基于可解释性机器学习的城市O3驱动因素挖掘

受前体物排放和气象条件等因素共同驱动,大气臭氧(O₃)已成为影响城市夏季环境空气质量的主要污染物.目前物理化学机制驱动的演绎模型在进行O₃污染解析时需要的模型参数众多,运算时效性较差;数据驱动的归纳模型运算效率高,但存在可解释性差等问题.通过建立可解释性数据驱动的Correlation-ML-SHAP模型,Correlation模块挖掘O₃浓度关联影响因素,机器学习ML模块耦合可解释性SHAP模块计算各驱动因素对O₃浓度的影响贡献,实现对驱动因素的定量解析,并以晋城市2021年夏季O₃污染过程为例开展应用研究.结果表明,Correlation-ML-SHAP模型能够挖掘并利用强驱动因素模拟O₃浓度和量化影响贡献,其中ML模块采用XGBoost模型模拟准确度最佳. 2021年夏季晋城市O₃污染强驱动因素为：气温、日照强度、湿度和前体物排放水平,贡献权重为：32.1%、 21.3%、 16.5%和15.6%,其中气温、日照强度和前体物排放...     

Culturally correct song dialects are correlated with male age and female song preferences in wild populations of brown-headed cowbirds

Variation in vocal behavior among local populations of songbirds may be significant to females in mate choice. In a study of dialect populations of brown-headed cowbirds, estradiol-implanted females from two dialects held the pre-copulatory lordosis posture longer in response to playback of the local flight whistle song than to foreign whistle types from adjacent and more distant dialects. Females were held in captivity for a relatively brief period prior to testing and received no tutoring so discrimination was based solely on experience in the wild. This is the first study to show evidence of discrimination by female cowbirds based on flight whistle type. Evidence is presented from one of the study dialects that the majority of yearling male cowbirds are vocally distinct from resident adults in having either foreign or incomplete local whistles. Although these yearlings are fully mature sexually, they have little or no mating success. The correlation between female whistle preference and male mating success suggests that the ability to give the correct local whistle type may be a characteristic used by females to assess age and quality of a potential mate. A learned female preference for the predominant local song type may be a factor in the stability of these dialects by making it adaptive for males to conform to the local dialect.     

Proposal of Indicators to Assess Urban Sustainability in Brazil

The research related here focuses on municipal situations where problems of sustainability may be defined and tackled on the basis of bottom-up management procedures with the participation of organized society. The aim is to build management models that may be implemented with reasonable administrative effort and cost. Implementation pursues the target of approaching a sustainable situation in the municipality. Environmental parameters for an ideal municipality with undefined geographical location are presented. For each parameter, a set of indicators is developed that can measure the prospect of sustainability. The indicators are defined in terms of numbers or literal concepts according to the possibility of measurement. Examples of management models are presented, which are able to approach the situation defined as sustainable by the indicators. The basic management tool is the learning curve of targeted communities, which is experimentally developed and applied. The indicators are grouped according to their range of applicability.     

Ranging of songs with the song type on use of different cues in Carolina wrens: effects of familiarity

Male territorial song birds are usually spaced far apart and most often hear conspecific song after it has been degraded by propagation through the environment. Their ability to use the degradation of songs to assess the distance of a singing rival without approaching (called ranging) presumably increases the efficiency of defending a territory. In order to assess degradation in a song the receiver needs to compare the characteristics of the received song to its characteristics at the source or at different distances. Earlier experiments on ranging in species with song repertoires have suggested that prior familiarity with the particular song type is necessary for ranging. Here I show that male Carolina wrens (Thryothorus ludovicianus) can use either temporal or spectral characteristics for ranging song types which they were unlikely to have heard previously. Playbacks consisting of only one song prevented subjects' close-range experience with the loudspeaker, and flights beyond the loudspeaker provided direct evidence for over-assessment of distance when songs were degraded. Because ranging of songs was not affected by the degree of familiarity with the song type, this experiment provides no evidence that song repertoires hinder ranging in Carolina wrens, as suggested by Morton's ranging hypothesis. Instead, at least approximate ranging of songs is evidently possible by assessment of degradation in general features of a species' songs. Received: 9 August 1996 / Accepted after revision: 15 February 1997     

Adaptation or conflict? Responses to climate change in water management in Bangladesh

The potential of climate change to impact local conflict and cooperation over natural resources has received relatively little attention. Bangladesh floodplains are highly vulnerable to environmental stresses that are worsening with climate change, and community organisations have to respond to water insecurity − seasonally too little or too much. Two case studies based on action research in contrasting water and climate stressed floodplain environments in Bangladesh investigate local conflicts over water management that worsened when water regimes changed. By overcoming conflicts and improving adaptation for all local actors the cases reveal the importance of local knowledge, innovations in institutions, external facilitation, and incentives provided by disadvantaged groups who contribute towards costs in return for a share in decision making power and better adapted water management. The cases show how community organisations diversified their responsibilities and took up the challenge of water management to address local priorities and overcome conflicts. Without a more flexible and enabling approach, public investments in adaptation are likely to focus on strengthening existing water management infrastructure without understanding local social interactions and complexity. This may strengthen elite dominance and local conflicts if there is no comparable investment in developing robust and fair local institutions.     

