基于UAHP的采空区稳定性模糊综合评判

为准确评判矿山采空区稳定性等级,通过分析采空区稳定性各影响因素,确定地质、水文、采空区几何参数、环境等4个2级指标为影响其稳定性的主要因素。运用层次分析法(AHP)并结合模糊数学理论,建立采空区稳定性2级模糊综合评判模型。用区间数表示评判结果,分析处理评判矩阵得到专家评判的相似度和差异度,进而获取专家评判的可信度,建立基于不确定型层次分析法(UAHP)的采空区稳定性模糊评判方法。实例计算结果表明:在Ⅰ级评判指标中,地质构造、周围开采影响、地下水活动程度、跨度对采空区稳定性影响较大;用该采空区的稳定性等级为Ⅱ级。用该方法能得出各影响因素的综合权重,准确评判采空区稳定性等级。     

Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles

We exploit recent advances in climate science to develop a physically consistent, yet surprisingly simple, model of climate policy. It seems that key economic models have greatly overestimated the delay between carbon emissions and warming, and ignored the saturation of carbon sinks that takes place when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide rises. This has important implications for climate policy. If carbon emissions are abated, damages are avoided almost immediately. Therefore it is optimal to reduce emissions significantly in the near term and bring about a slow transition to optimal peak warming, even if optimal steady-state/peak warming is high. The optimal carbon price should start relatively high and grow relatively fast.     

Public perception of air pollution sources across Europe

Air pollution is one of the primary concerns of our society for its effect on human health and the environment. Among the policy measures that can be put in place to limit air pollutant emissions, end-of-pipe technologies and/or regulatory instruments may be implemented through legislative acts. Also, equally important are behavioural measures, requiring citizens’ active involvement. The success of any measure to limit pollutant emissions requires the acceptance by the citizens that, in turn, implies a correct perception of the main pollutant emission drivers. We present here the comparison between the public perception of air pollution sources and the real-world situation through a survey carried out in seven European countries and involving 16 101 respondents. Our study shows a dramatic underestimation of the contribution of the agri-food sector to air pollution. This result is common to all respondents in the seven countries examined and only to a small extent depends on gender, age and socio-economic status of the respondents.     

Spatial interactions in habitat conservation: Evidence from prairie pothole easements

We examine the role of spatial interactions in conservation easements placed on prairie pothole habitat in western Canada. One of the goals of the conservation easement program we study is to protect contiguous habitat. We identify endogenous spatial interactions among conservation easements and government protected land, independent of spatially correlated landscape features and local economic shocks that influence easement enrollment. We present evidence that easements increase the likelihood of subsequent easements on neighboring land. Government-protected land appears to have little effect on the location of conservation easements. These results imply that conservation agencies have leveraged past conservation investment to enroll more contiguous habitat in permanent easements through a combination of targeting and positive social interactions among neighboring landowners.     

Factors influencing perceptions of aquatic ecosystems

While factors influencing perceptions of drinking water have been well studied, those of aquatic ecosystems have been to lesser extent. We conducted a review to improve awareness of these factors. Environmental factors found to influence public perceptions of aquatic ecosystems were presence/absence of water plants and algae, presence/absence of floating debris, the odor, movement (for flowing waters) and clarity/turbidity of the water, and the type, condition, setting, naturalness, and overall aesthetic appeal of the ecosystem. Sociocultural factors found to influence public perceptions of aquatic ecosystems included age, education, gender, and place-based knowledge. We provide perspectives of how managers can better meet the diverse social demands placed on aquatic ecosystems. The importance and benefits of considering these perspectives may be especially beneficial where significant multi-generational and culturally relevant place-based knowledge exist.     

Conservation mycology in Australia and the potential role of citizen science

Fungi are undoubtedly important for ecosystem functioning; however, they have been omitted or given scant attention in most biodiversity policy documents, management plans, and formal conservation schedules throughout the world. This oversight may be due to a general lack of awareness in the scientific community and compounded by a scarcity of mycology‐associated curricula at the tertiary level and a lack of mycologists in research institutions. Although molecular techniques advance the systematic cataloging of fungi and facilitate insights into fungal communities, the scarcity of professional mycologists in the environmental sciences hampers conservation efforts. Conversely, citizen science initiatives are making significant contributions to the mycology discipline by increasing awareness and extending the scope of fungal surveys. Future research by professional and amateur mycologists into the distribution of fungi and their function in ecosystems will help identify wider and more effective conservation goals.     

Are naked and common mole-rats eusocial and if so, why?

