Theoretical and Empidcal Study on Urban Population Carrying Capacity:Case of Haidian District in Beijing

The measurement of urban population carrying capac- ity is the basis for cities' sustainable development.However,the traditional study on population carrying capacity which was based on food supply is not applicable to the single urban area.This paper built a model for the analysis of urban carrying capacity, and took Haidian District in Beijing as an example to calculate the urban carrying capacity of Haidian District in the future,which was the basis for the improvement of the population carrying capac...     

Methodology for case studies of accidental gas explosions

This paper discusses a procedure for case studies of accidental gas explosions. The procedure for each case study can be subdivided into four steps, i.e., collection of proofs, analyses, confirmation, and inference about the processes of the accident, and the issues in each step are pointed out. Making a guess on the sequence of the accident to be investigated should be avoided during collection of proofs. Misunderstanding of the phenomena in analyses and confirmation is likely caused by inappropriate knowledge on the phenomena and/or use of unsuitable models. The sequence of the accidental gas explosion should be inferred on the basis of confirmed processes. If there are other possibilities, those should be described in the report. The reasonableness of the results of a case study depends on the rationality of the procedure and the quality or plausibility of knowledge to infer the probable sequence.     

Human behavior incorporation into ecological computer simulations

The responses of ecological computer simulations are significantly changed by the inclusion of human behavior patterns. Two computer simulations illustrate this principle for internal and external decision making. The Northwest Educational Trawler Simulation (NETS) models the interaction between fish populations, fishing effort, markets, and a fishing community. This simulation includes an internal decision making submodel for changing fishing effort based on observed behaviors of fishermen. NOGERO, a simulation of a mythical coastal fishing culture, uses external decision making where simulation users act as stewards. The patterns of model response vary depending on the attitudes and goals of decision makers. This shows how human behavior interacts with ecosystem dynamics to produce a variety of results.     

THEORY AND REALITY IN ALLOCATING FEDERAL RESOURCES TO WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT: Federal spending on water resource development projects exceeds $10 billion annually. This paper examines the economic theory and practice on which the Federal water resource development plans are based. Existing theoretical and applied problems result in overinvestment. These include 1) no standard of value for the tradeoff of environmental objectives with economic objectives; 2) benefits based on “willingness to pay,” but beneficiaries pay only a fraction of a project's costs; 3) beneficiaries “shop around” among program purposes in order to reduce their commitments; and 4) benefit/cost (B/C) analyses are based on a discount rate, which is consistently below the Federal borrowing rate. Furthermore, the Government Accounting Office (GAO) frequently finds that the agency regulations are inadequate and result in inconsistent and questionable benefit computations. The President has proposed a series of water policy reforms, to reduce some of the apparent overinvestment in water resource development, but fundmental corrective action rests with the members of Congress.     

A FIELD EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF HEATED DISCHARGES ON FISH DISTRIBUTION1

ABSTRACT. Studies were conducted to determine the distribution of fish in the New and East Rivers in relation to thermal discharges from Appalachian Power Company's fossil fuel plant at Glen Lyn, Virginia. Over 15,300 specimens representing 41 species were collected with seines, electrogear and rotenone at six sampling locations from February, 1973 to October 1973. Sampling frequency was designed to evaluate the effects of ambient temperature upon preferred temperature. Diversity indices were calculated for each location. There was a slight decrease in the diversity indices for those stations located in the thermal discharge. Condition coefficients calculated for Notropis albeolus Jordan, Notropis rubellus Aqasaiz, Notropis spilopterus Cope, Ictalurus punctatus Rafinesque, and Etheostoma blennioides Rafuesque were found to be significantly (p =.05) lower in the thermal discharge for all species tested except E. blennioides. Temperatures were plotted against frequency of capture to determine a particular species temperature selection from field data and indicated that: (1) Some species avoided high temperatures (i.e., Curnpostoma anomalum Rafuesque). (2) Some species were attracted to high temperatures (i.e., Ictalurus punctatus). (3) Some species distribution was not effected by temperatures (i.e., Notropis spilopterus).     

