Estimating the variance in before-after studies

Problem

To simplify the computation of the variance in before-after studies, it is generally assumed that the observed crash data for each entity (or observation) are Poisson distributed. Given the characteristics of this distribution, the observed value (x_i) for each entity is implicitly made equal to its variance. However, the variance should be estimated using the conditional properties of this observed value (defined as a random variable), that is, f(x_i|μ_i), since the mean of the observed value is in fact unknown.

Method

Parametric and non-parametric bootstrap methods were investigated to evaluate the conditional assumption using simulated and observed data.

Results

The results of this study show that observed data should not be used as a substitute for the variance, even if the entities are assumed to be Poisson distributed. Consequently, the estimated variance for the parameters under study in traditional before-after studies is likely to be underestimated.

Conclusions

The proposed methods offer more accurate approaches for estimating the variance in before-after studies.     

铁路运输含硫原油过程中H_2S挥发规律模拟试验研究

以塔河12区含硫原油为研究对象,通过模拟铁路运输原油工况,研究罐内原油中H_2S挥发规律.结果表明,铁路运输过程中原油里H_2S析出浓度与时间的关系近似为6次多项式,并建证了H_2S浓度随时间变化的曲线方程;对影响罐内原油中H_2S挥发的2个主要因素罐内原油温度和罐车振动强度进行了分析.结果表明,罐内原油温度是原油中H_2S挥发的主要影响因素,升高罐内原油温度可以明显增加H_2S的挥发浓度.加大罐车振动强度对原油中H_2S挥发有促进作用,但不明显.     

Industrial pollution,spatial stigma and economic decline: the case of Asopos river basin through the lens of local small business owners

This paper explores the notion of environmentally induced spatial stigma through an analysis of data from interviews across public attitudes to pollution within the Asopos river basin in central Greece. The area has a 40 year plus history of legal and illicit industrial waste disposal and public debate on the associated environmental degradation. The study focuses on the perceptions and beliefs of a sector of the community likely to be directly and negatively affected by stigma, that is small business owners in the tourism and hospitality sector. The qualitative analysis explores awareness and viewpoints on environmental degradation and water quality within the local context, implications for the local economy and the individual's own enterprise, views on industrial environmental management as well as corporate responsibility and future prospects for the environmental problems of Asopos. Findings reveal a noticeable variation in views on industrial pollution and ecosystem deterioration among the respondents, but overall a strong environmentally induced stigmatization of the area. They also uncover an information asymmetry and lack of credible commitment by government bodies and industry members in disclosing accurate information, a situation likely to increase speculation and uncertainty within the community. The paper concludes by addressing implications of the findings to policy-making and managerial considerations, along with future research perspectives which aim to increase considerations of sustainability aspects for local development.     

基于SCP模型的节能环保市场分析研究

从需求角度出发,区分了节能环保产业中三种不同类型的市场,然后以SCP模型为分析框架,对三种不同类型的市场结构、企业行为和绩效进行了分析和比较,归纳了节能环保产业中不同类型的市场所存在的问题和解决思路。     

城市社会体育志愿者组织建设的实践性研究——以秦皇岛市社会体育志愿者组织为例

应用文献资料法、问卷调查法、实证研究法,探讨了城市社会体育志愿者组织建设的方法策略,即以高校社会体育专业成立志愿者分队为基点,依托当地已有的志愿者组织平台,融合吸纳更多的社会体育志愿者加入社会体育志愿者大队。通过社会体育志愿者分队的组建及服务项目的实施,为政府落实《建立全民健身志愿服务长效化机制工作方案》提供参考意见,同时也为提高社会体育专业学生的专业能力和人文素养搭建平台。     

厌氧滤池处理纺织印染废水的中试研究

对厌氧滤池反应器处理难降解印染废水进行中试研究。结果表明,厌氧滤池反应器水力停留时间(HRT)在8.1～14.6 h之间,进水COD浓度波动较大(500～1 000 mg/L)时,对COD平均去除率为20%。印染废水的BOD5/COD由0.23提高到0.35,废水可生化性明显改善。印染废水中硫酸根浓度略有下降,去除浓度为70 mg/L左右。厌氧滤池进出水颜色明显变化,由紫红色变为蓝黑色,紫外可见光谱分析表明废水中的有机物结构发生变化。     

