An individual-based stochastic hazard model of eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) migration with spatially and temporally varying fishing effort

This paper describes an individual-based stochastic model of eastern king prawn migration along the eastern Australian coast. Migration is treated as one-dimensional diffusion with drift. Capture of a prawn is seen as a failure event driven by movement through a spatially and temporally variable fishing mortality hazard. This hazard is combined with a uniform natural mortality hazard. We use a Monte Carlo method to estimate parameters by comparing expected numbers of tag-returns predicted from the model with previously published tag-release data. As the previous study used a discrete compartmental model, with compartments corresponding to zones of constant fishing effort, we used the same zones and fishing effort in our comparison. The marginal distribution of yield in each zone per single recruit is determined, providing more information compared with the deterministic approach to yield-per-recruit. Using our model we also derive the constant fishing mortality rate equivalent to a spatially variable fishing mortality rate in its impact on the proportion of prawns surviving the migration to reach spawning grounds. Determination of this proportion could contribute significantly to a sustainability assessment of the fishery. It is demonstrated using the AIC that better fits to the data of the previous study and greater parsimony are obtained using our model than were found in the deterministic compartmental analysis of that study. This improvement results from the ability of our model to account separately for average speed of movement and average dispersal rate, whereas in the previous deterministic compartmental model, movement is governed by just one parameter. Our individual-based model includes a parameter that explicitly accounts for dispersal of prawns in migration, so it can distinguish between speed effects and dispersal effects in the data. It also models both types of mortality as processes distinct from those of movement. This enables it to better separate movement and mortality effects compared to the compartmental approach, in which movement and mortality are treated as similar departure processes from a compartment. This separation reduces confounding of movement and mortality effects when parameters are estimated.     

Analysis of annual fluctuations of C. nodosa in the Venice lagoon: Modeling approach

A simple simulation model was developed to describe the growth trends of Cymodocea nodosa (Ucria) Ascherson based on data sets from the Venice lagoon. The model reproduces the seasonal fluctuations in the above and belowground biomass and in shoot density. The modeling results are in good agreement with data on net production, growth rates and chemical–physical parameters of water. It was assumed that light and temperature are the most important factors controlling C. nodosa development, and that the growth was not limited by nutrient availability. The aim was to simulate biomass production as a function of external forcing variables (light, water temperature) and internal control (plant density). A series of simulation experiments were performed with the basic model showing that among the most important phenomena affecting C. nodosa growth are: (1) inhibition of production and recruitment of new shoots by high temperature and (2) light attenuation due to seasonal fluctuation.     

How might we model an ecosystem?

Predicting ecosystem effects is of crucial importance in a world at threat from natural and human-mediated change. Here we propose an ecologically defensible representation of an ecosystem that facilitates predictive modelling. The representation has its roots in the early trophic and energetic theory of ecosystem dynamics and more recent functional ecology and network theory. Using the arable ecosystem of the UK as an example, we show that the representation allows simplification from the many interacting plant and invertebrate species, typically present in arable fields, to a more tractable number of trophic-functional types. Our compound hypothesis is that “trophic-functional types of plants and invertebrates can be used to explain the structure, diversity and dynamics of arable ecosystems”. The trophic-functional types act as containers for individuals, within an individual-based model, sharing similar trophic behaviour and traits of biomass transformation. Biomass, or energy, flows between the types and this allows the key ecological properties of individual abundance and body mass, at each trophic height, to be followed through simulations. Our preliminary simulation results suggest that the model shows great promise. The simulation output for simple ecosystems, populated with realistic parameter values, is consistent with current laboratory observations and provides exciting indications that it could reproduce field scale phenomena. The model also produces output that links the individual, population and community scales, and may be analysed and tested using community, network (food web) and population dynamic theory. We show that we can include management effects, as perturbations to parameter values, for modelling the effects of change and indicating management responses to change. This model will require robust analysis, testing and validation, and we discuss how we will achieve this in the future.     

交通噪声在临街建筑群间传播中衍射的影响

本文利用光学中的Ｈｕｇｅｎｓ－Ｆｒｅｓｎｌ原理和Ｋｉｒ－ｃｈｏｆ近似理论,建立了由点声源组成的随机车辆流模型,探讨声波通过屏障间狭缝的衍射,从而确定交通噪声对临街建筑群中某测点的贡献     

Revealing the GHG reduction potential of emerging biomass-based CO2 utilization with an iron cycle system

