Multi-stand Forest Management under a Climatic Risk: Do Time and Risk Preferences Matter?

We propose a stochastic dynamic programming framework to model the management of a multi-stand forest under climate risk (strong wind occurrence). The preferences of the forest-owner are specified by a non-expected utility in order to separately analyze intertemporal substitution and risk aversion effects. A numerical method is developed to characterize the optimal forest management policies and the optimal consumption-saving strategy. The stochastic dynamic programming framework is applied to a non-industrial private forest-owner located in North-East of France. We show that the optimal decisions both depend upon risk and time preferences. The authors would like to thank participants at the international conference on Economics of Sustainable Forest Management in Toronto, at the PARIS 1 seminar on Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, at the 2004 Applied Microeconomics Conference in Lille and at the 13th annual conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists at Budapest.     

Changes in bird‐migration patterns associated with human‐induced mortality

Many bird populations have recently changed their migratory behavior in response to alterations of the environment. We collected data over 16 years on male Great Bustards (Otis tarda), a species showing a partial migratory pattern (sedentary and migratory birds coexisting in the same breeding groups). We conducted population counts and radio tracked 180 individuals to examine differences in survival rates between migratory and sedentary individuals and evaluate possible effects of these differences on the migratory pattern of the population. Overall, 65% of individuals migrated and 35% did not. The average distance between breeding and postbreeding areas of migrant individuals was 89.9 km, and the longest average movement of sedentary males was 3.8 km. Breeding group and migration distance had no effect on survival. However, mortality of migrants was 2.4 to 3.5 times higher than mortality of sedentary birds. For marked males, collision with power lines was the main cause of death from unnatural causes (37.6% of all deaths), and migratory birds died in collisions with power lines more frequently than sedentary birds (21.3% vs 6.3%). The percentage of sedentary individuals increased from 17% in 1997 to 45% in 2012. These results were consistent with data collected from radio‐tracked individuals: The proportion of migratory individuals decreased from 86% in 1997–1999 to 44% in 2006–2010. The observed decrease in the migratory tendency was not related to climatic changes (temperatures did not change over the study period) or improvements in habitat quality (dry cereal farmland area decreased in the main study area). Our findings suggest that human‐induced mortality during migration may be an important factor shaping the migration patterns of species inhabiting humanized landscapes.     

Implications of simultaneity in a physical damage function

A modeler must often rely on highly simplified representations of complex physical systems when analyzing associated economic issues. Herein, we consider a management problem in which a bioeconomic system exhibits simultaneity in processes governing productivity and damage. In this case, it may benefit the producer to sacrifice productivity to reduce the costs associated with increased damage. We specify empirically a structural damage relationship that explains the biological process by which an invasive species damages a host and estimate the structural model and its reduced form with an exceptional dataset on infestation of olives by the olive fruit fly. We contrast the results of these models with the approach typically taken in the economic literature, which expresses damage as a function of pest density. The population-based approach introduces significantly greater bias into the individual grower's choice of damage-control inputs than estimates based on the structural model.     

An assessment methodology for successional systems. I. Null models and the regulatory framework

Standard procedures for evaluating environmental impact involve comparison between before and after conditions or scenarios or between treatment and control site pairs. In many cases, however, endogenous directional change (natural succession) is expected to occur at a significant rate over the period of concern, particularly for manmade systems such as impoundments. Static evaluations do not provide an adequate approach to such problems. A new evaluation frame is proposed. Nominal system behavior over time is characterized by a stochastic envelope around a nominal trajectory. We show that both the state variance and the sampling variance can change over time. In this context, environmental regulations can be framed as constraints, targets, or conformance to ideal trajectories. Statistical tests for determining noncompliance are explored relative to process variance, sample error, and sample size. Criteria are elucidated for choosing properties to monitor, sample size, and sampling interval.     

CHEMICAL ANALYSIS OF CO2 REMOVAL IN TRAY AERATORS1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a discussion of the chemistry of CO₂ removal in tray aerators, and different sets of equations that are applicable to several initial water chemical conditions are proposed. These chemical equations and a statistical model to predict the kinetic constant were tested with field data observed by other researchers in pilot units and in a full scale plant. The water temperature in their experiments was around 15°C.     