Eusociality in mammals is defined in the present paper by the following criteria: reproductive altruism (which involves reproductive division of labor and cooperative alloparental brood care), overlap of adult generations, and permanent (lifelong) philopatry. We argue that additional criteria such as the existence of castes, colony size, reproductive skew, and social cohesion are not pertinent to the definition of eusociality in mammals. According to our definition of mammalian eusociality, several rodent species of the African family Bathyergidae can be considered eusocial, including the naked mole-rat (Heterocephalus glaber), Damaraland mole-rat (Cryptomys damarensis), and several additional, if not all, species in the genus Cryptomys. Furthermore, some species of social voles (like Microtus ochrogaster) may also fulfill criteria of mammalian eusociality. Understanding the evolution of eusociality in mole-rats requires answers to two primary questions: (1) What are the preconditions for the development of their eusocial systems? (2) Why do offspring remain in the natal group rather than dispersing and reproducing? Eusociality in mammals is by definition a special case of monogamy (more specifically: monogyny one female breeding), involving prolonged pair bonding for more than one breeding period. We argue that eusociality in mole-rats evolved from a monogamous mating system where cooperative brood care was already established. A tendency for group living is considered to be an ancestral (plesiomorph) trait among African bathyergid mole-rats, linking them to other hystricognath rodents. A solitary lifestyle seen in some genera, such as Bathyergus, Georychus, and Heliophobius, is assumed to be a derived trait that arose independently in different lineages of bathyergids, possibly as a consequence of selective constraints associated with the subterranean environment. In proximate terms, in eusocial mole-rats either puberty is assumed to be developmentally delayed so that under natural conditions most animals die before dispersal is triggered (e.g., in the case of Heterocephalus) or dispersal is induced only by an incidental encounter with an unfamiliar, yet adequate sexual partner (e.g., in the case of Cryptomys). Ultimately, a combination of strategies involving either dispersal and/or philopatry can be beneficial, especially in a highly unpredictable environment. If genetic relatedness among siblings is high (e.g., a coefficient of relatedness of 0.5 or more), then philopatry would not invoke an appreciable loss of fitness, especially if the cost of dispersing is higher than staying within the natal group. High genetic relatedness is more likely in a monogamous mating system or a highly inbred population. In this paper, we argue that the preconditions for eusociality in bathyergid mole-rats were a monogamous mating system and high genetic relatedness among individuals. We argue against the aridity food-distribution hypothesis (AFDH) that suggests a causal relationship between cooperative foraging for patchily distributed resources and the origin of eusociality. The AFDH may explain group size dynamics of social mole-rats as a function of the distribution and availability of resources but it is inadequate to explain the formation of eusocial societies of mole-rats, especially with respect to providing preconditions conducive for the emergence of eusociality.     

A molecular genetic analysis of social structure, dispersal, and interpack relationships of the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus )

The African wild dog is a highly social, pack-living predator of the African woodland and savannah. The archetypal wild dog pack consists of a single dominant breeding pair, their offspring, and non-breeding adults who are either offspring or siblings of one of the breeding pair. Non-breeding adults cooperate in hunting, provisioning and the protection of young. From these observations follows the prediction that the genetic structure of wild dogs packs should resemble that of a multigenerational family, with all same-sexed adults and offspring within a pack related as sibs or half-sibs. Additionally, a higher kinship between females from neighboring packs should be evident if females tend to have small dispersal distances relative to males. We test these predictions through analysis of mitochondrial DNA control region sequences and 14 microsatellite loci in nine wild dog packs from Kruger National Park, Republic of South Africa. We show that as predicted, African wild dog packs generally consist of an unrelated alpha male and female, subdominant close relatives, and offspring of the breeding pair. Sub-dominant wild dogs occasionally reproduce but their offspring rarely survive to 1 year of age. Relatedness influences the timing and location of dispersal events as dispersal events frequently coincide with a change in pack dominance hierarchy and dispersers often move to areas with a high proportion of close relatives. Received: 22 February 1996 / Accepted after revision: 16 November 1996     

Is boldness affected by group composition in young-of-the-year perch (Perca fluviatilis)?

In young-of-the-year perch (Perca fluviatilis), individuals within groups differed in the degree of boldness, estimated by habitat utilisation and feeding activity in visual contact with a potential predator. We looked at changes in individual behaviour in connection with change of group composition. During the first period, perch were randomly assigned to groups, and time spent in open habitat versus in vegetation and number of prey attacks were registered. The perch were then categorised into personality types (shy, bold, intermediate) according to their behaviour. During the second period, fish were observed when sorted into new groups, each containing only one personality type. Shy individuals showed the largest changes in behaviour, and increased both the time spent in the open and the number of prey attacks when placed into the new groups. Feeding activity in shy fish during the second period was affected by group composition during the first period. After regrouping, bold individuals decreased their time in the open, whereas intermediate individuals did not change behaviour. Time in the open habitat was, to some extent, influenced by the behaviour of the other members of the group, but number of prey attacks was not. The behaviour of fish of the different personality types we have defined in this study seemed to be based on innate traits, but also modified by the influence of other group members and by habituation to the environment.Communicated by J.Krause     

Gregarious behaviour in a salamander: attraction to conspecific chemical cues in burrow choice

Gregarious behaviour (i.e. living in groups in contrast to a solitary life) is commonly observed in mammals, but rarely documented in amphibians. Environmental features and/or animal mutual attractions can promote the formation of aggregations that may both reduce the risks of dehydration and predation and increase mate access and fitness. Luschan’s salamander (Mertensiella luschani) lives in permanently arid Mediterranean environments; individuals shelter in cracks and crevices and leave only during favourable periods. In this study we examined the role of chemical tracks, in self and conspecific recognition (i.e. gregarious/solitary behaviour), on the social structure of this species. Our results show that juveniles and adults of both sexes use chemical scents deposited on substrate to relocate their shelter. In contrast to numerous other salamander species, Luschan’s salamanders also use social information, conveyed by conspecific scents, to identify a safe shelter. Furthermore, this scent marking does not play a role in sexual attraction but allows sex discrimination. This species exhibits gregarious behaviour (i.e. conspecific attraction) as a possible adaptation to dry environments. We discuss both ultimate and proximate factors in the evolution from a solitary to a gregarious life.