A Markov model for assessing ecological stability properties

Ecological systems are frequently modeled as dynamic systems. It is natural then to use the techniques of dynamic systems theory to analyze such models. However, the methods and results that are produced by dynamic systems theory do not always capture the aspects of ecological systems that are of greatest interest to managers and decision-makers. We identify some of the challenges of using dynamic systems theory to explore ecological systems and propose an alternative approach that emphasizes the understanding of transient effects in light of uncertainty and variability. We illustrate this method by an examination of a model for phosphorus levels in fresh water lakes.     

The pattern of species turnover resulting from stochastic population dynamics: The model and field data

The model of random population dynamics in a sampling site returns geometric distribution of longevities of continuous presence (=persistence) and Poisson distribution of the presence–absence transitions. This discrete-time stochastic process describes the presence–absence pattern observed in the beetles surveyed 6 years on Mount Carmel, Israel. Homogeneous pools of species mostly on the Families rank, exhibit the predicted by the model patterns. Conformity to an ergodic hypothesis is the criterion of ecological homogeneity. This criterion assumes the equivalence of short-term behavior of entire pool and long-term behavior of any species from this pool. The pool of all 801 species of Order Coleoptera does not match the model. Thus a taxon of an arbitrary rank may not be considered a priory as a unit of ecological study. Determined from field data parameters of the model are biased and magnitude of the bias depends on longevity of the survey. Parameter of distribution depends also on species tolerance, which is the level adaptation of given species to given environment in given time interval. Random process of species turnover may be considered as a game of species to gain their presence against deteriorative fluctuations of environmental conditions.     

Evaluation of discrete host–parasitoid models for diamondback moth and Diadegma semiclausum field time population density series

The performance of discrete mathematical models to describe the population dynamics of diamondback moth (DBM) (Plutella xylostella L.) and its parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum was investigated. The parameter values for several well-known models (Nicholson–Bailey, Hassell and Varley, Beddington, Free and Lawton, May, Holling type 2, 3 and Getz and Mills functional responses) were estimated. The models were tested on 20 consecutive sets of time series data collected at 14 days interval for pest and parasitoid populations obtained from a highland cabbage growing area in eastern Kenya. Model parameters were estimated from minimized squared difference between the numerical solution of the model equations and the empirical data using Powell's method. Maximum calculated DBM growth rates varied between 0.02 and 0.07. The carrying capacity determined at 16.5 DBM/plant by the Beddington et al. model was within the range of field data. However, all the estimated parameter values relating to the parasitoid, including the instantaneous searching rate (0.07–0.28), per capita searching efficiency (0.20–0.27), search time (5.20–5.33), handling time (0.77–0.90), and parasitism aggregation index (0.33), were well outside the range encountered empirically. All models evaluated for DBM under Durbin–Watson criteria, except the May model, were not autocorrelated with respect to residuals. In contrast, the criteria applied to the parasitoid residuals showed strong autocorrelations. Thus, these models failed to estimate parasitoid dynamics. We conclude that the interactions of the DBM with its parasitoid cannot be explained by any of the models tested. Two factors may be associated with this failure. First, the parasitoid in this integrated biological control system may not be playing a major role in regulating DBM population. Second, and perhaps more likely, poor correlations reflect gross inadequacies in the theoretical assumptions that underlie the existing models.     

Population as an oscillating system

In this paper we present a new approach describing population dynamics based on the view of a population as an oscillating system. To develop a mathematical model of an oscillating population, we applied a third-order differential equation. Our model describes population dynamics within a parametric-temporal continuum, formed by the relative values of population growth and decrease over time. In this paper we also illustrate how our oscillative model effectively compliments the existing suite of models in population dynamics.     

Testing the Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM) as a management tool in a shallow temperate estuary of south Europe (Mondego, Portugal)

A long-term monitoring program has been carried out since the early 1990s in the Mondego estuary, on Portugal's west coast, which is presently under heavy human pressure. In this shallow warm-temperate estuary, a significant macroalgal proliferation has been observed, which is a clear sign of nutrient enrichment. As a result of competition with algae, the extension of the seagrass meadows (mainly Zostera noltii) has been reduced. The present paper examined the applicability of a holistic Stochastic Dynamic Methodology (StDM) in predicting the tendencies of trophic key-components (macrophytes, macroalgae, benthic macroinvertebrate and wading birds) as a response to the changes in estuarine environmental conditions. The StDM is a sequential modelling process developed in order to predict the ecological status of changed ecosystems, from which management strategies can be designed. The data used in the dynamic model construction included true gradients of environmental changes and was sampled from January 1993 to September 1995 and from December 1998 to December 2005. The dynamic model developed was preceded by a conventional multivariate statistical procedure performed to discriminate the significant relationships between the selected ecological components. The model validation was based on independent data collected from January 1996 to January 1997 and from February 1999 to April 2000 for all the state variables considered. Overall, the simulation results are encouraging since they seem to demonstrate the StDM reliability in capturing the trophic dynamics of the studied estuary, by predicting the behavioural pattern for the most part of the components selected, with a focus on the Zostera noltii meadows recovery after the implementation of important management measures.     