几种事故预测方法的探讨

本文根据生产单位事故发生的随机性特点,论证了未来时段中事故次数及其时间分布等各项指标,是能够用多种随机数学模型和灰色系统理论来预测的。用非随机的函数模型预測事故是不合适的。给出了几种事故预測方法,并提出了几种值得研究和试用的方法。     

EFFECTS OF TIME STEP SIZE IN IMPLICIT DYNAMIC ROUTING1

ABSTRACT The effects of the size of the Δt time step used in the integration of the implicit difference equations of unsteady open-channel flow are determined for numerous typical hydrographs with durations in the order of days or even weeks. Truncation errors related to the size of the Δt time step cause a numerical distortion (dispersion and attenuation) of the computed transient. The magnitude of the distortion is related directly to the size of the time step, the length of channel reach, and the channel resistance and inversely to the time of rise of the hydrograph. The type of finite difference expression which replaces spatial derivatives and non-derivative terms in the partial differential equations of unsteady flow has an important influence on the magnitude of the numerical distortion, as well as the numerical stability of the implicit difference equations. Time step sizes in the range of 3 to 6 hrs generally tend to minimize the combination of required computation time and numerical distortion of transients having a time of rise of the order of several days.     

UNIT HYDROGRAPHS – A COMPARATIVE STUDY1

ABSTRACT. Unit hydrographs derived by using two methods, linear programming and least squares, are compared. Test data comprise rainfall and runoff information from four storms over the North Branch Potomac River near Cumberland, Maryland. The mathematical bases of these methods for unit-hydrograph derivation are explained. The linear programming method minimizes the sum of absolute deviations, and the least squares method minimizes the sum of the squares of deviations. Computer subroutines are readily available for application of these methods. The unit hydrographs derived with the two methods are practically the same for storms 2 and 3, but differ somewhat for storms 1 and 4. However, the reconstituted direct surface runoff hydrographs are similar to those observed with the exception of the hydrograph for storm 4 which had a relatively more non-uniform rainfall excess of a considerably larger duration.     

Assessment of lead pollution in topsoils of a southern Italy area: Analysis of urban and peri-urban environment

Exposure to lead (Pb) may affect adversely human health. Mapping soil Pb contents is essential to obtain a quantitative estimate of potential risk of Pb contamination. The main aim of this paper was to determine the soil Pb concentrations in the urban and peri-urban area of Cosenza–Rende to map their spatial distribution and assess the probability that soil Pb concentration exceeds a critical threshold that might cause concern for human health. Samples were collected at 149 locations from residual and non-residual topsoil in gardens, parks, flower-beds, and agricultural fields. Fine earth fraction of soil samples was analyzed by X-ray Fluorescence spectrometry. Stochastic images generated by the sequential Gaussian simulation were jointly combined to calculate the probability of exceeding the critical threshold that could be used to delineate the potentially risky areas. Results showed areas in which Pb concentration values were higher to the Italian regulatory values. These polluted areas were quite large and likely, they could create a significant health risk for human beings and vegetation in the near future. The results demonstrated that the proposed approach can be used to study soil contamination to produce geochemical maps, and identify hot-spot areas for soil Pb concentration.     

An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for risk assessment of groundwater contamination

An integrated fuzzy-stochastic risk assessment (IFSRA) approach was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with site conditions, environmental guidelines, and health impact criteria. The contaminant concentrations in groundwater predicted from a numerical model were associated with probabilistic uncertainties due to the randomness in modeling input parameters, while the consequences of contaminant concentrations violating relevant environmental quality guidelines and health evaluation criteria were linked with fuzzy uncertainties. The contaminant of interest in this study was xylene. The environmental quality guideline was divided into three different strictness categories: "loose", "medium" and "strict". The environmental-guideline-based risk (ER) and health risk (HR) due to xylene ingestion were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The ER and HR risk levels were divided into five categories of "low", "low-to-medium", "medium", "medium-to-high" and "high", respectively. The general risk levels included six categories ranging from "low" to "very high". The fuzzy membership functions of the related fuzzy events and the fuzzy rule base were established based on a questionnaire survey. Thus the IFSRA integrated fuzzy logic, expert involvement, and stochastic simulation within a general framework. The robustness of the modeling processes was enhanced through the effective reflection of the two types of uncertainties as compared with the conventional risk assessment approaches. The developed IFSRA was applied to a petroleum-contaminated groundwater system in western Canada. Three scenarios with different environmental quality guidelines were analyzed, and reasonable results were obtained. The risk assessment approach developed in this study offers a unique tool for systematically quantifying various uncertainties in contaminated site management, and it also provides more realistic support for remediation-related decisions.