Adaptive management: Promises and pitfalls

Proponents of the scientific adaptive management approach argue that it increases knowledge acquisition rates, enhances information flow among policy actors, and provides opportunities for creating shared understandings. However, evidence from efforts to implement the approach in New Brunswick, British Columbia, Canada, and the Columbia River Basin indicates that these promises have not been met. The data show that scientific adaptive management relies excessively on the use of linear systems models, discounts nonscientific forms of knowledge, and pays inadequate attention to policy processes that promote the development of shared understandings among diverse stakeholders. To be effective, new adaptive management efforts will need to incorporate knowledge from multiple sources, make use of multiple systems models, and support new forms of cooperation among stakeholders.     

Mechanical Properties with the Functional Group of Additives for Starch/PVA Blend Film

This paper deals with the mechanical properties and degree of swelling (DS) of starch/PVA blend film with the functional groups i.e., hydroxyl and carboxyl group, of additives. Starch/PVA blend films were prepared by using the mixing process. Glycerol (GL) with 3 hydroxyl group, sorbitol (SO) with 6 hydroxyl group, succinic acid (SA) with 2 carboxyl group, malic acid (MA) with 1 hydroxyl and 2 carboxyl group, tartaric acid (TA) with 2 hydroxyl and 2 carboxyl group and citric acid (CA) with 1 hydroxyl and 3 carboxyl group were used as additives. The results of measured tensile strength (TS) and elongation (%E) verified that both hydroxyl and carboxyl group as a functional groups increased the flexibility and strength of the film. Values of DS for GL-added and SA-added films were low. However, DS values of the films added MA, TA or CA with both hydroxyl and carboxyl group were comparatively high. When the film was dried at low temperature, the properties of the films were evidently improved. The reason is probably because the hydrogen bonding was activated at low temperature.     

Information Network Topologies for Enhanced Local Adaptive Management

We examined the principal effects of different information network topologies for local adaptive management of natural resources. We used computerized agents with adaptive decision algorithms with the following three fundamental constraints: (1) Complete understanding of the processes maintaining the natural resource can never be achieved, (2) agents can only learn by experimentation and information sharing, and (3) memory is limited. The agents were given the task to manage a system that had two states: one that provided high utility returns (desired) and one that provided low returns (undesired). In addition, the threshold between the states was close to the optimal return of the desired state. We found that networks of low to moderate link densities significantly increased the resilience of the utility returns. Networks of high link densities contributed to highly synchronized behavior among the agents, which caused occasional large-scale ecological crises between periods of stable and high utility returns. A constructed network involving a small set of experimenting agents was capable of combining high utility returns with high resilience, conforming to theories underlying the concept of adaptive comanagement. We conclude that (1) the ability to manage for resilience (i.e., to stay clear of the threshold leading to the undesired state as well as the ability to re-enter the desired state following a collapse) resides in the network structure and (2) in a coupled social–ecological system, the systemwide state transition occurs not because the ecological system flips into the undesired state, but because managers lose their capacity to reorganize back to the desired state. An erratum to this article can be found at .     

How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent long term social discount rate?

Theoretical arguments for using a term structure of social discount rates (SDR) that declines with the time horizon have influenced government guidelines in the US and Europe. The certainty equivalent discount rate that often underpins this guidance embodies uncertainty in the primitives of the SDR, such as growth. For distant time horizons the probability distributions of these primitives are ambiguous and the certainty equivalent itself is uncertain. Yet, if a limited set of characteristics of the unknown probability distributions can be agreed upon, ‘sharp’ upper and lower bounds can be defined for the certainty-equivalent SDR. Unfortunately, even with considerable agreement on these features, these bounds are widely spread for horizons beyond 75 years. So while estimates of the present value of intergenerational impacts, including the social cost of carbon, can be bounded in the presence of this ambiguity, they typically remain so imprecise as to provide little practical guidance.     

干旱区城市昌吉降雪及积雪中PGEs含量分布及其影响因素

选择干旱区中小城市昌吉市,对其降雪及积雪中铂族元素(PGEs)含量分布及影响因素进行研究.运用ICP-MS对样品进行分析测定.结果表明,降雪中Rh、Pd、Pt平均含量分别为0.43 ng·L-1(未检出～2.24 ng·L-1)、60.07 ng·L-1(46.66～84.25 ng·L-1)和4.54 ng·L-1(3.02～6.38 ng·L-1).不同场次降雪中PGEs含量存在差异,随雪前干燥期天数加长,降雪中PGEs含量趋于增大;降雪量对PGEs含量也有一定影响,降雪量越小,雪中PGEs含量越高.积雪中Rh、Pd、Pt的平均含量分别为6.65 ng·L-1(2.50～18.80 ng·L-1)、83.45 ng·L-1(46.83～199.20 ng·L-1)和8.17 ng·L-1(4.27～13.78 ng·L-1).积雪中PGEs含量远高于降雪,降雪中PGEs仅来自于单场次降雪对大气PGEs的淋洗,而积雪中PGEs不仅来自于多场次降雪中PGEs的累积,且由于积雪长时间暴露,还源源不断接受了大气干沉降带来的PGEs.各采样点积雪PGEs含量表现出交通区>居民文教区>公园广场区>郊区农田,随功能区不同,积雪中PGEs输入途径与输入量有显著差异,这是造成各功能区积雪PGEs含量不同且具有一定规律性的主要原因.     

