results demonstrate that the model provides an effective approach for helping managers allocate water to satisfy the river’s environmental water requirements.     

板料成形过程数值模拟中的动态接触条件处理

为了解决板料成形过程数值模拟中非线性边界条件问题,本文提出并建立了控制约束的描述方法、接触结点、确定的新方法——垂足法、计算接触应力的剪应力法、以及处理非线性滑动接触边界条件的降阶-摩擦载荷迭代法.经实际模拟计算,证明了这些方法的正确性.     

Methodology for Developing Flood Rule Curves Conditioned on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Classification1

Lee, Se‐Yeun, Alan F. Hamlet, Carolyn J. Fitzgerald, and Stephen J. Burges, 2011. Methodology for Developing Flood Rule Curves Conditioned on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Classification. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):81‐92. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00490.x Abstract: Regional climate varies on interannual and decadal time scales that in turn affect annual streamflows, flood risks, and reservoir storage deficits in mid‐summer. However, these variable elements of the climate system are generally not included in water resources operating policies that attempt to preserve a balance between flood risk and other water resources system objectives. A methodology for incorporating El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) information in designing flood control curves is investigated. An optimization‐simulation procedure is used to develop a set of ENSO‐conditioned flood control rule curves that relate streamflow forecasts to flood control evacuation requirements. ENSO‐conditioned simulated flood risk and storage deficits under current operating policy are used to calibrate a unique objective function for each ENSO classification. Using a case study for the Columbia River Basin, we demonstrate that ENSO‐conditioned flood control curves constructed using the optimization‐simulation procedure consistently reduce storage deficits at a number of interrelated projects without increasing flood risk. For the Columbia Basin, the overall improvements in reservoir operations are relatively modest, and (in isolation) might not motivate a restructuring of flood control operations. However, the technique is widely applicable to a wide range of water resources systems and/or different climate indices.     

The MONICA model: Testing predictability for crop growth, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics

A fundamentally revised version of the HERMES agro-ecosystem model, released under the name of MONICA, was calibrated and tested to predict crop growth, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics for various experimental crop rotations across Germany, including major cereals, sugar beet and maize. The calibration procedure also included crops grown experimentally under elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The calibrated MONICA simulations yielded a median normalised mean absolute error (nMAE) of 0.20 across all observed target variables (n = 42) and a median Willmott's Index of Agreement (d) of 0.91 (median modelling efficiency (ME): 0.75). Although the crop biomass, habitus and soil moisture variables were all within an acceptable range, the model often underperformed for variables related to nitrogen. Uncalibrated MONICA simulations yielded a median nMAE of 0.27 across all observed target variables (n = 85) and a median d of 0.76 (median ME: 0.30), also showing predominantly acceptable results for the crop biomass, habitus and soil moisture variables. Based on the convincing performance of the model under uncalibrated conditions, MONICA can be regarded as a suitable simulation model for use in regional applications. Furthermore, its ability to reproduce the observed crop growth results in free-air carbon enrichment experiments makes it suited to predict agro-ecosystem behaviour under expected future climate conditions.     

A review of the technology and applications of methods for evaluating the transport of air pollutants

A variety of methods based on air quality models, including tracer methods, the brute-force method (BFM), decoupled direct method (DDM), high-order decoupled direct method (HDDM), response surface models (RSMs) and so on forth, have been widely used to study the transport of air pollutants. These methods have good applicability for the transport of air pollutants with simple formation mechanisms. However, differences in research conclusions on secondary pollutants with obvious nonlinear characteristics have been reported. For example, the tracer method is suitable for the study of simplified scenarios, while HDDM and RSMs are more suitable for the study for nonlinear pollutants. Multiple observation techniques, including conventional air pollutant observation, lidar observation, air sounding balloons, vehicle-mounted and ship-borne technology, aerial surveys, and remote sensing observations, have been utilized to investigate air pollutant transport characteristics with time resolution as high as 1 sec. In addition, based on a multi-regional input-output model combined with emission inventories, the transfer of air pollutant emissions can be evaluated and applied to study the air pollutant transport characteristics. Observational technologies have advantages in temporal resolution and accuracy, while modeling technologies are more flexible in spatial resolution and research plan setting. In order to accurately quantify the transport characteristics of pollutants, it is necessary to develop a research method for interactive verification of observation and simulation. Quantitative evaluation of the transport of air pollutants from different angles can provide a scientific basis for regional joint prevention and control.