铁炭微电解法降解TAIC废水

TAIC（三烯丙基异氰脲酸酯）作为过氧化物交联或自由基反应交联的助交联剂被广泛应用。由于TAIC性质稳定难于生物降解,采用铁炭微电解法处理TAIC生产废水,并考察了铁炭比、进水pH值、反应时间对处理效果的影响,以及TAIC降解机理和反应动力学过程。结果表明,影响微电解工艺的因素主次关系为：pH>Fe/C质量比>反应时间;在最佳条件进水pH值为5,铁炭质量比为2：1,反应时间为135 min时,COD的去除率达到46%以上,TAIC的去除率达到48%以上。TAIC去除机理研究表明,微电解对TAIC废水的作用主要通过·H的还原和铁离子的絮凝作用,其中·H的还原作用是TAIC降解的主要原因。反应动力学分析表明,铁炭微电解法处理TAIC的降解过程基本符合二级反应动力学规律,通过建立模型并拟合出了TAIC降解的二级反应动力学方程。     

Herbicide Leaching on a Recharge Area of the Guarany Aquifer in Brazil

Abstract

The region of Ribeirão Preto City, located in Southeast of Brazil, São Paulo State, is an important sugarcane, soybean, and corn producing area with a high level of pesticides utilization. This region is also an important recharge area for groundwater supply of the Guarany aquifer. Since the past ten years atrazine, simazine, ametryn, tebuthiuron, diuron, 2,4-D, picloram, and hexazinone are the main herbicides used in this area. In order to study a possible leaching of some of these herbicides into the aquifer, surface, and groundwater samples were collected in a watershed during the years of 1996 to 2003, from different locations. To detect and quantify the herbicides a GC-MS (gas chromatograph/mass spectrometry) method was used. The response of the herbicides analyzed was linear over the concentration range of 0.02 to 2.0 μg/L. Analysis of groundwater revealed that the herbicides tebuthiuron, diuron, atrazine, simazine, and ametryn were not present in the samples. In the surface water collected in 1997, ametryn was present in two out of nine locations with concentrations ranging from 0.17 and 0.23 μg/L, which is above the allowable 0.1 μg/L according to the European safety level. The leaching potential of tebuthiuron, diuron, atrazine, simazine, 2,4-D, picloram, and hexazinone has been evaluated using CMLS-94, “Chemical Movement in Layered Soil,” as simulation model. No leaching into the depth of the water table at 40 m was found.     

Effects of signals of disorder on fear of crime in real and virtual environments

Despite the fact that virtual environments are increasingly deployed to study the relation between urban planning, physical and social disorder, and fear of crime, their ecological validity for this type of research has not been established. This study compares the effects of similar signs of public disorder (litter, warning signs, cameras, signs of vandalism and car burglary) in an urban neighborhood and in its virtual counterpart on the subjective perception of safety and livability of the neighborhood. Participants made a walking tour through either the real or the virtual neighborhood, which was either in an orderly (baseline) state or adorned with numerous signs of public disorder. During their tour they reported the signs of disorder they noticed and the degree to which each of these affected their emotional state and feelings of personal safety. After finishing their tour they appraised the perceived safety and livability of the environment. Both in the real and in the simulated urban neighborhood, signs of disorder evoked associations with social disorder. In all conditions, neglected greenery was spontaneously reported as a sign of disorder. Disorder did not inspire concern for personal safety in reality and in the virtual environment with a realistic soundscape. However, in the absence of sound disorder compromised perceived personal safety in the virtual environment. Signs of disorder were associated with negative emotions more frequently in the virtual environment than in its real-world counterpart, particularly in the absence of sound. Also, signs of disorder degraded the perceived livability of the virtual, but not of the real neighborhood. Hence, it appears that people focus more on details in a virtual environment than in reality. We conclude that both a correction for this focusing effect and realistic soundscapes are required to make virtual environments an appropriate medium for both etiological (e.g. the effects of signs of disorder on fear of crime) and intervention (e.g. CPTED) research.     

Impacts on industry of Europe's emerging chemicals policy REACh

For Europe, a new regime in chemicals regulation is about to start. After the proposal of the European Commission concerning the Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals (REACh) passed its readings in the European Parliament and some differences with the European Council of Ministers were resolved, the regulation will come into force in June 2007. This paper is focused on the question how serious the cost burdens for industry induced by REACh will be, and whether the New European Member States (NMS) which joined the European Union in May 2004 will be able to cope with the regulation. This evaluation has been done by assessing the legislative, administrative and economic framework in New Member States and by analysing real business cases in companies. The empirical showcase business impact studies are at the same time of interest for companies of EU-15 states, other European countries who may implement the regulation, and even for exporters of raw materials and chemicals outside Europe, who will also have to comply with REACh if they market in the European Community. The results give no indications that REACh adoption will bring significant drawbacks to companies in the NMS. The emerging regulation will bring challenges for individual companies, especially for small and medium-sized ones, but for the European chemical industry as a whole, there is no question that it will be able to cope with REACh burdens without losing its global competitiveness.