Indicators for hydraulic and pollution retention assessment of stormwater infiltration basins

Infiltration basins are frequently used for stormwater management even though their long-term evolution is not well understood nor controlled. The two main problems encountered are clogging which compromises the hydraulic capacity of the basin and possible contamination of underlying soil and groundwater. This paper defines a framework for evaluating the hydraulic and pollution retention performance of infiltration basins in the long-term. Sets of context and performance indicators are proposed, along with two complementary modes of evaluation. Context indicators are identified in order to define the clogging and contamination states of the basins. Performance indicators are developed to assess several aspects of basin performance: drainage duration, overflow frequency, predictive life period, particle filtration and pollution trapping. Modes of evaluation include field investigation and long-term simulation modeling. Indicators are tested on five infiltration basins in suburban Lyon (France). Both context indicators and hydraulic performance indicators are reliable and their evaluation is representative of basin behavior. This is not the case for pollution retention performance indicators. Their assessment is difficult because of data quality. Field data has high uncertainties. The model is satisfactory for the hydraulic simulation and the evolution of clogging. Improvements are necessary for pollution flow simulation and the acquisition of better quality data is required.     

Land Management in the American Southwest: A State-and-Transition Approach to Ecosystem Complexity

State-and-transition models are increasingly being used to guide rangeland management. These models provide a relatively simple, management-oriented way to classify land condition (state) and to describe the factors that might cause a shift to another state (a transition). There are many formulations of state-and-transition models in the literature. The version we endorse does not adhere to any particular generalities about ecosystem dynamics, but it includes consideration of several kinds of dynamics and management response to them. In contrast to previous uses of state-and-transition models, we propose that models can, at present, be most effectively used to specify and qualitatively compare the relative benefits and potential risks of different management actions (e.g., fire and grazing) and other factors (e.g., invasive species and climate change) on specified areas of land. High spatial and temporal variability and complex interactions preclude the meaningful use of general quantitative models. Forecasts can be made on a case-by-case basis by interpreting qualitative and quantitative indicators, historical data, and spatially structured monitoring data based on conceptual models. We illustrate how science- based conceptual models are created using several rangeland examples that vary in complexity. In doing so, we illustrate the implications of designating plant communities and states in models, accounting for varying scales of pattern in vegetation and soils, interpreting the presence of plant communities on different soils and dealing with our uncertainty about how those communities were assembled and how they will change in the future. We conclude with observations about how models have helped to improve management decision-making.     

Uncertainty Analysis In Dissolved Oxygen Modeling in Streams

Uncertainty analysis in surface water quality modeling is an important issue. This paper presents a method based on the first-order reliability method (FORM) to assess the exceedance probability of a target dissolved oxygen concentration in a stream, using a Streeter–Phelps prototype model. Basic uncertainty in the input parameters is considered by representing them as random variables with prescribed probability distributions. Results obtained from FORM analysis compared well with those of the Monte Carlo simulation method. The analysis also presents the stochastic sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome in the form of uncertainty importance factors, and shows how they change with changing simulation time. Furthermore, a parametric sensitivity analysis was conducted to show the effect of selection of different probability distribution functions for the three most important parameters on the design point, exceedance probability, and importance factors. Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.     

谈高职院校学风建设的方法及途径

通过对高职院校学生的学风现状分析,指出了其成因,提出了适合高职院校加强学生的学风建设的方法和途径.     

浅论“研究性学习“教学模式

"研究性学习"教学模式,促使教学理念发生根本的改变,它以学生的发展为根本,注重教学活动中学生素质的形成过程,使学生在主动、互动的学习过程中有所思、有所为、有所得,使学生的学习水平、科学意识、人文思想、实践能力、创新精神等得到全面发展.