基于SPA法的盾构隧道施工邻近桥梁安全评价

为实现盾构隧道施工邻近桥梁安全评价,基于大量的文献研究和工程实践,从地质水文条件、盾构施工参数、隧道工程条件、桥梁自身条件和组织管理风险5方面构建涵盖16个因素的评价指标体系,并确定各指标的分级标准,提出1套基于集对分析理论(SPA)的安全评价方法;通过构建各指标等级间的联系度隶属函数,基于G1-CRITIC法确定综合...     

石墨烯对RDX机械感度及爆轰性能的影响

炸药添加剂对改善单质炸药安全与能量特性有重要作用。为研究纳米微颗粒石墨烯(Gr)对黑索今(RDX)热性能、机械感度及爆轰性能的影响,设计不同比例含量的Gr/RDX混合药剂配方,并对其进行差热、撞击感度、摩擦感度、爆速及钢凹深度的测试分析。结果表明:与纯RDX相比,Gr/RDX混合药剂DSC（差示扫描量热）曲线分解峰宽变窄、峰形更尖锐,Gr加速RDX的放热过程;Gr/RDX混合药剂撞击感度与摩擦感度随Gr比例含量的增加呈先降低后升高的趋势,少量Gr可使RDX变得钝感,含量增加时,敏化作用逐渐表现出来;Gr/RDX混合药剂爆速与钢凹深度随Gr比例含量的增加而降低;Gr含量为1%时可显著降低RDX的机械感度,而能量基本不衰减。Gr可作为RDX功能添加剂,在确保能量输出的同时,可降低机械感度、提高安全性。     

Fundamental insights on when social network data are most critical for conservation planning

As declines in biodiversity accelerate, there is an urgent imperative to ensure that every dollar spent on conservation counts toward species protection. Systematic conservation planning is a widely used approach to achieve this, but there is growing concern that it must better integrate the human social dimensions of conservation to be effective. Yet, fundamental insights about when social data are most critical to inform conservation planning decisions are lacking. To address this problem, we derived novel principles to guide strategic investment in social network information for systematic conservation planning. We considered the common conservation problem of identifying which social actors, in a social network, to engage with to incentivize conservation behavior that maximizes the number of species protected. We used simulations of social networks and species distributed across network nodes to identify the optimal state-dependent strategies and the value of social network information. We did this for a range of motif network structures and species distributions and applied the approach to a small-scale fishery in Kenya. The value of social network information depended strongly on both the distribution of species and social network structure. When species distributions were highly nested (i.e., when species-poor sites are subsets of species-rich sites), the value of social network information was almost always low. This suggests that information on how species are distributed across a network is critical for determining whether to invest in collecting social network data. In contrast, the value of social network information was greatest when social networks were highly centralized. Results for the small-scale fishery were consistent with the simulations. Our results suggest that strategic collection of social network data should be prioritized when species distributions are un-nested and when social networks are likely to be centralized.     

Integrating Modeling and Field Experiments to Evaluate Impacts of Vegetative Practices on Ponderosa Pine Watersheds1

Abstract: Determining watershed response to vegetation treatment has been the subject of numerous hydrologic studies over the years. However, generalizing the information obtained from traditional paired‐watershed studies to other watersheds in a region is problematic because of the empirical nature of such studies and the context dependence of hydrologic responses. This paper addresses the issue of generalizing hydrologic information through integration of process‐based modeling and field observations from small‐scale watershed experiments. To this end, the results from application of a process‐based model were compared with the results from small‐scale watershed experiments in ponderosa pine forests of Arizona. The model simulated treatment impacts reasonably well when compared to the traditional paired‐watershed approach. However, the model tended to overestimate water yields during periods of low flow, and there was a significant difference between the two approaches in the estimation of treatment impacts during the first four years following treatment. The results indicate that the lumped‐parameter modeling approach used here may be limited in its ability to detect small changes, and tends to overestimate changes that occur immediately following treatment. It is concluded that watershed experiments can be highly informative due to their direct examination of cause‐effect relationships, while process‐based models are useful for their processing power and focus on functional relationships. The integrated use of both watershed experiments and process‐based models provides a way to generalize hydrologic information, illuminate the processes behind landscape treatment effects, and to generate and test hypotheses.     

Robust detection protocols for uncertain introductions of invasive species

Two important features of real-world port inspections of shipping containers for invasive species are the general absence of underlying economic considerations and the climate of severe uncertainty that surrounds the likelihood of invasive species introductions. In this article we propose and illustrate a method for determining inspection protocols that address both of these issues. We seek inspection protocols that are robust in the sense that they maximize the range of uncertainty over which the expected loss from the introduction of an invasive species plus the costs of inspections do not exceed some critical value. These inspection strategies are practical and provide ready alternatives to existing protocols.     

