江苏省环境与人口、经济的协调发展分析——基于环境安全视角

协调发展既是国民经济乐观发展的客观要求,同时也是人类可持续发展不可或缺的组成部分。江苏省协调发展问题的研究有利于解决环境问题的定位,发现环境发展中的薄弱点与发展潜力,促进环境与人口、经济的协调发展。以环境安全理论为依托,以强调协调发展为出发点,建立江苏省环境与人口、经济系统的协调发展指标体系,应用改进的层次分析法（AHP）及变异系数法权重均值赋权,借鉴模糊数学中隶属度函数来计算协调系数。结果表明：2001~2010年江苏省环境与人口、经济系统的平均协调水平处于基本协调状态,并且有稳中上升的趋势,协调发展前景乐观;同时分析并提出了建立健全江苏省协调发展机制、探讨环境安全维护体系建设、制订缓解人口压力政策等建议     

In-situ electrochemical measurements of total concentration and speciation of heavy metals in acid mine drainage (AMD): assessment of the use of anodic stripping voltammetry

We assessed the use of anodic stripping voltammetry (ASV) for in-situ determinations of both total concentration and speciation of dissolved heavy metals (Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn) in acid mine drainage (AMD). In the Kwangyang Au–Ag mine area of South Korea, different sites with varying water chemistry within an AMD were studied with a field portable anodic stripping voltammeter. Anodic stripping voltammetry after wet oxidation (acidification) was very sensitive enough to determine total concentration of dissolved Cd because Cd was dominantly present as ‘labile’ species, whilst the technique was not so effective for determining total Cu especially in the downstream sites from the retention pond, due to its complexation with organic matter. For dissolved Pb, the concentrations determined by ASV after wet oxidation generally agreed with those by ICP-AES. In the downstream samples (pH>5), however, ASV data after wet oxidation were lower than ICP-AES data because a significant fraction of dissolved Pb was present in those samples as ‘inert’ species associated with colloidal iron oxide particles. The determination of total dissolved Zn by ASV after wet oxidation appeared to be unsatisfactory for the samples with high Cu content, possibly due to the interference by the formation of Zn–Cu intermetallic compounds on the mercury coated electrode. In AMD samples with high dissolved iron, use of ultraviolet irradiation was not effective for determining total concentrations because humate destruction by UV irradiation possibly resulted in the removal of a part of dissolved heavy metals from waters through the precipitation of iron hydroxides.     

Changes in earth’s dipole

The dipole moment of Earth’s magnetic field has decreased by nearly over the past 150 years and by about 30% over the past 2,000 years according to archeomagnetic measurements. Here, we explore the causes and the implications of this rapid change. Maps of the geomagnetic field on the core–mantle boundary derived from ground-based and satellite measurements reveal that most of the present episode of dipole moment decrease originates in the southern hemisphere. Weakening and equatorward advection of normal polarity magnetic field by the core flow, combined with proliferation and growth of regions where the magnetic polarity is reversed, are reducing the dipole moment on the core–mantle boundary. Growth of these reversed flux regions has occurred over the past century or longer and is associated with the expansion of the South Atlantic Anomaly, a low-intensity region in the geomagnetic field that presents a radiation hazard at satellite altitudes. We address the speculation that the present episode of dipole moment decrease is a precursor to the next geomagnetic polarity reversal. The paleomagnetic record contains a broad spectrum of dipole moment fluctuations with polarity reversals typically occurring during dipole moment lows. However, the dipole moment is stronger today than its long time average, indicating that polarity reversal is not likely unless the current episode of moment decrease continues for a thousand years or more.     

江苏沿江开发研究

随着中国加入WTO和经济全球化进程的加快,长江三角洲以其独特的滨江临海的区位和发达的制造业基础,正在成为新的投资热点地区。江苏省沿江地区是长江三角洲重要的组成部分,拥有800多km的长江岸线和8个经济发达、人才资源优势明显的经济中心城市。传统的制造业基础和相对低廉的加工成本、商务成本,使江苏沿江开发既有对外来资本的吸引力,又有自我发展的内生机制。重点研究了全球化背景下江苏沿江开发的战略问题,主要包括：①江苏沿江地区开发的环境和条件比较分析;②沿江产业带重组与实施跨江开发;③再造新战略据点;④打破行政区界限沿江联动实施区域一体化,等等。最后指出：加快江苏沿江开发,必须科学规划、统筹安排,做到空间合理、时间有序,同时考虑沿江的环境容量有限,应实施可持续发展和南北联动的开发战略,拓展沿江的开发空间,提升沿江的产业发展水平。     

The nature and significance of public exposure to arsenic: a review of its relevance to South West England

