Forecasting Resilience in Arctic Societies: Creating Tools for Assessing Social–Hydrological Systems1

Altaweel, Mark R., Lilian N. Alessa, and Andrew D. Kliskey, 2009. Forecasting Resilience in Arctic Societies: Creating Tools for Assessing Social–Hydrological Systems. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1379‐1389. Abstract: Arctic communities are increasingly faced with social–ecological changes that act at variable speeds and spatial scales. Such changes will affect vital resources, particularly water supplies. Currently, there are few computational tools that integrate multiple social and environmental processes in order to aid communities’ adaptation to change through decision support systems. This paper proposes a modeling and simulation approach that can integrate such processes at different spatiotemporal scales in order to address issues affecting community water supplies. In this paper, a modeling and simulation tool is developed and applied to a case study on the Seward Peninsula. Initial results, using both field observations and computation, show projected patterns of water use, perceptions of water availability, and long‐term consumption trends. More broadly, the paper demonstrates the need for developing tools that address issues at the community level for better understanding human and hydrological interactions and policy decisions affecting water supplies.     

Combining hazard,exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management

Flood risk assessments provide inputs for the evaluation of flood risk management (FRM) strategies. Traditionally, such risk assessments provide estimates of loss of life and economic damage. However, the effect of policy measures aimed at reducing risk also depends on the capacity of households to adapt and respond to floods, which in turn largely depends on their social vulnerability. This study shows how a joint assessment of hazard, exposure and social vulnerability provides valuable information for the evaluation of FRM strategies. The adopted methodology uses data on hazard and exposure combined with a social vulnerability index. The relevance of this state-of-the-art approach taken is exemplified in a case-study of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. The results show that not only a substantial share of the population can be defined as socially vulnerable, but also that the population is very heterogeneous, which is often ignored in traditional flood risk management studies. It is concluded that FRM measures, such as individual mitigation, evacuation or flood insurance coverage should not be applied homogenously across large areas, but instead should be tailored to local characteristics based on the socioeconomic characteristics of individual households and neighborhoods.     

Human-derived cell lines to study xenobiotic metabolism

In vitro systems make for rapid identification of xenobiotic effects and can be used to study cellular and subcellular toxicity mechanisms. In this report the metabolic competence of two human-derived cell lines, a hepatic (Hep G2) and a pulmonary one (A549) was tested. In the two cell systems the capability to activate Benzo[a]Pyrene through the cytochrome P450 enzyme system and to form reactive metabolites was analysed. ³H-BaP and the scintillation counting analysis were used to show the differences of the metabolic activity in Hep G2 and A549. A similar time course of ³H-BaP uptake was observed in the cell systems. Nevertheless, in the two cell lines the distribution of radioactive metabolites seemed to reflect a specific tissue response to toxicity.     

Identifying the role of conservation biology for solving the environmental crisis

Humans are altering their living environment to an extent that could cause environmental collapse. Promoting change into environmental sustainability is therefore urgent. Despite a rapid expansion in conservation biology, appreciation of underlying causes and identification of long-term solutions have largely been lacking. I summarized knowledge regarding the environmental crisis, and argue that the most important contributions toward solutions come from economy, political sciences, and psychology. Roles of conservation biology include providing environmental protection until sustainable solutions have been found, evaluating the effectiveness of implemented solutions, and providing societies with information necessary to align effectively with environmental values. Because of the potential disciplinary discrepancy between finding long-term solutions and short-term protection, we may face critical trade-offs between allocations of resources toward achieving sustainability. Since biological knowledge is required for such trade-offs, an additional role for conservation biologists may be to provide guidance toward finding optimal strategies in such trade-offs.     

Predicting particle deposition on HVAC heat exchangers

Particles in indoor environments may deposit on the surfaces of heat exchangers that are used in heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Such deposits can lead to performance degradation and indoor air quality problems. We present a model of fin-and-tube heat-exchanger fouling that deterministically simulates particle impaction, gravitational settling, and Brownian diffusion and uses a Monte Carlo simulation to account for impaction due to air turbulence. The model predicts that <2% of submicron particles will deposit on heat exchangers with air flows and fin spacings that are typical of HVAC systems. For supermicron particles, deposition increases with particle size. The dominant deposition mechanism for 1–10 μm particles is impaction on fin edges. Gravitational settling, impaction, and air turbulence contribute to deposition for particles larger than 10 μm. Gravitational settling is the dominant deposition mechanism for lower air velocities, and impaction on refrigerant tubes is dominant for higher velocities. We measured deposition fractions for 1–16 μm particles at three characteristic air velocities. On average, the measured results show more deposition than the model predicts for an air speed of 1.5 m s⁻¹. The amount that the model underpredicts the measured data increases at higher velocities and especially for larger particles, although the model shows good qualitative agreement with the measured deposition fractions. Discontinuities in the heat-exchanger fins are hypothesized to be responsible for the increase in measured deposition. The model and experiments reported here are for isothermal conditions and do not address the potentially important effects of heat transfer and water phase change on deposition.     

三效催化转化器智能故障诊断系统知识库设计

在分析三效催化转化器故障诊断知识特点的基础上,采用一些措施构建知识库,如采用神经网络方法对转化器工作状态参数进行处理,采用多层前馈神经网络模型和自组织神经网络模型获取知识,采用产生式规则形式和二元化产生式规则形式表达知识,设计量化模块和知识库模块转化知识,并采用多个神经网络来记忆知识。应用效果表明,三效催化转化器神经网络故障诊断专家系统的预报准确率较高,具有较大的实用性。