Entrepreneur environment management behavior evaluation method derived from environmental economy

Evaluation system can encourage and guide entrepreneurs, and impel them to perform well in environment management. An evaluation method based on advantage structure is established. It is used to analyze entrepreneur environment management behavior in China. Entrepreneur environment management behavior evaluation index system is constructed based on empirical research. Evaluation method of entrepreneurs is put forward, from the point of objective programming-theory to alert entrepreneurs concerned to think much of it, which means to take minimized objective function as comprehensive evaluation result and identify disadvantage structure pattern. Application research shows that overall behavior of Chinese entrepreneurs environmental management are good, specially, environment strategic behavior are best, environmental management behavior are second, cultural behavior ranks last. Application results show the efficiency and feasibility of this method.     

Settlement decisions in blue tits: difference in the use of social information according to age and individual success

Dispersers are expected to assess breeding habitat quality before settlement. Although cues reflecting habitat quality are well studied, social cues have not been as well evaluated. In this paper, we studied breeding habitat selection during 3 years in a natural population of blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus, breeding in nest-boxes. Our aim was to investigate if this species used conspecific density and/or reproductive success of con- and heterospecifics (i.e., social cues) in settlement decisions. The patterns observed were consistent with the idea that juveniles, when dispersing from their natal patches, did not react to any of the cues that we tested. In contrast, breeders that dispersed seemed to respond to both conspecific mean patch reproductive success (PRS) and breeding density of the settlement patch in the year of dispersal, their response differing according to their own reproductive success. Indeed, failed breeders moved to areas with high PRS and low density relative to source patches, while successful breeders behaved the opposite. The comparison between juveniles and adults might be modulated by the limited time available to juveniles to gather information on PRS and density at the end of the dispersing year. Adults lacking these time constraints, however, seemed to rely on these conspecific cues although limited by their own quality. Additionally, breeders were more likely to be immigrants in patches with relatively low breeding success and density the previous year, suggesting that settlement is influenced by multiple cues, which may reveal information on different aspects of habitat and be available at different moments. Collectively, our results support the importance of social cues for blue tits’ settlement.     

The evolution of climate policies - the role of learning and evaluations

All member states of the EU have had to develop climate strategies following the commitment to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. The evolution of the strategies provides insights into the learning that takes place at the level of policy development and offers material for analysing how ex ante and ex post evaluations have contributed to this learning. In the analysis, Finland is used as a case demonstrating different levels and types of learning, from deeper reframing to political learning. The results show that the full potential of the evaluations has not been utilised, partly because they have been constrained by their mandate. Greater openness and transparency in the policy processes would create favourable conditions for independent evaluations that could provide additional input to the policy processes. This would support social and reflexive learning and allow for greater adaptability.     

江汉湖群典型湖泊生态系统健康评价——以梁子湖、洪湖、长湖、斧头湖、武湖为例

湖泊生态系统健康评价对湖泊生态健康状况评定、环境问题诊断和湖泊生态系统管理具有重要意义.根据江汉湖群实际情况和生态特点,选取江汉湖群五大湖泊—梁子湖、长湖、洪湖、斧头湖和武湖为研究对象,采用野外调查、资料收集并结合GIS技术的研究方法,从生物、水质、生境特征及生态压力4个方面选择15个代表性评价指标,构建江汉湖群典型湖泊生态系统健康评价指标体系,并利用基于模糊综合评价模型的评价方法,对江汉湖群五大湖泊生态系统健康进行评价.结果表明,江汉湖群五大湖泊生态健康综合评价得分值为5.47~7.46,梁子湖得分最高,其余依次为斧头湖、洪湖、长湖和武湖.从湖泊生态系统健康等级看,五大湖泊中梁子湖和斧头湖处于比较健康状态,而洪湖、长湖和武湖处于亚健康状态.通过实例分析表明,本研究建立的湖泊生态系统健康评价方法能够较客观系统地评价江汉湖群生态系统健康状况,具有较高的可行性和可靠性,可作为江汉湖群健康诊断的评价方法.本文研究结果可为江汉湖群的分类管理提供较为重要的参考依据.     

A panel study on the relationship between biofuels production and sustainable development

Biomass is one of the renewable energy sources on which policy makers are greatly dependent on since it is a flexible feedstock capable of conversion into electricity, transport liquid fuels and heat by chemical and biological processes on demand. Though numerous publications have examined the relationship of economic growth with renewable energy and other parameters, biomass energy has never been included in these studies. Then, this study examines the causal relationship within a multivariate panel cointegration/error correction framework which combines the cross-section and time series data while allowing for heterogeneity across different provinces. After employing panel data regression model ranging from 2003 through 2012 to examine the relationships of biofuels production with sustainable development in China, the paper concludes that the development of biofuel energy production integrated with the consideration of the improvement of income per capita, and the attraction of more capital investment, does make a significant contribution to economic growth. However, some negative side effects including the increase of greenhouse emissions and the decrease of marginal land still coexist with the economic development. Of course, the importance of these findings lies on their implications and their adoption on strategic policies.