A hierarchical Bayesian non-linear spatio-temporal model for the spread of invasive species with application to the Eurasian Collared-Dove

The spread of invasive species is a long studied subject that garners much interest in the ecological research community. Historically the phenomenon has been approached using a purely deterministic mathematical framework (usually involving differential equations of some form). These methods, while scientifically meaningful, are generally highly simplified and fail to account for uncertainty in the data and process, of which our knowledge could not possibly exist without error. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model for population spread that accommodates data sources with errors, dependence structures between population dynamics parameters, and takes into account prior scientific understanding via non-linear relationships between model parameters and space-time response variables. We model the process (i.e., the bird population in this case) as a Poisson response with spatially varying diffusion coefficients as well as a logistic population growth term using a common reaction-diffusion equation that realistically mimics the ecological process. We focus the application on the ongoing invasion of the Eurasian Collared-Dove.     

Assessment of lead pollution in topsoils of a southern Italy area: Analysis of urban and peri-urban environment

Exposure to lead (Pb) may affect adversely human health. Mapping soil Pb contents is essential to obtain a quantitative estimate of potential risk of Pb contamination. The main aim of this paper was to determine the soil Pb concentrations in the urban and peri-urban area of Cosenza–Rende to map their spatial distribution and assess the probability that soil Pb concentration exceeds a critical threshold that might cause concern for human health. Samples were collected at 149 locations from residual and non-residual topsoil in gardens, parks, flower-beds, and agricultural fields. Fine earth fraction of soil samples was analyzed by X-ray Fluorescence spectrometry. Stochastic images generated by the sequential Gaussian simulation were jointly combined to calculate the probability of exceeding the critical threshold that could be used to delineate the potentially risky areas. Results showed areas in which Pb concentration values were higher to the Italian regulatory values. These polluted areas were quite large and likely, they could create a significant health risk for human beings and vegetation in the near future. The results demonstrated that the proposed approach can be used to study soil contamination to produce geochemical maps, and identify hot-spot areas for soil Pb concentration.     

药物混粉爆炸事故及防范对策的研究

从近几年制药行业频繁爆炸事故出发,分析制药行业爆炸事故的种类,从粉尘爆炸入手,以某制药企业为研究对象,对其爆炸粉体克拉维酸钾进行了爆炸参数测试,运用20L球形粉尘爆炸测试装置测定其爆炸下限为40g/m3。同时运用差热扫描热分析法对其进行放热反应进行研究,再利用毛细管气相色谱法对该混合物中是否存在可燃气体进行了评定,发现其存在丙酮可燃气体,但含量较低为9.3×10-5。针对上述特点,从技术和管理角度出发,分析应对措施以及常见的问题,设计了混粉机械人机界面,编制了安全检查表,对该类共性问题进行了归纳,以供防范药物混粉事故发生参考。     

长江下游居民区降水地表径流的污染特征

城市地表径流是重要非点源污染源之一,其研究对于我国城市水环境质量控制具有重要的现实意义.本文选择我国长江下游地区典型居民区下垫面作为研究对象,采集不同下垫面的多场降雨径流,探究分析其中主要金属污染物和溶解性有机质（DOM）的分布、结构特征和污染负荷.结果发现,不同下垫面地表径流中重金属均呈现一定程度的超标现象,其浓度由高到低排序为：Zn > Cu > Pb > Sb > Cd,不同下垫面地表径流污染特征呈现了显著的差异,交通主干道的金属和DOM污染均最为严重;不同下垫面有机质结构特性也呈现出了明显的差异;地表径流DOM与阳离子金属污染物（Cu）的结合作用强烈,紫外差分光谱和傅里叶变换红外光谱显示其结合位点位于羧基、酚羟基和C＝C结构,而类金属污染物（Sb）则结合较弱,其在径流中可能以游离态存在;研究区域不同金属污染物对临近水体产生的污染年负荷依次为：Zn > Cu > Pb > Sb > Cd,无锡和南京采样区DOM的单位面积污染负荷分别为0.93 g·（m²·a）^-1和8.72 g·（m²·a）^-1.结果表明需要针对不同下垫面属性和不同污染物结构特征开展对应的污染拦截措施,相关结果可以为长江下游流域水环境质量改善提供参考信息.     

新亚铜灵--直接全差示光度法测定水中微量铜

实验了新亚铜灵--直接全差示光度法测定水中微量铜.与新亚铜灵萃取光度法相比较,该方法具有操作简单、灵敏度较高、不使用氯仿等优点.方法回收率为96%～103%,相对标准偏差为0.26%～3.6%,最低检出限为0.002mg/L.