虚拟现实技术与火灾时人员应急疏散行为研究

分析人员疏散行为的目标规则、约束规则和运动规则 ,以及三者之间的相互关系 ;研究了人员疏散的行为规律 ;提出了建立建筑物火灾事故的虚拟现实环境 ;建立并完善人员应急疏散行为数据库 ;进行了人员应急疏散行为的模拟和建筑物安全疏散性状的概率危险性评价。其研究成果可用以直观、具体地指导建筑物安全疏散设计和火灾安全管理 ,并且可作为应急决策和消防演习的一种非常有价值的参考工具     

A simulation study of the medium-term effects of field patterns on cross-pollination rates in oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.)

Gene flow between cultivars within a landscape may lead to impurities that reduce harvest value. In OSR, as for most crops, impurity rates are expected to depend on the spatial distribution of crops over the landscape. However, in contrast to other well-studied crops such as maize, OSR crops generate seed banks in European agro-ecosystems. Gene flow is thus a spatio-temporal process which depends on cropping systems. We therefore aimed at identifying spatial variables that have an effect on regional or local harvest impurities, taking account of the time since the introduction of OSR crops in the regions and of cropping system. Gene flow was simulated over 36 field patterns cultivated with either 15% or 30% of OSR fields, among which 10% or 50% were GM, for three contrasted cropping systems, with the GeneSys software already used for EU co-existence studies. Through regression analyses, we determined spatial and agronomic factors that most affected harvest impurity rates of non-GM OSR after one or seven years of OSR cultivation. The cropping system was the main factor explaining regional harvest impurity rates. Its importance increased after six years of OSR cultivation. For a given cropping system, the regional impurity rate after one year increased linearly with the current proportion of GM crop. In contrast, impurity rates after six years largely depended on the proportions of OSR crop (GM or not) in the two preceding years. During the first year of OSR cultivation, local impurity rates were mostly explained by the distance to the closest GM field. After six years, these rates were mostly explained by the density of GM volunteers in the analysed field and, to a lesser degree, to that of volunteers in neighbour non-OSR fields. Cropping systems were most important in determining impurity rates and the way impurity rates related to regional or local factors. Determination of isolation distances to ensure harvest purity should thus consider past history of OSR cultivation in the area and, in particular, how current or future cropping systems will manage volunteers. Regression quantiles were fitted to the simulated data to determine regional rules (i.e. the maximum regional area of GM OSR and isolation distances between GM and non-GM crops) as a function of the risk accepted by the decision-maker (i.e. the % of situations exceeding harvest impurity thresholds), the cropping system and the volunteer infestation.     

A hierarchical,multi-scale,management-responsive model of Mediterranean vegetation dynamics

Ecosystems of the Mediterranean basin are characterized by a heterogeneous and dynamic landscape mosaic of vegetation formations. This landscape has been shaped over millenia by disturbances associated with agropastoral land use: clearing, grazing and burning, and by regeneration processes of the natural woody vegetation. The ability to predict the effects of management decisions on the structure and composition of the vegetation is essential for present and future land management. To improve this ability we developed a hierarchical multi-scale, management-responsive model of vegetation dynamics.     

海平面上升对城市生态环境易损性影响的模拟分析

根据目前全球海平面上升趋势,提出我国沿海城市生态环境遭受破坏的概率和损失程度判断标准,并将二者进行拟合用于构建基于海平面上升的我国沿海城市各区域的生态环境易损性判断模型。且通过实例研究表明,该模型能够准确的判别上海市各区域的生态环境易损性等级,这为未来上海市维持生态环境的可持续发展提供科学、有效的参考依据。     

Modeling carbon sequestration under zero-tillage at the regional scale. II. The influence of crop rotation and soil type

For policy decisions with respect to CO₂-mitigation measures in the agricultural sector, national and regional estimations of the efficiency of such measures are required. The conversion of ploughed cropland to zero-tillage is discussed as an option to reduce CO₂ emissions and promises at the same time effective soil and water conservation. Based on the upscaling of simulation results with the soil and land resources information system SLISYS-BW, estimations of CO₂-mitigation rates in relation to crop rotations and soil type have been made for the state of Baden-Württemberg (Germany). The results indicate considerable differences in the CO₂-mitigation rates between crop rotations ranging from 0.48 to 0.03 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ for winter cereals–spring cereals–rape rotations and winter cereals–spring cereals–corn silage rotations, respectively. The efficiency of the crop rotations is strongly related to the total carbon input and in particular the amount of crop residues. Among the considered soil types, highest CO₂-mitigation rates are associated with Cumulic Anthrosols (0.62 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹) and the lowest with Gleysols (−0.01 Mg C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹). An agricultural extensification scenario with conventional plowing but conversion of the presently applied intensive crop rotations to a clover–clover–winter cereals rotation indicated a CO₂-mitigation potential of 466 Gg C a⁻¹. However, the present high market prices for cereals and increasing demand for energy production from biomass encourages an intensification of the agricultural production and an excessive removal of biomass which in future will seriously reduce the potential for carbon sequestration on cropland.     