● Greenhouse gas mitigation by biomass-based CO₂ utilization with a Fe cycle system. ● The system including hydrothermal CO₂ reduction with Fe and Fe recovery by biomass. ● The reduction potential quantified by experiments, simulations, and an ex-ante LCA. ● The greatest GHG reduction potential is −34.03 kg CO₂-eq/kg absorbed CO₂. ● Ex-ante LCA supports process optimization to maximize GHG reduction potential. CO₂ utilization becomes a promising solution for reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Biomass-based CO₂ utilization (BCU) even has the potential to generate negative emissions, but the corresponding quantitative evaluation is limited. Herein, the biomass-based CO₂ utilization with an iron cycle (BCU-Fe) system, which converts CO₂ into formate by Fe under hydrothermal conditions and recovers Fe with biomass-derived glycerin, was investigated. The GHG reduction potential under various process designs was quantified by a multidisciplinary method, including experiments, simulations, and an ex-ante life-cycle assessment. The results reveal that the BCU-Fe system could bring considerable GHG emission reduction. Significantly, the lowest value is −34.03 kg CO₂-eq/kg absorbed CO₂ (−2.44 kg CO₂-eq/kg circulated Fe) with the optimal yield of formate (66%) and Fe (80%). The proposed ex-ante evaluation approach not only reveals the benefits of mitigating climate change by applying the BCU-Fe system, but also serves as a generic tool to guide the industrialization of emerging carbon-neutral technologies.     

燃烧过程氮氧化物系统中反应和传递模型研究进展

氮氧化物是空气中主要污染物之一,随着计算燃烧学迅速发展,氮氧化物(NOx)生成反应和传递过程的模拟在燃烧反应器设计工作中所起的作用越来越重要,如何建立合理而经济的预测模型,是其中的关键问题之一。根据国内外的研究现状,本文对燃烧过程氮氧化物系统中的反应和传递模型研究进展进行了评述,讨论了各个模型的优点和不足,并提出了NOx预测模型今后的发展方向。     

初沉池内速度场数值模拟

采用改进的k-ε两方程模型和SIMPLEC算法,对平流式初沉池内速度场进行了数值模拟,研究发现:池内存在着一个小回流区和一个大回流区,小回流区位于进水区底部,大回流区位于入流挡板后的沉淀池上部,约占整个容积的30%~40%,是初沉池性能下降的重要原因。     

Dispersal networks for enhancing bacterial degradation in heterogeneous environments

Successful biodegradation of organic soil pollutants depends on their bioavailability to catabolically active microorganisms. In particular, environmental heterogeneities often limit bacterial access to pollutants. Experimental and modelling studies revealed that fungal networks can facilitate bacterial dispersal and may thereby improve pollutant bioavailability. Here, we investigate the influence of such bacterial dispersal networks on biodegradation performance under spatially heterogeneous abiotic conditions using a process-based simulation model. To match typical situations in polluted soils, two types of abiotic conditions are studied: heterogeneous bacterial dispersal conditions and heterogeneous initial resource distributions. The model predicts that networks facilitating bacterial dispersal can enhance biodegradation performance for a wide range of these conditions. Additionally, the time horizon over which this performance is assessed and the network’s spatial configuration are key factors determining the degree of biodegradation improvement. Our results support the idea of stimulating the establishment of fungal mycelia for enhanced bioremediation of polluted soils.     

A dynamic simulation based water resources education tool

Educational tools to assist the public in recognizing impacts of water policy in a realistic context are not generally available. This project developed systems with modeling-based educational decision support simulation tools to satisfy this need. The goal of this model is to teach undergraduate students and the general public about the implications of common water management alternatives so that they can better understand or become involved in water policy and make more knowledgeable personal or community decisions. The model is based on Powersim, a dynamic simulation software package capable of producing web-accessible, intuitive, graphic, user-friendly interfaces. Modules are included to represent residential, agricultural, industrial, and turf uses, as well as non-market values, water quality, reservoir, flow, and climate conditions. Supplementary materials emphasize important concepts and lead learners through the model, culminating in an open-ended water management project. The model is used in a University of Arizona undergraduate class and within the Arizona Master Watershed Stewards Program. Evaluation results demonstrated improved understanding of concepts and system interactions, fulfilling the project's objectives.     

Fate of linear alkylbenzenes and benzothiazoles of anthropogenic origin and their potential as environmental molecular markers in the Pearl River Delta, South China

The mass emissions of linear alkylbenzenes (LABs), benzothiazole (BT), and 2-[4-morpholinyl]benzothiazole (24MoBT) from anthropogenic activities within one year were estimated according to the population and the number of automobiles in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), South China. Based on the estimation, the distribution of these compounds among various environmental media was simulated with a mass balance box model established in the present study. The results showed that 79% of LABs generated in the PRD was stored in sediment while only 1.3% of LABs was presumably transported to the adjacent South China Sea (SCS). On the contrary, 47% of BT and 77% of 24MoBT generated in the region were carried with riverine runoff to the coastal ocean. The results from the present study suggest that hydrophobic compounds tend to stay in the watershed of the PRD, whereas hydrophilic ones mainly outflow to the coastal ocean.