INVESTMENT SEQUENCING RECOGNIZING EXTERNALITIES IN WATER DESALTING1

ABSTRACT. The failure to recognize the learning process in new technologies such as desalting may lead to incorrect water resource investment decisions for two reasons. First, to neglect cost reductions stemming from “learning by doing” implies an overestimation of desalting costs. Second, since learning in a particular plant may result in external (learning) benefits to other plants, these may serve as the basis for a subsidy intended to internalize such benefits. Accordingly, the research reported below includes an estimation of learning functions for desalting and the results of a formulation designed to measure external benefits on the basis of these learning functions. These results are then incorporated into a decision framework for water resource investments which recognizes uncertainty in determining optimal timing of desalting construction.     

Associative learning of odor with food- or blood-meal by Culex quinquefasciatus Say (Diptera: Culicidae)

The ability of many insects to learn has been documented. However, a limited number of studies examining associative learning in medically important arthropods has been published. Investigations into the associative learning capabilities of Culex quinquefasciatus Say were conducted by adapting methods commonly used in experiments involving Hymenoptera. Male and female mosquitoes were able to learn a conditioned stimulus that consisted of an odor not normally encountered in nature (synthetic strawberry or vanilla extracts) in association with an unconditioned stimulus consisting of either a sugar (males and females) or blood (females) meal. Such information could lead to a better understanding of the ability of mosquitoes to locate and select host and food resources in nature.     

Song ranging by the dusky antbird,Cercomacra tyrannina: ranging without song learning

In a population of dusky antbirds (Cercomacra tyrannina), less aggressive responses to distance-degraded playbacks than to undegraded playbacks of pair duets show that this tropical suboscine passerine uses sound degradation to range distance from singing conspecifics. This is the first example of song-ranging in a species that does not learn songs, supporting the hypothesis that ranging preceded the song learning that occurs in more recently evolved passerine birds (oscines). Both sexes sing and are able to use song degradation to range distance from singers when their sex-specific song is played back. Received: 27 May 1994/Accepted after revision: 24 March 1996     

A new synergetic paradigm in environmental numerical modeling: Hybrid models combining deterministic and machine learning components

A new type of environmental numerical models, hybrid environmental numerical models (HEMs) based on combining deterministic modeling and machine learning components, is introduced and formulated. Conceptual and practical possibilities of developing HEM, as an optimal synergetic combination of the traditional deterministic/first principles modeling (like that used for solving PDEs on the sphere representing model dynamics of global climate models) and machine learning components (like accurate and fast neural network emulations of model physics or chemistry processes), are discussed. Examples of developed HEMs (hybrid climate models and a hybrid wind–wave ocean model) illustrate the feasibility and efficiency of the new approach for modeling extremely complex multidimensional systems.     

Effects of different levels of song overlapping on singing behaviour in male territorial nightingales (Luscinia megarhynchos)

In signalling interactions, animals can directly address information to a specific individual. Vocal overlapping is such a signalling strategy used in songbirds, anurans, and insects. In songbirds, numerous studies using high rates of song overlap to simulate an escalating situation have shown that song overlapping is perceived as a threatening signal by interacting and by listening (eavesdropping) individuals, indicating a high social relevance of song overlapping. Here we present a playback experiment on nocturnally singing male territorial nightingales (Luscinia megarhynchos). Using three different rates of song overlap (1, 25, or 50%), we tested whether or not lower levels of song overlapping act as a signal of aggressive intent and if birds would increase the intensity of their response with increasing level of song overlapping. Subjects did not vary song duration in response to the different playback treatments but increasingly interrupted their singing with increasing overlap by the three playback treatments. The effects persisted even after the playback ceased to overlap and switched to an alternating singing mode. These results expand on previous studies by showing that song overlapping is interpreted as an aggressive signal even when it is used at low or moderate levels. They suggest that, within the range tested here, increasing levels of song overlapping are perceived to be increasingly aggressive.