In South West England, more than two hundred years of intensive exploitation of metalliferous ore deposits, combined with the natural processes of pedogenesis from mineral-rich parent rocks, has resulted in the creation of a aignificant area of arsenic-contaminated wastes and soils. The scale of arsenic dispersion by natural and anthropogenic processes is such that 722 km² of land contains concentrations of arsenic in excess of 110 g g^–1, more than twice the maximum that might be expected in a normal soil.The general rationale for the clean-up of derelict and contaminated mining sites often includes aesthetic factors and the desirability of preventing the dispersion of contaminants beyond the site boundaries. Only in extreme cases is public health directly invoked as justification for remediation. In South West England, if arsenic constitutes a genuine threat to the public, an increased rate of site remediation would be justified. The primary purpose of this review is to establish whether or not widespread arsenic contamination (principally of soils) has any measurable effects on public health in South West England, and how this might affect current contaminated site remediation policy. The review is based on data from previous research in the region, and other relevant international studies of mining and smelting communities, and other populations exposed to elevated arsenic concentrations. The literature reviewed also includes the determination of the extent and sources of contamination, and pathways between source and man.While the contamination of potable waters in some countries has led to measurable health effects, this scenario has not yet been identified in South West England, and there is little reason to believe that significantly contaminated potable water supplies would escape detection for extended periods of time under the current monitoring regime.In relative terms (based on both globaland local data), one of the most significant links between contaminated soils and humans appears to be contaminated food stuffs. In absolute terms, such exposure is low due to the natural constraints on arsenic uptake by herbage, cereal crops and vegetables, and the food chain does not appear to have been significantly compromised in South West England. Chronic health effects are unlikely as excessive arsenic concentrations in locally grown food crops remain rare.With the problems of confounding medical and social factors, it is not surprising that studies in South West England have failed to identify chronic exposure to arsenic at very low concentrations as a significant health risk. Those studies that indicate otherwise do not stand up to close scrutiny. It appears that the number of additional deaths arising from the widespread arsenic contamination in South West England is small. The relative benefits of a costly statistical study to actually determine the number of additional deaths might be considered minimal, but one major area could benefit from further studies: the sensitivity of certain population sub-groups to environmental arsenic exposure. Of particular interest are children, for whom significant exposure to arsenic via soil ingestion may be occurring.Based on available information, there appears to be no justification for a large programme of site remediation. Resources should, however, be expended on enlightening the general public, and private and governmental organisations as regards the gap between the perceived and actual significance of arsenic contamination in South West England.To whom correspondence should be addressed.     

A botanical importance rating system for estuaries

In many semi-arid areas, estuaries are threatened because of freshwater impoundment. Estuaries are important sites for ecological diversity and, increasingly, for recreation. A system has been developed which rates estuaries according to their botanical importance. A formula allows a single numerical importance score to be calculated. The area cover of each estuarine plant community type (i.e. intertidal salt marsh, submerged macrophytes, reed/sedge swamps and supratidal salt marsh) and its importance in the estuary forms the basis of the score. The ‘ecological condition’ of the plant community and the community richness within the estuary are incorporated into the formula. The formula is effective in determining the botanical importance of estuaries. Further methods to determine the zoological, physical and socio-economic importance of estuaries need to be developed to allow the overall importance of estuaries to be determined.     

基于SPSS的苏北地区可持续发展能力空间分异研究

以区域可持续发展能力建设为切入点,结合苏北地区的实际,建立适合该地区的可持续发展能力评价指标体系,然后运用SPSS软件的因子分析和聚类分析的方法,对苏北地区可持续发展能力进行综合评价。结果表明,区内各县市可持续发展能力差异较大,但其空间分异呈现出某些特征:经济可持续发展能力呈现由地区东南部向中间递减的“一”字型空间格局;资源环境可持续发展能力呈现由地区中部分别向东、向西递减的“凸”字型空间格局;社会可持续发展能力呈“M”字型空间格局;综合可持续发展能力呈“H”字型空间格局;以中心城市为核心,可持续发展能力向周边呈辐射状递减趋势。根据这些空间分异特征,提出了一些促进苏北地区可持续发展能力建设的建议。     

江苏规划高速公路网生态环境影响研究

以RS和GIS为基础，运用遥感信息提取、编制自然保护专题系列图、系列图与规划高速公路网叠加、缓冲分析、统计分析等方法，对江苏省规划高速公路网生态环境影响进行分析。规划的5纵9横6联线路中的9条，对127个不同类型保护区中的9个有影响。11个过江通道中的5个对沿江饮用水源保护地有影响。规划高速公路占用的土地中76．74％是基本农田。跨越太湖的沪宁复线将加重梅梁湾、五里湖的水质富营养化。针对上述问题，从保护生态环境的角度提出6大对策：避绕生态保护对象，修改跨太湖线路方案，合理规划穿越山地丘陵区的线路，减少平原区生态破坏，调整过江通道与饮用水源地的交叉关系，保护白鳍豚生存环境安全。     

江苏省耕地面积变化与经济增长的协整性与因果关系分析

江苏省近年来随着社会经济的发展,耕地面积急剧减少,土地利用变化和经济增长二者关系更为明显和完整,具有极好的典型性和代表性。论文利用近20年来耕地面积、经济增长与城市化水平之间的长序列统计资料,对江苏省1981～2004年间的耕地面积与经济增长及城市化水平的协整性和因果关系进行了研究。研究表明:耕地面积、GDP与城市化水平均是不平稳的时间序列,直接对其进行回归分析是不严谨的;江苏省耕地面积变化与经济增长之间不具有长期的协整性;江苏省耕地面积与GDP、城市化水平之间只存在单向的因果关系。通过研究,认为目前的土地利用方式极不合理。因此,降低耕地减少速度,提高土地利用效率是非常紧迫的战略问题。     

福建中奥陶世——晚侏罗世地层的古地磁学研究

福建古生界至中生界部分地层古地磁研究认为,华南地块的主体部分首先于中奥陶世时期即已拼合,作为一个整体由南纬23.8°向北移动,二叠纪之后越过赤道,继续北移,直至侏罗纪末到达北纬19.6°的位置.而华南地块同扬子地块的拼合是在加里东末期开始的,至少可以认为是在早石炭纪之前两地块就靠近了。这一时期,华南地块和扬子地块的地质构造运动十分活跃.