How might we model an ecosystem?

Predicting ecosystem effects is of crucial importance in a world at threat from natural and human-mediated change. Here we propose an ecologically defensible representation of an ecosystem that facilitates predictive modelling. The representation has its roots in the early trophic and energetic theory of ecosystem dynamics and more recent functional ecology and network theory. Using the arable ecosystem of the UK as an example, we show that the representation allows simplification from the many interacting plant and invertebrate species, typically present in arable fields, to a more tractable number of trophic-functional types. Our compound hypothesis is that “trophic-functional types of plants and invertebrates can be used to explain the structure, diversity and dynamics of arable ecosystems”. The trophic-functional types act as containers for individuals, within an individual-based model, sharing similar trophic behaviour and traits of biomass transformation. Biomass, or energy, flows between the types and this allows the key ecological properties of individual abundance and body mass, at each trophic height, to be followed through simulations. Our preliminary simulation results suggest that the model shows great promise. The simulation output for simple ecosystems, populated with realistic parameter values, is consistent with current laboratory observations and provides exciting indications that it could reproduce field scale phenomena. The model also produces output that links the individual, population and community scales, and may be analysed and tested using community, network (food web) and population dynamic theory. We show that we can include management effects, as perturbations to parameter values, for modelling the effects of change and indicating management responses to change. This model will require robust analysis, testing and validation, and we discuss how we will achieve this in the future.     

环保产业发展影响因素的理论分析与实证研究

基于环境社会系统视角对影响环保产业发展的各种因素进行了理论分析,建立了定量分析模型,并对我国1995─2005年环保产业发展情况进行了实证分析.结果表明,影响我国环保产业发展程度从大到小的因素依次为经济发展水平、环境科技水平、环境状况、公众环境意识、环境保护法律法规.经济发展水平是影响我国环保产业发展水平的最主要因素,说明我国的环保产业尚处于起步阶段;环境科技水平是第二重要影响因素,反映出近年来我国在环保技术研发方面的投入较好地推动了环保产业的发展.因此,提升经济发展水平和加强环保技术研发是当前推动我国环保产业发展的有效举措.      

An individual-based stochastic hazard model of eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) migration with spatially and temporally varying fishing effort

This paper describes an individual-based stochastic model of eastern king prawn migration along the eastern Australian coast. Migration is treated as one-dimensional diffusion with drift. Capture of a prawn is seen as a failure event driven by movement through a spatially and temporally variable fishing mortality hazard. This hazard is combined with a uniform natural mortality hazard. We use a Monte Carlo method to estimate parameters by comparing expected numbers of tag-returns predicted from the model with previously published tag-release data. As the previous study used a discrete compartmental model, with compartments corresponding to zones of constant fishing effort, we used the same zones and fishing effort in our comparison. The marginal distribution of yield in each zone per single recruit is determined, providing more information compared with the deterministic approach to yield-per-recruit. Using our model we also derive the constant fishing mortality rate equivalent to a spatially variable fishing mortality rate in its impact on the proportion of prawns surviving the migration to reach spawning grounds. Determination of this proportion could contribute significantly to a sustainability assessment of the fishery. It is demonstrated using the AIC that better fits to the data of the previous study and greater parsimony are obtained using our model than were found in the deterministic compartmental analysis of that study. This improvement results from the ability of our model to account separately for average speed of movement and average dispersal rate, whereas in the previous deterministic compartmental model, movement is governed by just one parameter. Our individual-based model includes a parameter that explicitly accounts for dispersal of prawns in migration, so it can distinguish between speed effects and dispersal effects in the data. It also models both types of mortality as processes distinct from those of movement. This enables it to better separate movement and mortality effects compared to the compartmental approach, in which movement and mortality are treated as similar departure processes from a compartment. This separation reduces confounding of movement and mortality effects when parameters are estimated.     

Analysis of annual fluctuations of C. nodosa in the Venice lagoon: Modeling approach

A simple simulation model was developed to describe the growth trends of Cymodocea nodosa (Ucria) Ascherson based on data sets from the Venice lagoon. The model reproduces the seasonal fluctuations in the above and belowground biomass and in shoot density. The modeling results are in good agreement with data on net production, growth rates and chemical–physical parameters of water. It was assumed that light and temperature are the most important factors controlling C. nodosa development, and that the growth was not limited by nutrient availability. The aim was to simulate biomass production as a function of external forcing variables (light, water temperature) and internal control (plant density). A series of simulation experiments were performed with the basic model showing that among the most important phenomena affecting C. nodosa growth are: (1) inhibition of production and recruitment of new shoots by high temperature and (2) light attenuation due to seasonal fluctuation.     

中外大型游乐设施束缚装置选型比较研究

束缚装置选型是新版中国标准中增加的一项重要内容,中国标准借鉴了美国标准和欧盟标准,但并未完全采用.因此,进行中国标准、美国标准和欧盟标准的比较研究非常重要.本文从人体坐标系、加速度区域和束缚装置准则三个方面对中国标准、美国标准和欧盟标准中的相关内容进行了全面对比,分析了各自的优缺点.在人体坐标系方面,中国标准定义较为合...     

