A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

Dynamic taxation schemes to manage irrigation-induced salinity

This paper uses a dynamic model to explore the issue of irrigation-induced salinity, which puts irrigation at risk in most irrigated areas throughout the world. We address the design of instruments that an irrigation district board could implement to induce irrigators to take sustainable irrigation decisions. In our approach, the irrigators located above an aquifer participate in the accumulation of groundwater, a stock pollution. We analyse input-based instruments to induce the agents to follow the optimal stock path.     

区域环境风险研究进展探讨

主要围绕国内外在区域环境风险领域的研究进展、趋势与不足进行分析评述,在此基础上提出了进行区域环境风险水平及阈值研究,并进行动态调控的研究新思路。     

随机模拟在常州运河水质规划中的应用

以常州运河的水质规划为实例,讨论了确定性水质模型的随机模拟。讨论中引进了主观概率和客观概率的概念,用泰勒级数确定客观概率分布,用可能最大机率法估计主观概率分布,并给出了在实施不同规划方案时的水质概率曲线和水质达标的保证率。计算结果表明,使水质恶化的各种随机因素的作用不容忽视,各种水污染治理措施只能降低水质超标的风险水平。     

低温高铁锰氨氮地下水两级生物净化快速启动

为了实现东北地区低温（5~6℃）高铁、锰、氨氮（TFe：9~15mg/L，Fe²⁺：6~12mg/L，NH₃-N：1.4~2.0mg/L，Mn²⁺：1.4~2.0mg/L）地下水的净化及解决同层净化中运行稳定性差、出水锰超标的问题，在水厂净化车间开展“两级曝气+两级过滤”工艺启动研究，采用差滤速和同滤速2种启动方式分别启动两级生物净化工艺.结果表明，2种启动方式分别在106，59d启动成功.同滤速启动可以有效的缩短两级生物净化的启动时间，铁、锰、氨氮去除负荷可达110.69，18.80，19.54g/（m²·h），沿程分析发现，铁在一级滤柱的60cm处即被去除至痕量；85.08%的氨氮在一级滤柱中去除，沿程各段去除均匀，14.92%的氨氮在二级滤柱中去除；锰的去除率和氧化活性去除区位受滤速及进水氨氮浓度影响较大，33.72%的锰在一级滤柱中去除，66.28%的锰在二级滤柱中去除，锰的去除仍然是滤池成熟的决定性因素.     

新亚铜灵--直接全差示光度法测定水中微量铜

实验了新亚铜灵--直接全差示光度法测定水中微量铜.与新亚铜灵萃取光度法相比较,该方法具有操作简单、灵敏度较高、不使用氯仿等优点.方法回收率为96%～103%,相对标准偏差为0.26%～3.6%,最低检出限为0.002mg/L.     

声凝并联合雾化预处理及其在过滤除尘中的应用

根据声凝并理论和雾化湿式除尘理论,建立了燃煤飞灰在声场联合雾化加湿作为预处理的过滤式除尘实验装置。分别在声场、雾化加湿、声场与雾化加湿相结合3种预处理条件下进行实验,确定合适的加湿量范围,得出不同条件下燃煤飞灰的去除效果。在声场联合雾化加湿条件下,分别研究了声压级和雾化加湿量对飞灰的去除率的影响。结果表明,声场和雾化加湿联合作用能有效提高燃煤PM2.5去除率。以声场联合雾化加湿作为预处理进行过滤除尘实验,结果表明,虽然对高效滤料的除尘效率提高作用有限,但是该预处理可减轻滤袋负荷,有效延缓压差增长,降低清灰频率。由于采用表面覆膜滤材,加湿量控制得当可避免产生"糊袋"现象。     

废旧印刷电路板差速破碎分析

为了解决废旧印刷电路板资源化过程中的粗碎问题,提出差速破碎方法;根据差速机理分析,利用自主研制双齿辊粗碎机对废旧印刷电路板基板进行差速破碎实验;最后利用Ansys APDL模块对粗碎机辊齿进行校核模拟。实验结果证明,利用差速破碎可以充分利用材料的抗拉、抗剪强度小于抗压强度的特性,能够取得良好的破碎效果,差速破碎结果呈拱形分布形式;模拟结果证明,在差速破碎过程中设备能够保持良好工作状态,可以交换2个齿辊的运转速度减小疲劳破坏。差速破碎为废旧印刷电路板资源化过程中的破碎理论提供支持,并且为废旧印刷电路板粗碎的设备选择提供参考。     

基于长光程差分吸收光谱原理的污染物监测系统在化工区的应用

应用一种基于长光程差分吸收光谱(LP-DOAS)原理的仪器,对上海市典型化学工业区进行了长期自动监测。该测量系统搭建于化工区西北方向边界上,一旦污染物浓度超标就会报警,起到边界围栏的作用。选取同站点GC-FID系统测量的甲苯数据与LP-DOAS系统测量的甲苯数据进行了比对分析,2台仪器日均浓度值的拟合系数R²为0.87,验证了长光程测量系统数据的有效性。结合西北边界监测站点的气象数据对测量的HCl数据进行日均、月度平均分析,发现HCl的浓度变化主要与化工区的排放有关。采用基于拉格朗日传输、扩散模式的HYSPLIT_4模式分别对2017—2019年中每年6月份和2017年全年进行污染物追迹分析,发现2017—2019年中每年6月份有95%左右的污染物扩散时会经过上海城区,对上海地区造成影响。进一步分析表明,2017年,夏季化工区排放的污染物对上海城区的影响最大,秋季对上海城区的影响最小。上述研究结果可为上海市大气环境监测及治理提供参考。     

Assessment of lead pollution in topsoils of a southern Italy area: Analysis of urban and peri-urban environment

Exposure to lead (Pb) may affect adversely human health. Mapping soil Pb contents is essential to obtain a quantitative estimate of potential risk of Pb contamination. The main aim of this paper was to determine the soil Pb concentrations in the urban and peri-urban area of Cosenza–Rende to map their spatial distribution and assess the probability that soil Pb concentration exceeds a critical threshold that might cause concern for human health. Samples were collected at 149 locations from residual and non-residual topsoil in gardens, parks, flower-beds, and agricultural fields. Fine earth fraction of soil samples was analyzed by X-ray Fluorescence spectrometry. Stochastic images generated by the sequential Gaussian simulation were jointly combined to calculate the probability of exceeding the critical threshold that could be used to delineate the potentially risky areas. Results showed areas in which Pb concentration values were higher to the Italian regulatory values. These polluted areas were quite large and likely, they could create a significant health risk for human beings and vegetation in the near future. The results demonstrated that the proposed approach can be used to study soil contamination to produce geochemical maps, and identify hot-spot areas for soil Pb concentration.