Tibouchina pulchra (Cham.) Cogn., a native Atlantic Forest species, as a bio-indicator of ozone: visible injury

Tibouchina pulchra saplings were exposed to carbon filtered air (CF), ambient non-filtered air (NF) and ambient non-filtered air+40 ppb ozone (NF+O3) 8 h per day during two months. The AOT40 values at the end of the experiment were 48, 910 and 12,895 ppb h(-1), respectively, for the three treatments. After 25 days of exposure (AOT40=3871 ppb h(-1)), interveinal red stippling appeared in plants in the NF+O3 chamber. In the NF chamber, symptoms were observed only after 60 days of exposure (AOT40=910 ppb h(-1)). After 60 days, injured leaves per plant corresponded to 19% in NF+O3 and 1% in the NF treatment; and the average leaf area injured was 7% within the NF+O3 and 0.2% within the NF treatment. The extent of leaf area injured (leaf injury index) was mostly explained by the accumulated exposure of ozone (r2=0.89; p<0.05).     

基于正交设计的边坡稳定性影响因素敏感性分析

边坡的稳定性受多种因素的影响,应用正交设计对影响边坡的多因素进行了敏感性分析。首先对正交设计原理及用于结果分析的极差法和方差法进行了简单介绍,然后结合工程实例,说明了正交设计在边坡敏感性分析中的应用,最后用极差法和方差法对其结果进行分析,得出影响边坡的参数中,敏感性由大到小依次为:地震加速度α,粘聚力c,内摩擦角φ,库水位变化H,容重γ;其中地震加速度α,粘聚力c,内摩擦角φ是对该边坡影响最显著的因素。因此,在边坡治理时应注意地震和降雨对其稳定性产生的不利影响。     

ACCEPTING THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX: A CALCULATION ALGORITHM1

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has been calculated for about 30 years as a means of providing a single measure of meteorological drought severity. It was intended to retrospectively look at wet and dry conditions using water balance techniques. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a probability index that was developed to give a better representation of abnormal wetness and dryness than the Palmer indices. Before the user community will accept the SPI as an alternative to the Palmer indices, a standard method must be developed for computing the index. Standardization is necessary so that all users of the index will have a common basis for both spatial and temporal comparison of index values. If different probability distributions and models are used to describe an observed series of precipitation, then different SPI values may be obtained. This article describes the effect on the SPI values computed from different probability models as well as the effects on dry event characteristics. It is concluded that the Pearson Type III distribution is the “best” universal model, and that the reliability of the SPI is sample size dependent. It is also concluded that because of data limitations, SPIs with time scales longer than 24 months may be unreliable. An internet link is provided that will allow users to access Fortran 77 source code for calculating the SPI.     

Bulgarian emergency response models–validation against ETEX first release

In the paper, the performance of two Bulgarian dispersion models is tested against European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) first release data base. The first one is the LED puff model which was the core of the Bulgarian Emergency Response System during all releases of ETEX. The second one is the newly created Eulerian dispersion model EMAP. These models have two important features: they are PC-oriented and they use quite a limited amount of input meteorological information. First, a number of runs with various source configurations are made on meteorological data produced by ECMWF. The aim of these runs is to verify the models’ ability to simulate reliably ETEX first release. To this end, a set of statistical criteria selected in ATMES (Atmospheric Transport Models Evaluation Study, see Klug et al., 1992 are used. The best runs for both models are obtained when the source is presented as a column towering from the ground to heights of 400–700 m. These runs took part in the second phase of ETEX (ETEX-II), the so called ATMES-type exercise where EMAP ranked ninth and LED - fourteenth among 34 models. Here, additional sets of EMAP are presented where in the first run the value of the horizontal diffusion coefficient is varied and in the other runs different meteorological data sets are tested. The results obtained from the first run show that the values of K_h=4–6×10⁴ m² s^-1 produce fields which fit experimental data best. The other sets of runs show that the higher the frequency of the meteorological data, the better the simulation. The results can be improved by linear interpolation of the meteorological parameters with time, the best fitting obtained with interpolation at each time step.     

典型喀斯特河流溶解性有机质生物降解特性及其温度敏感性研究

喀斯特河流受特殊生物地球化学过程影响,其溶解性有机质(DOM)变化具有显著的区域特征.然而,当前对其DOM空间变化规律,特别是生物降解特性的研究十分有限,急需相关内容的补充.以我国典型喀斯特河流—芙蓉江为研究对象,探索了 DOM光学参数(a254、a350、E2/E3、S275～295、BIX、FI、FRI和HIX)的...