基于Pathfinder的商场人员疏散仿真

商场中的人员疏散是一个复杂的过程。运用人员疏散仿真软件Pathfinder 2012对某商场在紧急情况下人员的安全疏散进行研究,重点讨论借用防火分区防火门进行疏散对疏散效率的影响。模拟结果表明,借用相邻防火分区进行疏散可以有效提高单个防火分区的疏散效率,但如果在相邻防火分区防火门处出现相向流则会降低整体的疏散效率,并且随着人数的增多变得更加严重。因此,应定期针对商场员工开展疏散演练等相关培训,增强员工疏散引导的能力,避免疏散过程中出现行人相向流,最终提高商场人员疏散的效率。     

工业锅炉仿真系统节能模块设计及实现

仿真系统已成为工业锅炉操作人员培训的重要手段之一,在工业锅炉仿真系统中加入节能模块,能有效增强经济运行指导和提高操作人员节能意识。本文利用仿真开发平台SimuWorks构建工业锅炉仿真系统节能模块,通过锅炉正反平衡热效率公式分析及简化,给出了飞灰含碳量的直接计算方法,结合各模块计算数据,可以获得完整的运行经济指标。     

Effect prediction of time-gaps for adaptive cruise control (ACC) and in-vehicle tasks on bus driver performance

Researchers have devoted a great deal of attention to the effects of driver assist systems on driver performance. This article describes a modeling approach to simulate the effects of time-gaps for adaptive cruise control (ACC) and manual in-vehicle tasks on bus-driver performance. A concept model was built with the knowledge of modularization, parameterization, and parallel processing. By running the model, the predictions for the effects of five levels of time-gaps and two types of in-vehicle tasks were collected in three measures: (1) mean gap, (2) minimum gap, and (3) collision rate. The model performed well in prediction, especially when driving with in-vehicle tasks. Predictions from the model were validated by the experiment with a verified fixed-base bus-driving simulator, used in the authors’ previous studies. Throughout the modeling approach, this research provides a theoretical and accurate way to assess effects of time-gaps and vehicle-equipped interfaces. In follow-up research, the authors will apply this approach to evaluate other driving assist systems (e.g. collision warning systems and navigation systems) to create a customized software kit.     

Benzene degradation in waste gas by photolysis and photolysis-ozonation: experiments and modeling

A photochemical model of benzene degradation compares well with experimental data obtained in the Lab. 62 reactions were needed to fully describe benzene degradation. A feasibility study shows that the photolysis of benzene is a cost-effective process. Experimental data and modeling results show that the degradation efficiency will increase when the combination of UV light and ozone is used. The degradation of benzene, a carcinogenic air pollutant, was studied in a gas-phase photochemical reactor with an amalgam lamp emitting ultraviolet light at 185 and 254 nm. Efficient benzene degradation (>70%) was possible for benzene mass flow rates of up to 1.5 mg·min⁻¹. Adding ozone allowed benzene mass flow rates of up to 5 mg·min⁻¹ to be treated with the same efficiency. In terms of energy consumption, ozone doubles the efficiency of the process. A comprehensive mechanistic simulation model was developed incorporating a chemical kinetics model (62 reactions involving 47 chemical species), a material balance model incorporating diffusion and flow, a flow velocity model, and a light field model. The model successfully predicted the efficiency of the reactor, generally within 20%, which indicates that the model is sound, and can be used for feasibility studies. The prediction of the reactor efficiency in the presence of ozone was less successful, with systematically overestimated efficiency. Condensation of reaction products in the reactor is thought to be the main cause of model inaccuracy. Both experimental data and model predictions show that there is a synergistic effect between ozonation and ultraviolet degradation.     

Sensitivity of a coupled physical–biological model to turbulence: high-frequency simulations in a northern Adriatic station

This paper investigates the impacts of different turbulence models on the biological state at an ocean station in the northern Adriatic sea, named S3, comparing them with other uncertainties inherent to coupled physical–biological simulations. The numerical tool is a 1-D model resulting from the coupling of two advanced numerical models. The hydrodynamic part is modelled using the General Ocean Turbulence Model (www.gotm.net), in a version adopting state-of-the-art second-moment Turbulence Closure Models (TCMs). Marine biogeochemistry is parameterized with the Biogeochemical Flux Model (http://www.bo.ingv.it/bfm), which is a direct descendant of ERSEM (European Regional Sea Ecosystem Model). Results, obtained by forcing the model with hourly wind and solar radiation data and assimilating salinity casts, are compared against monthly observations made at the station during 2000–2001. Provided that modern second-moment TCMs are employed, the comparisons indicate that both the physical and the biological dynamics are relatively insensitive to the choice of the particular scheme adopted, suggesting that TCMs have finally ‘converged’ in recent years. As a further example, the choice of the nutrient boundary conditions has an impact on the system evolution that is more significant than the choice of the specific TCM, therefore representing a possible limitation of the 1-D model applied to stations located in a Region of Freshwater Influence. The 1-D model simulates the onset and intensity of the spring–summer bloom quite well, although the duration of the bloom is not as prolonged as in the data. Since local dynamics appears unable to sustain the bloom conditions well into summer, phytoplankton at the station was most likely influenced by river input or advection processes, an aspect that was not found when the S3 behaviour was adequately modelled using climatological forcings. When the focus is in predicting high-frequency dynamics, it is more likely that lateral advection cannot be neglected. While the physical state can be satisfactorily estimated at these short time scales, the accurate estimation of the biological state in coastal regions still appears as rather elusive.