土壤DDT残留时间的定量表征-以天津为例

从定性研究逐步向定量化分析发展,是土壤DDT残留时间研究的必然趋势。初步探讨了土壤中DDT残留时间的定量表征,设计出归一化的DDT残留时间指数(NRTI)作为定量表征土壤DDT残留时间的方法之一。根据对天津土壤中残留DDT的采样监测结果的计算和分析,发现NRTI在表征DDT的残留时间问题上,相对于传统方法有一定的改进。     

Understanding crashes involving roadway objects with SHRP 2 naturalistic driving study data

Introduction: Crashes involving roadway objects and animals can cause severe injuries and property damages and are a major concern for the traveling public, state transportation agencies, and the automotive industry. This project involved an in-depth investigation of such crashes based on the second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Naturalistic Driving Study (NDS) data including detailed information and videos about 2,689 events. Methods: The research team conducted a variety of logistic regression analyses, complemented by Support Vector Machine (SVM) analyses and detailed case studies. Results: The logistic regression results indicated that driver behavior/errors, involvement of secondary tasks, roadway characteristics, lighting condition, and pavement surface condition are among the factors that contributed significantly to the occurrence and/or increased severity outcomes of crashes involving roadway objects and animals. Among these factors, improper turning movements (odds ratio = 88), avoiding animal or other vehicle (odds ratio = 38), and reaching/moving object in vehicle (odds ratio = 29) particularly increased the odds of crash occurrence. Factors such as open country roadways, sign/signal violation, unfamiliar with roadway, fatigue/drowsiness, and speeding significantly increased the severity outcomes when such crashes occurred. The sensitivity analysis of the three SVM classifiers confirmed that driver behavior/errors, critical speed, struck object type, and reaction time were major factors affecting the occurrence and severity outcomes of events involving roadway objects and animals. Practical Applications: The study provides insights on risk factors influencing safety events involving roadway objects, including their occurrence and the severity outcomes. The findings allow researchers and traffic engineers to better understand the causes of such crashes and therefore develop more effective roadway- and vehicle- based countermeasures.     

Metolachlor persistence in laboratory and field soils under Indian tropical conditions

Abstract

Metolachlor [2‐chloro‐N‐(2‐methoxy‐1‐methylethyl)‐2'‐ethyl‐6'‐methyl acetanilide] dissipation under both field and laboratory conditions were studied during summer season in an Indian soil. Metolachlor was found to have moderate persistence with a half‐life of 27 days in field. The herbicide got leached down to 15–30 cm soil layer and residues were found up to harvest day of the sunflower crop in both 0–15 cm and 15–30 cm soil layers. Metolachlor was found to be more persistent in laboratory studies conducted for 190 days. The rate of degradation was faster in soil under flooded partial anaerobic conditions as compared to aerobic soil with a half‐life of 44.3 days. In aerobic soil, metolachlor was very stable with only 49% dissipation in 130 days. Residues remained in both the soils up to the end of the experimental period of 190 days.     

Photolysis of oxyfluorfen in aqueous methanol

Photolysis of oxyfluorfen, an herbicide of the nitrodiphenyl ether class, was studied in aqueous methanol under UV and sunlight. UV irradiation was carried out in a borosilicate glass photoreactor (containing 250 ppm oxyfluorfen in 50% aqueous methanol) equipped with a quartz filter and 125 watt mercury lamp (maximum output 254 nm) at 25 ± 1°C. Sunlight irradiation was conducted at 28 ± 1°C in borosilicate Erlenmeyer flasks containing 250 ppm oxyfluorfen in 50% aqueous methanol. The samples from both the irradiated conditions were withdrawn at a definite time interval and extracted to measure oxyfluorfen content by gas chromatography-flame ionization detector for rate study. The half-life values were 20 hours and 2.7 days under UV and sunlight exposure, respectively. Photolysis of oxyfluorfen yielded 13 photoproducts of which three were characterized by infrared spectrophotometer and ¹H NMR and ¹³C NMR spectroscopy. The rest of the photoproducts were identified by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and thin layer chromatography (TLC). An ionization potential 70 eV was used for electron impact-mass spectrometry (EI-MS) and methane was used as reagent gas for chemical ionization-mass spectrometry (CI-MS). Two of the photoproducts were also synthesized for comparison. The main phototransformation pathways of oxyfluorfen involved nitro reduction, dechlorination, and hydrolysis as well as nucleophiles displacement reaction.     

Experimental and modeling approaches for food waste composting: A review

Composting has been used as a method to dispose food waste (FW) and recycle organic matter to improve soil structure and fertility. Considering the significance of composting in FW treatment, many researchers have paid their attention on how to improve FW composting efficiency, reduce operating cost, and mitigate the associated environmental damage. This review focuses on the overall studies of FW composting, not only various parameters significantly affecting the processes and final results, but also a number of simulation approaches that are greatly instrumental in well understanding the process mechanism and/or results prediction. Implications of many key ingredients on FW composting performance are also discussed. Perspects of effective laboratory experiments and computer-based simulation are finally investigated, demonstrating many demanding areas for enhanced research efforts, which include the screening of multi-functional additives, volatile organiccompound emission control, necessity of modeling and post-modeling analysis, and usefulness of developing more conjunctive AI-based process control techniques.